Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Discussions: 2011 World Series

As the 2011 World Series gets underway, we again open the umpire forum to discussion, below. Notes include home plate umpire performance according to pitch f/x and UEFL Rules 6.b.ii.a. (horizontal bound, "Kulpa Rule") and 6.b.ii.b. (vertical strike zone, "Miller Rule"). Normalized strike zone plots are displayed via the "pfx" link. Plays include significant plays or activities. WS = Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals.

***End-of-Year Award distribution will begin Sunday***

- Final, TEX@STL, 7: Layne misses 17 pitches, 14 of which benefit St. Louis during the Series' only 90.0% game.
- Final, TEX@STL, 6: Cederstrom calls 94.3% during epic Rangers-Cardinals extra inning thriller.
- Final, STL@TEX, 5: Barrett calls Game 5 at 90.7% as the Texas portion of the series concludes.
- Final, STL@TEX, 4: After missing a call at first base the night before, Kulpa rebounds to call a 95.6%.
- Final, STL@TEX, 3: Marquez calls a massive 206 pitches, calling 92.2% during Cardinals rout of Rangers.
- Final, TEX@STL, 2: After calling 96.0% in the DS, Gibson has an impressive performance of 96.1% in the WS.
- Final, TEX@STL, 1: Layne starts off strong with a 94.9% performance; umpires miss 9th inning foul call.

Notes and Archives
TEX@STL, Gm1: HP Umpire Jerry Layne: pfx (34-37 Called Strikes, 97-101 Balls = 94.9%)
TEX@STL, Gm2: HP Umpire Greg Gibson: pfx (38-41 Called Strikes, 86-88 Balls = 96.1%)^
STL@TEX, Gm3: HP Umpire Alfonso Marquez: pfx (59-64 Called Strikes, 131-142 Balls = 92.2%)
STL@TEX, Gm4: HP Umpire Ron Kulpa: pfx (46-50 Called Strikes, 107-110 Balls = 95.6%)
STL@TEX, Gm5: HP Umpire Ted Barrett: pfx (42-52 Called Strikes, 95-99 Balls = 90.7%)
TEX@STL, Gm6: HP Umpire Gary Cederstrom: pfx (50-52 Called Strikes, 133-142 Balls = 94.3%)
TEX@STL, Gm7: HP Umpire Jerry Layne: pfx (53-61 Called Strikes, 100-109 Balls = 90.0%)

Plays
Game 1: Infrared: FOX Celebrates New Technology at Expense of Beltre, Rangers [b/r article]
- - Video: Beltre appears to foul ball off his foot in the ninth inning, umpires miss the call
Game 2: Kulpa correctly rules Kinsler safe on stolen base attempt, Molina expresses frustration
Game 3: Kulpa misses "obvious" out call during 1-0 game. Washington argues to no avail.
Game 3: Torre discusses missed call, blasts media for questioning St. Louis native-Kulpa's integrity
Game 6: Marquez delivers a correct out call at third base, after a Napoli-Beltre pickoff
Game 7: MLB Must Rewrite Home-Field Advantage Rule [b/r opinion]
Game 7: Umpire's Strike Zone is not to Blame for Rangers' World Series Loss [b/r article]

*Live accuracy is not available during reviews, challenges, or during suspiciously normalized contests.
'The UEFL reports all sub-90.0% accuracy games as "<90%"
^This plot includes one ball miscategorized as a called strike. The ball call was correct.

67 comments :

Anonymous said...

That's the worst. Missing a call in the ninth inning. It's tough all around. That's an extremely difficult play to call, clearly missed the call, but, that's tough.

Anonymous said...

@ 9:17.. even with the infrared vision, and all the HD camera's we still cant't be sure it hit his foot... you try call that in a real game dude...so to say he missed it is plan BS.

Anonymous said...

With all the views they showed, it became clear it hit his foot. Too much of a change of direction.

Anonymous said...

The ball barely knicked his foot and for him to jump around the way he did was BS. That ball wouldn't have even made contact with a toe.. just the end of his shoe..

Jack_1B Ump said...

Make excuses of "barely touched" or Beltre exaggerating, but at the end of the day, we are graded on QOC in addition to the other mechanics. This goes down as NCI - No Call Incorrect. It's a tough angle for the plate umpire to see, it's tough to expect him to hear it as well because you have the ball hitting dirt almost simultaneously. It's a foul-up for the entire infield crew.

Anonymous said...

It pains me to these kind of mistakes. You cannot miss calls like these on the biggest stage of the game. I agree that it is a tough call, it's tough in a high school game. Does not matter how tough it is, there are $750,000 worth of professional umpires out there that miss that. That is what is inexcusable. They are supposed to be the best at what they do, yet they make a high school umpire mistake. Makes you wonder about how these umpires are selected and make it as far as they do; more politics, less ability.

BrooklynUmp said...

Anonymous 9:30...They had to use some type of heat sensing camera to see that there was the slightest bit of friction between the ball and his foot--hardly an obvious call and certainly not a foul-up.

Anonymous said...

@BrooklynUmp, I watched that part of the video as well but I initially had foul. If you watch the flight of the ball it looked pretty clear to me the way the ball spun. Like I said, it's tough no matter the level, but these are supposed to the best of the best. I expect more on a call like that.

Jeffrey said...

I agree. I'll put it this way, if I'm making six figures to ump + a postseason bonus, I deserve criticism when I screw up, and I need to somehow find a way to get that close play right.

Anonymous said...

The WS Rookies have looked GREAT...stellar plate job by Gibson yet again, and 2 important, correct calls by Kulpa at second in the 9th!

Anonymous said...

