Monday, April 14, 2014

MLB Instant Replay Review Statistics: Week 2 Sabermetrics

Instant Replay Review Statistics and Sabermetrics are now available for MLB Week 2. As the numbers and trends begin to form, Close Call Sports and the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League continues with the strategic statistics reporting, or what may be the first measure of umpire-centric sabermetrics in professional baseball. First, some key terms:

Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP): The percent of Replay Reviews in which an umpire's call is confirmed or upheld (stands). For instance, a RAP of .750 for n=4 indicates that three calls were affirmed (confirmed/stands) via Replay Review while the other was reversed (overturned). A higher figure (trending towards 1.000) indicates greater calling accuracy; a lower figure (trending towards .000) indicates a greater real-time call error rate. Also known as QOC (Quality of Correctness).

Replay Percentage of Success (RPS): The percent of Replay Reviews in which a ball club and/or its Manager receives an overturned call that benefits the team. Includes both Crew Chief Reviews (initiated by the umpires) and Manager's Challenges (initiated by the teams). For instance, RPS of .333 for n=3 indicates that two calls were affirmed (confirmed/stands) via Replay Review while the other was reversed (overturned). Alternatively, 1.000 - RAP = RPS.

Manager's Challenge Success Percentage (CSP): A subset of RPS, this statistic considers just those Replay Reviews that were effected as the result of a Manager's Challenge. For both RPS and CSP, a higher number (1.000) indicates greater success in the Replay Review process; a lower figure (.000) indicates less successful outcomes.

With Week 2 of the MLB Regular Season in the books, the UEFL recaps professional baseball's "this time it counts" living experiment with Instant Replay Reviews. Bearing in mind that with n=84, our sample size is relatively small and unreliable, here, combined with Wk 1, are the "early returns" numbers:

Key bullet points:
"Team Most Used" (Made use of Replay Review most often): Oakland Athletics - 8.
"Manager's Challenge Leaders" (Most challenges filed): T Francona, B Ausmus, J Gibbons - 4.
"Most successful Manager" (Manager with highest CSP): F Gonzalez, T Collins - 1.000 in 2/2.
"Least successful Manager" (Manager with lowest CSP): J Gibbons - .000 in 0/4.
"Umpire most questioned" (Ump with most Replay Reviews): Bob Davidson - 5 (.600 RAP).
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): Vic Carapazza, Jim Reynolds - 1.000 RAP in 3/3.
"Umpire of greatest overturn %" (Umpire with lowest RAP): [11 Tied] - .000 RAP in 0/1.
"Overall affirmation or QOC percentage" (Overall RAP): .667 (56/84 Affirmed Replay Reviews).
Team Status Pre-Review (Winning or Losing prior to review [Win-Loss-Tied]): 31-24-29.
Team Status Post-Review (Won or Lost the game [Wins-Losses]): 42-42. (Delta: 11-18; WPCT: .379).

Actual data:
Games Played: 185
Replay Reviews and Decisions Rendered: 84 (on pace for 1,103 [-27 from Wk 1] Replay Reviews)
- Crew Chief Reviews (Replay Reviews initiated by the Umpiring Crew Chief): 20 (24%)
- Manager's Challenges (Replay Reviews initiated by the Club's Field Manager): 64 (76%)

Teams Most Used - Quantity of Replay Reviews (both Crew Chief & Manager's Challenge)
1. Oakland Athletics: 8 (5 Crew Chief Reviews [.800 RAP], 3 Challenges [1.000 RAP]).
2. Chicago Cubs: 7 (1 Crew Chief Review [1.000 RAP], 6 Challenges [.500 RAP]).
3. Cleveland Indians: 5 (1 Crew Chief Review [1.000 RAP], 4 Challenges [.500 RAP]).
3. New York Yankees: 5 (2 Crew Chief Reviews [1.000 RAP], 3 Challenges [.333 RAP]).
3. Tampa Bay Rays: 5 (5 Challenges [.600 RAP]).
3. Toronto Blue Jays: 5 (1 Crew Chief Review [1.000 RAP], 4 Challenges [1.000 RAP]).

Most Successful Managers - Managers with Highest CSP
1. Fredi Gonzalez (Atlanta Braves): 1.000 CSP (2/2 Challenges Overturned).
1. Terry Collins (New York Mets): 1.000 CSP (2/2 Challenges Overturned).
3. Ron Roenicke (Milwakee Brewers): 1.000 CSP (1/1 Challenge Overturned).
3. Ron Gardenhire (Minnesota Twins): 1.000 CSP (1/1 Challenge Overturned).
3. Bud Black (San Diego Padres): 1.000 CSP (1/1 Challenge Overturned).
6. Joe Girardi (New York Yankees): .667 CSP (2/3 Challenges Overturned).

Least Successful Managers - Managers with Lowest CSP
1. John Gibbons (Toronto Blue Jays): .000 CSP (0/4 Challenges Overturned).
2. Bob Melvin (Oakland Athletics): .000 CSP (0/3 Challenges Overturned).
2. Matt Williams (Washington Nationals): .000 CSP (0/3 Challenges Overturned).
4. John Farrell (Boston Red Sox): .000 CSP (0/2 Challenges Overturned).
5. Bryan Price (Cincinnati Reds): .000 CSP (0/1 Challenge Overturned).
5. Robin Ventura (Chicago White Sox): .000 CSP (0/1 Challenge Overturned).
5. Don Mattingly (Los Angeles Dodgers): .000 CSP (0/1 Challenge Overturned).
5. Mike Redmond (Miami Marlins): .000 CSP (0/1 Challenge Overturned).

Most Accurate Umpires - Umpire with greatest RAP
1. Vic Carapazza: 1.000 RAP (3/3 Replays Affirmed).
1. Jim Reynolds: 1.000 RAP (3/3 Replays Affirmed).
3. Chris Guccione: 1.000 RAP (2/2 Replays Affirmed).
3. Brian Knight: 1.000 RAP (2/2 Replays Affirmed).
3. Jerry Meals: 1.000 RAP (2/2 Replays Affirmed).
3. Quinn Wolcott: 1.000 RAP (2/2 Replays Affirmed).
3. Jim Wolf: 1.000 RAP (2/2 Replays Affirmed).

Umpire of Greatest Overturn % - Umpire with lowest RAP
1. Cory Blaser, Mark Carlson, Gary Cederstrom, Gerry Davis, Mike DiMuro, Marty Foster, Pat Hoberg, James Hoye, Mike Muchlinski, Dale Scott, John Tumpane: .000 RAP (0/1 Replays Affirmed).
12. Chris Conroy: .333 RAP (1/3 Replays Affirmed).


Post a Comment