Thursday, October 8, 2015

Discussion of 2015 AL and NL Division Series

Postseason umpire discussion continues with the AL and NL Division Series. Notes include home plate umpire performance according to pitch f/x and UEFL Rules 6-2-b-a (horizontal bound, "Kulpa Rule") and 6-2-b-b (vertical strike zone, "Miller Rule"). Plays include significant plays and instant replay reviews, if such plays occur. Call +/- also included/highlighted.

- 10/08, TEX@TOR Gm 1: James Hoye: pfx (84/87 Balls + 42/43 Strikes = 126/130 = 96.9%) +2 TOR.
- 10/08, HOU@KC Gm 1: Lance Barksdale: pfx (87/88 Balls + 47/56 Strikes = 134/144 = 93.1%) +2 KC.

- 10/09, TEX@TOR Gm 2: Vic Carapazza: pfx (149/154 Balls + 64/74 Strikes = 213/228 = 93.4%) +7 TOR.
- 10/09, HOU@KC Gm 2: Angel Hernandez: pfx (103/104 Balls + 45/47 Strikes = 148/151 = 98.0%) +1 KC.
- 10/09, CHC@STL Gm 1: Phil Cuzzi: pfx (86/87 Balls + 36/42 Strikes = 122/129 = 94.6%) +3 STL.
- 10/09, NYM@LAD Gm 1: Alan Porter: pfx (94/97 Balls + 37/39 Strikes = 131/136 = 96.3%) +1 LAD.

- 10/10, CHC@STL Gm 2: Bill Welke: pfx (90/94 Balls + 44/44 Strikes = 134/138 = 97.1%) +0 NU.
- 10/10, NYM@LAD Gm 2: Jim Wolf: pfx (95/96 Balls + 39/41 Strikes = 134/137 = 97.8%) +3 LAD.

- 10/11, KC@HOU Gm 3: Mike Everitt: pfx (101/101 Balls + 38/45 Strikes = 139/146 = 95.2%) +5 HOU.
- 10/11, TOR@TEX Gm 3: Alfonso Marquez: pfx (103/106 Balls + 48/48 Strikes = 151/154 = 98.1%) +1 TOR.

- 10/12, KC@HOU Gm 4: Ron Kulpa: pfx (124/126 Balls + 46/48 Strikes = 170/174 = 97.7%) +2 KC.
- 10/12, TOR@TEX Gm 4: Marvin Hudson: pfx (104/113 Balls + 57/60 Strikes = 161/173 = 93.1%) +2 TOR.
- 10/12, STL@CHC Gm 3: Mike Winters: pfx (119/122 Balls + 52/56 Strikes = 171/178 = 96.1%) +3 CHC.
- 10/12, LAD@NYM Gm 3: Greg Gibson: pfx (117/121 Balls + 61/64 Strikes = 178/185 = 96.2%) +1 LAD.

- 10/13, STL@CHC Gm 4: Mark Carlson: pfx (98/102 Balls + 36/37 Strikes = 134/139 = 96.4%) +1 STL.
- 10/13, LAD@NYM Gm 4: Chris Guccione: pfx (91/96 Balls + 35/37 Strikes = 126/133 = 94.7%) +1 LAD.
Series Complete: (NLDS CHC Over STL 3-1), 96.1%, 561/584. Net Skew: +1 STL.

- 10/14, TEX@TOR Gm 5: Dale Scott: pfx (94/97 Balls + 47/50 Strikes = 141/147 = 95.9%) +4 TOR.
- 10/14, HOU@KC Gm 5: Gerry Davis: pfx (79/79 Balls + 31/35 Strikes = 110/114 = 96.5%) +2 HOU.
Series Complete: (ALDS TOR Over TEX 3-2), 95.2%, 792/832. Net Skew: +16 TOR.
Series Complete: (ALDS KC Over HOU 3-2), 96.2%, 701/729. Net Skew: +2 HOU.

- 10/15, NYM@LAD Gm 5: Gary Cederstrom: pfx (98/100 Balls + 39/42 Strikes = 137/142 = 96.5%) +1 LAD.
Series Complete: (NLDS NYM Over LAD 3-2), 96.3%, 706/733. Net Skew: +7 LAD.

Instant Replay Reviews (R-QOC Coloring: Green [Confirmed], Yellow [Stands], Red [Overturned]):
- Blue Jays challenge 3B Umpire Dale Scott's safe call (tag play); Call Confirmed
- Blue Jays challenge 2B Umpire Marvin Hudson's safe call (tag play); Call Stands
- Royals challenge 1B Umpire Mike Everitt's out call (play at first); Call Overturned
- Royals challenge 1B Umpire Mike Everitt's safe call on pickoff attempt (tag play); Call Overturned
- Cardinals challenge 1B Umpire Bill Welke's out call (play at first); Call Stands
- Cardinals challenge 3B Umpire Dana DeMuth's safe call (tag play); Call Confirmed
- Dodgers challenge 2B Umpire Chris Guccione's out call (force play); Call Overturned
- Astros challenge 3B Umpire Lance Barksdale's out call (tag play); Call Overturned
- Rangers challenge 2B Umpire Dan Bellino's safe call (tag play); Call Confirmed
- Dodgers challenge 2B Umpire Gary Cederstrom's safe call (tag play); Call Stands
- Crew Chief reviews LF Umpire Alan Porter's home run call (HR/boundary); Call Confirmed
- Rangers challenge 3B Umpire Vic Carapazza's out call (tag play); Call Confirmed
- Rangers challenge HP Umpire Dale Scott's HP collision no-call (Rule 7.13), Call Confirmed
- Mets challenge 1B Umpire Chad Fairchild's out call (play at first); Call Overturned

