Tuesday, January 17, 2023

2023 MLB Call-Up Umpire Hiring Outlook

Here at Closecallsports, our replay guru TMAC has watched every single replay and charted it since the inception of expanded replay.  Besides needing a hobby, over the next few weeks TMAC will share that data with you in three parts.  The first will be an analysis of all the MILB Call-up umpires.  MLB will be announcing 10 new hires soon!  

In 2022 there were 670 calls overturned (OT) by the replay system, or one in every 3.63 games.  Remember there are four umpires assigned to regular season affairs so that comes to one OT every 14.5 games as the average for each umpire.  If 14.5 is the barometer, you will notice some better and some not quite up to the MLB average.  That average takes into account ALL umpires, both Full-Time, and MILB Call-Ups! 

We will sort each umpire in two ways!  The top chart is by games worked and the lower is by fewest overturns per game.  There is no analysis on total replay reviews.  We only concentrate on overturned calls.  Over the long haul, OTs are the best way to determine who has the best judgement on calls not only that are eligible for replay review, but decisions that encompass all aspects of the game with the exception of handling situations and balls and strikes!    

Nick Mahrley: 476 Games/45 OTs Overturn Rate 1 in 10.6 games
Shane Livensparger: 382/41 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/9.3
Edwin Moscoso: 332/22 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/15.1
Jeremy Riggs: 263/10 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/26.3
Adam Beck: 253/14 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/18.1 
Nestor Ceja: 253/22 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/11.5
Ryan Wills: 250/19 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/13.2
Dan Merzel: 241/6 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/40.2
Junior Valentine: 235/18 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/13.1
Eric Bacchus 234/19 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/12.3
Brennan Miller: 195/12 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/16.3
Alex Tosi: 191/21 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/9.1
Malachi Moore: 156/14 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/11.1
John Bacon: 149/14 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/10.6
Charlie Ramos: 138/10 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/13.8
Clint Vondrak: 133/11 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/12.1
Jose Navas: 130/8 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/16.3
Nate Tomlinson: 92/6 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/15.3
Paul Clemons: 73/4 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/18.3
Alex MacKay: 47/5 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/9.4
Randy Rosenberg 39/5 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/7.8
David Arrieta: 39/1 OT: Overturn Rate 1/39
Brock Ballou: 30/5 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/6
Lew Williams 28/2 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/14

1) Dan Merzel: Overturn Rate 1 Overturn per 40.2 Games (1/40.2)
2) David Arrieta: 1/39
3) Jeremy Riggs: 1/26.3
4) Paul Clemons: 1/18.3
5) Adam Beck: 1/18.1
T6) Brennan Miller: 1/16.3
Jose Navas: 1/16.3
8) Nate Tomlinson: 1/15.3
9) Edwin Moscoso: 1/15.1
10) Lew Williams: 1/14
11) Charlie Ramos: 1/13.8
12) Ryan Wills: 1/13.2
13) Junior Valentine: 1/13.1
14) Eric Bacchus: 1/12.3
15) Clint Vondrak: 1/12.1
16) Nestor Ceja: 1/11.5
17) Malachi Moore: 1/11.1
18) John Bacon: 1/10.6 (10.64)
19) Nick Mahrley: 1/10.6 (10.58)
20) Alex MacKay: 1/9.4 
21) Shane Livensparger: 1/9.3
22) Alex Tosi: 1/9.1
23) Randy Rosenberg: 1/7.8
24) Brock Ballou: 1/6

- David Arrieta wasn’t flipped until his 29th MLB game and he’s on a stretch now of 10 straight.  
- Nate Tomlinson was OT’d three times in his first MLB game, but in his 91 since, he’s been wrong via review only three times also! 
- Brock Ballou’s body of work is small so after one year it’s best to wait for more complete data.
- Dan Merzel’s one overturn in every 40 + games is the best for a call-up at the end of a season since replay began (minimum 50 total MLB games).
- Edwin Moscoso had a breakthrough 2022 season with four flips in 145 games or 1/36.3

This data is by no means the be all and end all but combined with ball-strike success rate it would be a great way to point yourself in the right direction when selecting the newest full-time MLB umpires.  

In our next data drop, we’ll do the same with the replay stats, but we’ll apply our breakdown to the Crew Chiefs!  The data may just surprise you!