Monday, June 1, 2015

MLB Ejections & Replay Stats Through May 31, 2015

MLB Ejection & Instant Replay Review Statistics and Umpire Sabermetrics through May 2015 are now available. Visit 2014's Instant Replay Review Statistics 101: Week 1 Sabermetrics for an introduction to Ejection & Replay Review definitions and terms, including Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP), also known as QOC (Quality of Correctness), Replay Percentage of Success (RPS), alternatively, 1.000 - RAP = RPS, and Manager's Challenge Success Percentage (CSP). Also included is Team Success Percentage (TSP), which includes all Replay Reviews; both Manager's Challenges and Crew Chief Reviews.

The following presentation includes summaries and detailed analysis for ejections and replay data gathered during baseball season's first two months.

Summary, Ejections.
>> 66 Total Regular Season Ejections through May 31, 2015.
>> Umpires were 79.5% accurate on calls associated with ejection.
>> The Royals were ejected more often than any other team; the AL Central led all MLB divisions.
>> Seven teams were ejected less often than any other team; the AL West trailed all MLB divisions.
>> Manager Don Mattingly of the Los Angeles Dodgers led all managers in ejections.
>> Players Bryce Harper (WAS) and Yordano Ventura (KC) led all players in ejections.
>> Umpire Holbrook led all umpires; Estabrook was the most accurate ejector (highest E-QOC).
>> Jim Joyce's crew led all of baseball in ejection activity.
>> Most ejections occurred in the 7th inning; Ejections from 7th and on comprised 56% of all tosses.
>> Most ejections occurred on Sundays. Weekend series (Fri-Sun) featured 55% of all heave-ho's.
>> The most common reason for ejection was Balls/Strikes, followed by arguing a Check Swing.

Summary, Replay Reviews.
>> 364 Total Replay Reviews, of which calls were affirmed 55% of the time (45% overturned).
>> The Tampa Bay Rays used replay more than any other team, but were the least accurate (.200 N).
>> Manager Kevin Cash (TB) led all managers in filing challenges, but was fairly inaccurate.
>> Don Mattingly (LAD) and Cash (TB) were the league's worst challenging managers (lowest CSP).
>> Craig Counsell (MIL) led the league in accuracy.
>> The league average manager was successful in challenging a play 53% of the time.
>> Umpires Baker and Bucknor saw 10 of their calls reviewed, each, more than any other umpire.
>> Mike Winters and Jerry Meals' crews tied to lead all of baseball in replay activity.
>> Umpire Toby Basner led the league in accuracy with all of his calls affirmed by replay.
>> Umpire Lance Barrett experienced the highest rate of his calls being overturned by replay.
>> Most reviews occurred in the 8th inning. Reviews from 7th and on comprised 41% of all reviews.
>> Most reviews occurred on Sundays; Calls were most often overturned in daytime conditions.
>> The most common reason for review was Safe/Out, followed by HR/Not HR and HBP/Foul.

For detailed sabermetric analysis of MLB umpire ejections and instant replay review outcomes, follow the "read more" link below. The advanced data below includes team and individual (by manager/player/umpire) ejection and replay review leaders and statistics, including manager's challenges and crew chief reviews. Complete listed ranking of least and most successful managers in challenging, most successful teams (manager's challenges + crew chief reviews) and review percentages by umpire are included.



We begin this week's sabermetric analysis with umpire ejections. Games Played: 752 of 2430.
Ejections: 66 (Compare to: 69 Ejections through May 31, 2014 [or, 60 through May 25, 2014]).
"Team most active" (Team with most Ejections): KC Royals - 9 (LAD, SD, WAS 5; 8 Tied 3).
"Team least active" (Team with least Ejections): CLE, HOU, LAA, NYY, PHI, PIT, SF 1.
"Manager ejections leader" (Ejected most often): Don Mattingly (LAD) - 3.
"Player ejections leader" (Player ejection leader): Bryce Harper, Yordano Ventura - 2.
"Umpire leader" (Umpire with most Ejections): Sam Holbrook - 6 (G Gibson, J Joyce - 4).
"Crew most active" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Ejections): Jim Joyce - 10 (Tim Welke - 9).
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest Simple QOC): Mike Estabrook - QOCY 1.000 (3/3).
"Overall QOC percentage" (Overall QOC Y value): .795 (35 Y / 9 N) + 22 Irrecusable = 66 Total.
"Team Status Pre-Ejection" (Winning-Losing-Tied [W-L-T] Record prior to Ejection): 9-38-19.
"Team Status Post-Ejection" (Game Record [W-L]): 23-43. (Delta: 14-5; WPCT: .737).

By Inning: 7 (16), 8 (13), 5 (9), 4 (7), 3 (5), 9 (5), 1 (3), 6 (3), 12 (3), 2 (2).
By Reason: Balls/Strikes (28, QOC .786), Check Swing (11, QOC .909), Fighting (5), Unsportsmanlike-NEC (5), Throwing At (4), Warnings (3), Replay Review (3), Balk (2, QOC 1.000).
By Day of Week: Sun (17), Thurs (12), Wed (10), Fri (10), Sat (9), Mon (4), Tues (4).

