Monday, May 2, 2016

MLB Ejection & Replay Review Sabermetrics - April 2016

Ejections are down 50% from 2015 and 37% from 2014, thanks mainly to a lack of fights and angry pitchers. In 2014, when expanded Replay was introduced, we predicted ejections would modestly fall, since arguments over out/safe calls comprised the bulk of ejections prior to 2014. Instead, the 199 ejections experienced in 2014 marked an increase of 11% over 2013's 180 ejections, while the 212 ejections in 2015 was the first time seasonal ejections surpassed the 200-mark since 2010 (201 ejections), and was the most overall since 2007 (215 ejections).

Regarding replay, one of the 17 ejections in April was for arguing a Replay Review, whereas arguing the outcome of a Replay Review comprised 14-of-212 (7%) ejections in 2015 (2-of-34 in April), and 24-of-199 (12%) ejections in 2014 (3-of-27 in April); the month vs. year differences are not statistically significant. Arguing Replay Review decisions, therefore, trended downward from 2014-15, suggesting that the finality of Replay Review is gaining acceptance across baseball. Further supporting this theory, the one Replay Review ejection in 2016 concerned potential bona fide slide interference—a new rule for this season.

Allow us to briefly explore a possible explanation for the declining ejection numbers. 12 of the 17 ejections in April 2016 concerned Balls/Strikes, compared to 11 of 34 in 2015 and 15 of 27 2014.

Check Swings: 2-of-17 in 2016, 4-of-34 in 2015, 0-of-27 in 2014.

So where's the difference? Fighting and Throwing At ejections were down sharply in April 2016 compared to years past: Other than MLB Ejection 001 - Marvin Hudson (1; Tom Wilhelmsen), an intentional throwing-at-batter ejection, there have been no brawls or other inter-squad conflicts that have led to ejection. In 2015, there were five fighting and four throwing at ejections in April (9-of-34; 26%), while in 2014, those numbers were three fights and two bean balls (5-of-27; 19%). 2016's mark of 1-of-17 (6%) is a far cry from the previous Aprils' numbers.

With that out of the way, here's the Ejection & Instant Replay Review Statistics and Umpire Sabermetrics for April 2016. The following presentation includes summaries and analyses for ejections and replay data gathered during the first month of the 2016 regular season.

Summary, Ejections.
>> 17 Total Regular Season Ejections through April 30, 2016 (on pace for 117 ejections this season).
>> Umpires were 68.8% accurate on calls associated with ejection.
>> The Marlins were ejected more often than any other team.
>> 18 teams have yet to be ejected.
>> Manager Don Mattingly of the Miami Marlins led all managers in ejections.
>> Several players tied to lead all players in ejections.
>> Umpires Tichenor, Hudson, Gorman & L Barrett led all umpires in ejections.
>> Chief Everitt, Miller, Davis, Gorman & Scott's crews tied to lead all of baseball in ejections.
>> Most ejections occurred in the 7th inning; Ejections from 7th and on comprised 76% of all tosses.
>> Most ejections occurred on Sundays. Weekend series (Fri-Sun) featured 48% of all heave-ho's.
>> The most common reason for ejection was Balls/Strikes, followed by arguing a Check Swing.

Summary, Replay Reviews.
>> 222 Total Replay Reviews, of which calls were affirmed 54% of the time (46% overturned).
>> The Blue Jays & Red Sox used replay more than any other team, but were fairly inaccurate.
>> The Tigers were the League's most successful team in review, with less than half as many reviews.
>> The Mets had less reviews than any other team and did not receive any overturned calls.
>> Umpire Diaz saw seven of his calls reviewed, more than any other umpire.
>> John Hirschbeck's crew led all of baseball in replay activity by a significant margin.
>> Umpire Quinn Wolcott led the league in accuracy with all of his calls affirmed by replay.
>> Umpire Marvin Hudson experienced the highest rate of his calls being overturned by replay.
>> Most reviews occurred in the 8th inning. Reviews from 7th and on comprised 41% of all reviews.
>> Most reviews occurred on Sundays; Calls were most often overturned in daytime conditions.
>> The most common reason for review was Out/Safe, followed by questions of interference.

For detailed sabermetric analysis of MLB umpire ejections and instant replay review outcomes, follow the "read more" link below.

Total Games Played Through April 30, 2016: 354 of 2430 (14.6% of the season schedule).

Umpire Ejection Sabermetrics
Ejections: 126. At this pace (126 E / 1330 G), there will be 230 Ejections at regular season's end.
"Team most active" (Team with most Ejections): MIA 3; COL, DET, SD 2; 8 Others 1.
"Team least active" (Team with least Ejections): 18 Teams Tied 0.
"Manager ejections leader" (Most Ejections): Don Mattingly (2).
"Player ejections leader" (Player ejection leader): 8 Players Tied 1.
"Umpire leader" (Umpire with most Ejections): Tichenor, Hudson, Gorman, L Barrett 2.
"Crew most active" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Ejections): Everitt, Miller, Davis, Gorman, Scott 2.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest Simple QOC): Tichenor & Gorman - QOCY 1.000 (2/2).
"Overall QOC percentage" (Overall QOC Y value): .688 (11 Y / 5 N) + 1 Irrecusable = 17 Total.
"Team Status Pre-Ejection" (Winning-Losing-Tied [W-L-T] Record prior to Ejection): 4-10-3.
"Team Status Post-Ejection" (Game Record [W-L]): 5-12. (Delta: 1-2; WPCT: .333).

By Inning: 7 (4), 8 (4), 5 (3), 3 (2), 4 (2), 6 (1), 12 (1).
By Reason: Ball/Strike (12; QOC = .667); Check Swing (2; QOC = 1.000); Balk, Throwing At, Replay (1).
By Day of Week: Sun (4), Fri (3), Wed (3), Mon (2), Tues (2), Sat (2), Thurs (1).

Umpire Instant Replay Review Sabermetrics
Replay Reviews & Decisions Rendered: 222, .541 RAP (120/222).
"Team Most Used" (Made use of Replay Review most often): TOR, BOS 13; TEX, STL, SD, MIA, ARI 11.
"Team Least Used" (Least use of Replay): NYM 2; CIN, KC, NYY 3; LAA, MIL, OAK 4.
"Most successful team in review" (Team with highest TSP): Detroit Tigers - .800 (4/5).
"Least successful team in review" (Team with lowest TSP): Atlanta Braves - .167 (1/6).
"Umpire most questioned" (Most Replay Reviews): Laz Diaz 7; Hoye, Fagan, Davis, T Barrett 6.
"Crew most questioned" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Reviews): Hirschbeck 47; Meals 40.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): Quinn Wolcott - 1.000 in 5/5.
"Ump of greatest overturn" (Umpire with lowest RAP): Marvin Hudson - .000 in 0/3.

Actual data (Raw Data for Replay Reviews):
- By Inning: 8 (35), 5 (28), 7 (26), 9 (25), 4 (25), 6 (21), 3 (21), 1 (21), 2 (14), Extras (6).
- By Reason: Out/Safe (161), Out/Pulled Foot (16), INT/No INT (11), Tag/No Tag (6), HR/Fan Int (6).
- By Day of Week: Sun (40), Sat (36), Wed (36), Tues (33), Fri (32), Mon (25), Thurs (20).


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