Other Plays (Green [Correct], Yellow [Irrecusable or Inconclusive], or Red [Incorrect]):
- 1B Umpire Vic Carapazza calls Carrera out at first base on head-first slide
- HP Umpire James Hoye moves into position to call DeShields safe ahead of tag attempt
- 2B Umpire Mike Everitt punches out Altuve trying to steal second base
- 1B Umpire Angel Hernandez rules Gomes safe on pickoff attempt at first base 
- HP Umpire Vic Carapazza stays with Odor's crafty slide on 2nd inning sacrifice fly
- HP Umpire Vic Carapazza signals Odor safe with winning run on tumbling slide in the 14th inning
- 3B Umpire Dale Scott's crew manages a bench-clearing incident between the Rangers and Blue Jays
- HP Umpire Phil Cuzzi rules Stephen Piscotty safe on play at the plate
- HP Umpire Dale Scott awards Odor home after wild throw hits Choo's bat

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

2015 Season's End Umpire Sabermetrics

MLB Ejection & Instant Replay Review Statistics and Umpire Sabermetrics for the 2015 season are now available. Visit 2014's Instant Replay Review Statistics 101: Week 1 Sabermetrics for an introduction to Ejection & Replay Review definitions and terms, including Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP), also known as QOC (Quality of Correctness), Replay Percentage of Success (RPS), alternatively, 1.000 - RAP = RPS, and Manager's Challenge Success Percentage (CSP). Also included is Team Success Percentage (TSP), which includes all Replay Reviews; both Manager's Challenges and Crew Chief Reviews.

The following presentation includes summaries and detailed analysis for ejections and replay data gathered during baseball season's ceremonial first half.

Summary, Ejections.
>> 212 Total Regular Season Ejections through the conclusion of the 2015 regular season.
>> Umpires were 64.8% accurate on calls associated with ejection.
>> The Padres were ejected more often than any other team; the NL West led all MLB divisions.
>> The D-Backs, Braves & Marlins were ejected least often; the AL West trailed all divisions.
>> Managers Murphy, Gibbons, Maddon, Banister & Bochy tied to lead all managers in ejections.
>> Players Bryce Harper, Matt Kemp, Mike Napoli and Joey Votto led in player ejections.
>> Umpires Holbrook & West led all umpires; Tripp Gibson was the most accurate ejector.
>> John Hirschbeck's crew led all of baseball in ejection activity.
>> Most ejections occurred in the 7th inning; Ejections from 7th and on comprised 53% of all tosses.
>> Most ejections occurred on Sundays. Weekend series (Fri-Sun) featured 50% of all heave-ho's.
>> The most common reason for ejection was Balls/Strikes, followed by arguing a Check Swing.

Summary, Replay Reviews.
>> 1335 Total Replay Reviews, of which calls were affirmed 51.2% of the time (48.8% overturned).
>> The Tampa Bay Rays used replay more than any other team, but had below average accuracy.
>> John Hirschbeck's crew led all of baseball in replay activity by a significant margin.
>> Umpire Adam Hamari led the league in accuracy with all of his calls affirmed by replay.
>> Umpire Ben May experienced the highest rate of his calls being overturned by replay.
>> Most reviews occurred in the 7th inning.
>> Most reviews occurred on Friday; Calls were most often overturned in daytime conditions.
>> The most common reason for review was Safe/Out, followed by HR/Not HR and HBP/Foul.

For detailed sabermetric analysis of MLB umpire ejections and instant replay review outcomes, follow the "read more" link below. The advanced data below includes team and individual (by manager/player/umpire) ejection and replay review leaders and statistics, including manager's challenges and crew chief reviews. Complete listed ranking of least and most successful managers in challenging, most successful teams (manager's challenges + crew chief reviews) and review percentages by umpire are included.

MLB Ejection P-1: Jeff Nelson (3; Sean Rodriguez)

HP Umpire Jeff Nelson ejected Pirates 1B Sean Rodriguez for fighting in the top of the 7th inning of the Cubs-Pirates game. With two out and none on, Cubs batter Jake Arrieta took a 0-0 sinker from Pirates pitcher Tony Watson for a hit-by-pitch. Replays indicate the pitch was located inside and struck Arrieta's hip, producing a bench-clearing brawl during which Rodriguez appeared to throw a punch, the call was irrecusable. At the time of the ejection, the Cubs were leading, 4-0. The Cubs ultimately won the contest, 4-0.