Next up is the category of Instant Replay Reviews.
Replay Reviews & Decisions Rendered: 364, .547 RAP (199/364, increased accuracy over 2014).
- Crew Chief Reviews (Replay Reviews initiated by the Umpire Chief): 34 (9%), .676 RAP.
- Manager's Challenges (Replay Reviews initiated by the Club Manager): 330 (91%), .533 RAP.
"Team Most Used" (Made use of Replay Review most often): TB Rays - 25 (CHC 18, TEX 17).
"Team Least Used" (Least use of Replay): KC Royals & CIN Reds - 5 (STL 7, BAL & ARI 8).
"Manager's Challenge Leader" (Most challenges filed): Kevin Cash - 20 (Maddon, Banister - 16).
"Most successful Manager" (Manager with highest CSP): Craig Counsell (MIL) - .692 (9/13).
"League average Manager" (Average CSP for all Managers): .533.
"Least successful Manager" (Manager with lowest CSP): K Cash & D Mattingly - .200 each.
"Most successful team in review" (Team with highest TSP): Milwaukee Brewers - .692 (9/13).
"Least successful team in review" (Team with lowest TSP): TB Rays - .200 (5/20)
"Umpire most questioned" (Most Replay Reviews): Jordan Baker; CB Bucknor - 10.
"Crew most questioned" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Reviews): Winters & Meals - 26.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): Toby Basner - 1.000 in 4/4.
"Ump of greatest overturn" (Umpire with lowest RAP): Lance Barrett - .000 in 0/3.
Team Status Pre-Review (Winning or Losing prior to review [Win-Loss-Tied]): 107-159-98.
Team Status Post-Review (Game Record [W-L]): 168-196. (Delta: 61-37; WPCT: .622).

Actual data (Raw Data for Replay Reviews):
- By Inning: 8 (52), 5 (47), 7 (43), 1 (41), 6 (37), 9 (35), 3 (33), 4 (33), 2 (32), Extras (11).
- By Type: Safe/Out (295), HR/Not HR (20), HBP/Foul (19), Catch/Trap (10), Rule 7.13 (10).
- By Day of Week: Sun (69), Sat (67), Wed (55), Fri (53), Mon (48), Tues (44), Thurs (28).

Teams Most Used - Quantity of Replay Reviews (both Crew Chief & Manager's Challenge)
1. Tampa Bay Rays: 25.
2. Chicago Cubs: 18.
3. Texas Rangers: 17.
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Toronto Blue Jays: 16.
6. Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies: 15.
9. Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox: 14.

Most and Least Successful Managers - Managers with Highest and Lowest CSP
1. MIL - Craig Counsell (Milwaukee Brewers): .692.
2. NYM - Terry Collins (New York Mets): .643.
3. SD - Bud Black (San Diego Padres): .636.
3. MIN - Paul Molitor (Minnesota Twins): .636.
5. ARI - Chip Hale (Arizona Diamondbacks): .625.
6. MIA - Dan Jennings (Miami Marlins): .600.
7. STL - Mike Matheny (St. Louis Cardinals): .571.
7. PIT - Clint Hurdle (Pittsburgh Pirates): .571.
9. HOU - AJ Hinch (Houston Astros): .556.
9. CLE - Terry Francona (Cleveland Indians): .556.
11. NYY - Joe Girardi (New York Yaknees): .545.
12. PHI - Ryne Sandberg (Philadelphia Phillies): .538.
13. LAA - Mike Scioscia (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim): .533.
14. COL - Walt Weiss (Colorado Rockies): .500.
14. BAL - Buck Showalter (Baltimore Orioles): .500.
14. CWS - Robin Ventura (Chicago White Sox): .500.
14. SEA - Lloyd McClendon (Seattle Mariners): .500.
League Average - .467 (176/330 Challenges Overturned).
18. CHC - Joe Maddon (Chicago Cubs) - .438.
19. WAS - Matt Williams (Washington Nationals) - .429.
20. ATL - Fredi Gonzalez (Atlanta Braves) - .417.
20. BOS - John Farrell (Boston Red Sox) - .417.
22. DET - Brad Ausmus (Detroit Tigers) - .400.
22. KC - Ned Yost (Kansas City Royals) - .400.
22. CIN - Bryan Price (Cincinnati Reds) - .400.
25. TOR - John Gibbons (Toronto Blue Jays) - .385.
26. SF - Bruce Bochy (San Francisco Giants) - .375.
27. OAK - Bob Melvin (Oakland Athletics) - .364.
28. TEX - Jeff Banister (Texas Rangers) - .250.
29. TB - Kevin Cash (Tampa Bay Rays) - .200.
30. LAD - Don Mattingly (Los Angeles Dodgers) - .200.

*Team's manager designated on the club's active coaching roster is listed in this section. Keep in mind this may also be a function of bench coach and/or clubhouse video coordinator affinity.

Umpire Accuracy - Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP Ranking)
1. Toby Basner - 1.000 (4/4).
2. Brian Gorman, Jeff Nelson - 1.000 (3/3).
4. Alfonso Marquez, David Rackley, Cory Blaser, Mark Ripperger - 1.000 (2/2).
8. Sam Holbrook, Fieldin Culbreth, Pat Hoberg - 1.000 (1/1).
11. Marty Foster - .875 (7/8).
12. Mark Carlson - .857 (6/7).
13. James Hoye - .833 (5/6).
14. Ron Kulpa, Jerry Layne - .800 (4/5).
16. Adam Hamari - .750 (2/6).
17. Hunter Wendelstedt, Paul Emmel, Chris Guccione, Jeff Kellogg, Jerry Meals - .750 (3/4).
22. Mark Wegner, Dana DeMuth - .714 (5/7).
24. Tripp Gibson, John Hirscbheck, Dan Iassogna, Brian O'Nora - .667 (4/6).
28. Joe West, Gary Cederstrom, Kerwin Danley, Rob Drake - .667 (2/3).
... League Average - .547 (199/364)...
68. Doug Eddings, John Tumpane, Sean Barber, Angel Hernandez, Chad Fairchild, Ed Hickox, Will Little, Larry Vanover, Vic Carapazza - .250 (1/4).
77. Gerry Davis, Paul Nauert - .000 (0/1).
79. Mike Everitt, Brian Knight, Ted Barrett, Marcus Pattillo - .000 (0/2).
83. Lance Barrett - .000 (0/3).

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