Wednesday, June 1, 2016

MLB Ejection & Replay Sabermetrics - May 2016

Baseball is officially back on track: 65 ejections through May sets the pace for 203 ejections by regular season's end, or four more than 2014's 199-ejection season, which itself marked an increase of 11% over 2013's 180 ejections. In all, MLB experienced less than 203 regular season ejections from 2009 through 2014, with a high of 201 in 2010 and low of 165 in 2009, before 2015 brought with it 212 ejections.

Regarding replay, 498 Replay Reviews averages out to roughly one review for every 1.6 games played. Arguing Replay Review decisions continued to be a non-factor, cementing the finality of Replay Review in baseball. Further supporting this theory, the one Replay Review ejection in 2016 concerned potential bona fide slide interference—a new rule for this season.

As I wrote in last month's Ejections & Replay Sabermetrics analysis, ejections were largely down in April due to a distinct lack of Throwing At and Fighting activity (there were zero fights and one throwing-at ejection in April 2016). Baseball has rectified the issue in May, thanks in large part to this Texas brawl, and Throwing At, Fighting and overall ejections are now back to about-average levels. We are again on pace for a 200+ ejections season.

With that out of the way, here's the Ejection & Instant Replay Review Statistics and Umpire Sabermetrics for April 2016. The following presentation includes summaries and analyses for ejections and replay data gathered during the first month of the 2016 regular season.

Summary, Ejections.
>> 65 Total Regular Season Ejections through May 31, 2016 (on pace for 203 ejections this season).
>> Umpires were 63.3% accurate on calls associated with ejection.
>> The Blue Jays were ejected more often than any other team.
>> Nine teams have been each been ejected just once apiece.
>> Manager John Gibbons of the Toronto Blue Jays led all managers in ejections.
>> Players Yunel Escobar of the LA Angels and Josh Donaldson of the Jays led all players in ejections.
>> Umpire Dale Scott led all umpires in ejections.
>> Chief Dale Scott's crew led all umpire crews in ejections.
>> Most ejections occurred in the 8th inning; Ejections from 7th and on comprised 49% of all tosses.
>> Most ejections occurred on Sundays. Weekend series (Fri-Sun) featured 55% of all heave-ho's.
>> The most common reason for ejection was Balls/Strikes, followed by Throwing At and Fighting.

Summary, Replay Reviews.
>> 498 Total Replay Reviews, of which calls were affirmed 54% of the time (46% overturned).
>> The Washington Nationals used replay more than any other team, but were fairly inaccurate.
>> The A's were the League's most successful team in review, with less than half as many reviews.
>> The New York Yankees experienced fewer reviews than any other team.
>> Umpires Miller, Hudson, Davis & Carlson had 11 of their calls reviewed, more than any other umpire.
>> Jeff Nelson's crew led all of baseball in replay activity.
>> Umpire DJ Reyburn led the league in accuracy with all of his calls affirmed by replay.
>> Umpire Dan Iassogna experienced the highest rate of his calls being overturned by replay.
>> Most reviews occurred in the 8th inning. Reviews from 7th and on comprised 46% of all reviews.
>> Most reviews occurred on Sundays; Calls were most often overturned in daytime conditions.
>> The most common reason for review was Out/Safe, followed by Pulled Foot and Interference.

For detailed sabermetric analysis of MLB umpire ejections and instant replay review outcomes, follow the "read more" link below.

Total Games Played Through April 30, 2016: 777 of 2430 (32.0% of the season schedule).

Umpire Ejection Sabermetrics
Ejections: 65. At this pace (65 E / 777 G), there will be 203 Ejections at regular season's end.
"Team most active" (Team with most Ejections): TOR 10; PIT 5; TEX, NYM, MIN, CWS, BOS 4.
"Team least active" (Team with least Ejections): TB, NYY, LAD, KC, CLE, CHC, BAL, ATL, ARI 1.
"Manager ejections leader" (Most Ejections): John Gibbons 4; 6 Tied 2.
"Player ejections leader" (Player ejection leader): Yunel Escobar, Josh Donaldson 2.
"Umpire leader" (Umpire with most Ejections): Dale Scott 6; Jeff Kellogg 4; Dan Iassogna 3.
"Crew most active" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Ejections): Scott 12; Nelson, Miller, Kellogg 5.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest QOC): Kellogg, Tumpane & Tichenor - QOCY 1.000 (2/2).
"Overall QOC percentage" (Overall QOC Y value): .633 (31 Y / 18 N) + 16 Irrecusable = 65 Total.
"Team Status Pre-Ejection" (Winning-Losing-Tied [W-L-T] Record prior to Ejection): 15-38-12.
"Team Status Post-Ejection" (Game Record [W-L]): 22-43. (Delta: 7-5; WPCT: .583).
"Team Status" Change, by QOC: QOCY 7-0 (WPCT 1.000); QOCU 1-1 (.500); QOCN 0-4 (.000).

By Inning: 8 (16), 3 (10), 9 (9), 6 (8), 5 (7), 4 (7), 7 (6), 12 (1), 1 (1). [Inning #2: 0 Ejections.]
By Reason: Balls/Strikes (39), Throwing At (10), Fighting (4), Replay Review (3), Balk (3).
By Day of Week: Sunday (14), Saturday (13), Wednesday (11), Friday (9), Monday (9), Tuesday (6), Thursday (3).

Umpire Instant Replay Review Sabermetrics
Replay Reviews & Decisions Rendered: 498, .540 RAP (269/498).
"Team Most Used" (Made use of Replay Review most often): WAS 26; SF 24; STL, SD, MIA 23.
"Team Least Used" (Least use of Replay): NYY 8; CWS, NYM, OAK 10; SEA 11.
"Most successful team in review" (Team with highest TSP): Oakland A's - .700 (7/10).
"Least successful team in review" (Team with lowest TSP): Houston Astros - .308 (4/13).
"Umpire most questioned" (Most Replay Reviews): Miller, Hudson, Davis, Carlson 11.
"Crew most questioned" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Reviews): Nelson 38; Joyce 33.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): DJ Reyburn - 1.000 in 8/8.
"Ump of greatest overturn" (Umpire with lowest RAP): Dan Iassogna - .000 in 0/4.

Actual data (Raw Data for Replay Reviews):
- By Inning: 8 (77), 7 (74), 9 (57), 5 (57), 4 (48), 6 (47), 3 (43), 3 (43), 1 (41), 2 (34), Extras (20).
- By Reason: Out/Safe (337), Out/Pulled Foot (35), INT/No INT (16), HR/Fan INT (15), HBP/No (12).
- By Day of Week: Sun (95), Tues (83), Sat (81), Wed (72), Mon (67), Fri (64), Thurs (36).


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