This is Jeff Nelson (45)'s third ejection of 2015.
Jeff Nelson now has 15 points in the UEFL Standings (12 Previous + 3 MLB-PS + 0 Irrecusable = 15).
John Hirschbeck now has 19 points in Crew Division (18 Previous + 1 Irrecusable Call = 19).

This is the first ejection of the 2015 MLB Postseason and 213th overall ejection.
This is the 97th player ejection of 2015. Prior to ejection, Rodriguez was 0-0 in the contest.
This is the Pirates' 9th ejection of 2015, T-1st in the NL Central (CIN, PIT 9; CHC, STL 8; MIL 6).
This is Sean Rodriguez's 2nd ejection of 2015, 1st since August 2 (Joe West; QOC = U [Fighting]).
This is Jeff Nelson's first ejection since August 30, 2015 (Jorge De La Rosa; QOC = Y [Balls/Strikes]).

Wrap: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (2015 MLB Postseason: NL Wild Card Game), 10/7/15
Video: Arrieta's HBP prompts warnings, a bench clearing incident, and S-Rod's ejection (TBS)

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Discussion of 2015 AL and NL Wild Card Games

Postseason discussion is now open with the Wild Card Games on Tuesday, October 6 and Wednesday the 7th. Notes include home plate umpire performance according to pitch f/x and UEFL Rules 6-2-b-a (horizontal bound, "Kulpa Rule") and 6-2-b-b (vertical strike zone, "Miller Rule"). Plays include significant plays and instant replay reviews, if such plays occur. Call +/- also included/highlighted.

- 10/06, HOU@NYY ALWC: Eric Cooper: pfx (104/107 Balls, 47/51 Strikes = 151/158 = 95.6%) +3 HOU.

- 10/07, CHC@PIT, NLWC: Jeff Nelson: pfx (74/77 Balls, 42/46 Strikes = 116/123 = 94.3%) +1 PIT.

NOTE: With 96.2% in Game 2 and 96.4% in Game 7, respectively, Eric Cooper and Jeff Nelson had the best plate performances during the 2014 World Series. Only Greg Gibson (98.3%) during the 2014 NLCS had a higher plate score last postseason (Ron Kulpa scored a 96.3% in the ALCS). Gibson is working the 2015 NLDS (NYM@LAD) while Kulpa is working the ALDS (ALWC@KC).

Instant Replay Reviews (R-QOC Coloring: Green [Confirmed], Yellow [Stands], Red [Overturned]):

Other Plays (Green [Correct], Yellow [Irrecusable or Inconclusive], or Red [Incorrect]):
- 1B Umpire Paul Emmel calls Evan Gattis out on barehanded play by third baseman Chase Headley
- 1B Umpire Hunter Wendelstedt rules Marte out on backend of clutch Chicago double play

Monday, October 5, 2015

Roster Set for 2015 Wild Card, Division Series Umpires

MLB has announced the 2015 Wild Card, ALDS and NLDS Umpires, the first two rounds of the 2015 Playoffs.

Wild Card 'A' (American League/HOU@NYY)
HP: Eric Cooper
1B: Paul Emmel
2B: Ted Barrett -cc
3B: Bill Miller
LF: Chris Conroy
RF: Manny Gonzalez

Wild Card 'B' (National League/CHC@PIT)
HP: Jeff Nelson
1B: Hunter Wendelstedt
2B: John Hirschbeck -cc
3B: Jim Reynolds
LF: Mike Estabrook
RF: Cory Blaser

Wild Card Replay Officials: Dan Iassogna, Mark Wegner

HP: Lance Barksdale
1B: Angel Hernandez
2B: Mike Everitt
3B: Ron Kulpa
LF: Gerry Davis -cc
RF: Todd Tichenor

HP: James Hoye
1B: Vic Carapazza
2B: Alfonso Marquez
3B: Marvin Hudson
LF: Dale Scott -cc
RF: Dan Bellino

HP: Phil Cuzzi
1B: Bill Welke
2B: Mike Winters
3B: Mark Carlson
LF: Dana DeMuth -cc
RF: Brian Knight

HP: Alan Porter
1B: Jim Wolf
2B: Greg Gibson
3B: Chris Guccione
LF: Gary Cederstrom -cc
RF: Chad Fairchild

Division Series Replay Officials: Kerwin Danley, Paul Nauert, Brian O'Nora, Tim Welke

-cc denotes Crew Chief, BOLD TEXT denotes first Post-season assignment. Per UEFL Rule 4-3-c, all umpires selected to appear in the Wild Card games shall receive one bonus point for this appearance. Umpires assigned to the Division Series shall receive two bonus points for this appearance; crew chiefs shall receive one additional bonus point for this role (two or three points total). Officials assigned to replay review only do not receive points for this role.