You guys flipin kill me with this " he missed the call" the only way you Couch potatoes Umpires can see this is by the Slow mo Infrared replay... how do you expect a Umpire to see this, or one of the bae umpires who are about 110' away? heck you still are unsure if it hit his foot. Ball players are cheaters, have been always will be.. Look what Jeter did last year... and yet you always want to blame the umpires..

I tell you what.. spend about 4k to go to umpire school, and try to get in the Minor leagues and see how tough it really is..

Anonymous said...

I'm sorry guys, but when you need INFRARED technology to determine what happened, you can't blame this on Jerry or any of the base guys. And even with that technology, there is only a hint of a color change around the tip of his foot. So please, don't base your argument on "well they get paid 6 figures they should have to deal with the criticism." That's simply a play that the human eye cannot detect.

Anonymous said...

These umpires are doing one heck of a job. Am I the only one who feels Tim McCarver needs to go? Ever since the 2007 World Series. Ted Barrett banged Manny Ramirez out at the plate and McCarver went on on how it was a bad call -- only to back track when it was the right call.

Cricket said...

McCarver has long been an idiot. For someone who's been around the game for 60 years, you'd think he would understand the rules of the game.

Anonymous said...

Where's the accuracy report for game 3?

Gil "R.O." said...

Fluctuating from 91-93% all night, Marquez finished Game 3 with 92.2% accuracy.

Dan said...

Needless to say, a terrible missed call by Ron Kulpa on the tag play at first base. Not sure what he could have been looking at on that play. It's not the reason the Rangers lost, but it was certainly a turning point in the game.

Dave D said...

@Dan:

I think he was looking through Napoli at the time of the tag.

If you freeze it at 1:06, Kulpa even moves his head to get a shot of the ball but I don't think he ever sees it. Timing-wise, I think he had time to take a step to his left, especially since the throw pulled Napoli off the bag, and that extra step would have put him closer to the line and given him a better angle of the swipe.

I'm a little surprised that he didn't go for help, but then again, he must have thought he saw it cleanly which I don't think he did. Unfortunate as this was not that hard of a call IMHO.

Anonymous said...

Dan said...

Needless to say, a terrible missed call by Ron Kulpa on the tag play at first base. Not sure what he could have been looking at on that play. It's not the reason the Rangers lost, but it was certainly a turning point in the game.
October 23, 2011 3:40 AM
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Definitely a missed call for what would have been the second out, but the 2nd out only.

What came after that was the turning point, when the pitcher allowed Berkman to single, Freese to double, an intentional walk, then Jay hits a tapper to first and Napoli makes a horse-manure wild throw to let 2 runners score and then Theriot singles to get the final run in. Only 1 of the 4 runs came because of the missed call. The pitcher couldn't get outs and was continually behind the hitters anyway. And you don't give up 3 dingers to a guy who you had not even allowed a hit until this game. Big deal with the call compared to the 3 other errors by the Rangers and horse-manure pitching.

jhagen88 said...

If you watch Kulpa's mouth right after the play Napoli turns around and says "I tagged him" Kulpa says back, "I know, He got to the bag."

Not sure how he thought that but it looked like he was watching the bag.

Bill said...

In watching it again, I think he got in too close...he could not see the tag AND the bag, and chose the bag, which is the typical fist base play 95% of the time. Why did he chose the bag? Bad throw pulling F3 off the bag...he's watching to see if he holds the bag.
If Kulpa stays back a bit, he gets the tag and the bag.

Better throw by Kinsler keeps this from happening.

Anonymous said...

The accuracy count did not change from bot of 5th to bot 6th

Scott said...

Joe Torre was nice about Kulpa

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19941101

Anonymous said...

Update the accuracy report

Anonymous said...

Gil probably has one of those things called a life. You should look into one.

Anonymous said...

Then he shouldn't advertise live accuracy.

Scott said...

I'll never understand people who b*tch and complain about something that is run for free, as though they are entitled to it. Gil does this as a hobby, and most of us are very grateful to him!

If you want realtime live updates, you can do the math yourself - everything Gil uses is available to the public...

Anonymous said...

Scott - Thank you for you comment. You are right and I apologize.

Gil "R.O." said...

As some others have alluded to, I was unable to update past the fourth inning. Be advised that only games which I am fully available for are advertised as "live accuracy." Games 1, 2, 3 and 4 were live accuracy games, Game 5 was not. I am hoping to make Game 6 live accuracy as well.

Jeremy "jeruhmed" said...

Barring unforeseen circumstances, I will be updating live for tomorrow's Game 6. We appreciate all of you who have been joining and following us throughout the postseason.

Jeremy "jeruhmed" said...

Game 6 has been postponed until tomorrow night. We will see if we can do live accuracy for Game 6.

Cricket said...

Fonzie just made the call of the series...

Comeback Ump of the year?

Pete said...

Great officiating in game 6 all the way around.

Anonymous said...

Thought the pick-off at third was missed by Marquez. Looks like the runner's hand caught the corner of the bag before the tag. Not sure if he maintained contact throughout.

Anonymous said...

I completely agree with your article Gil. I do not understand why Bud Selig thought it was a good idea for an exhibition game to mean so much. During this series, we are seeing why homefield advantage is so important in a world series. A game seven favors St.Louis so much. Why does a team that has six more wins in the regular season have a disadvantage. Just does not seem far to me at all?

Anonymous said...

Totally agree with Pete - I thought the crew had a tremendous game (Layne had a couple good calls @ 1B) and "Cedee" was solid behind the plate for 4:30 hrs!!

Anonymous said...

So is kickersrule the champ or is there more points to hand out?

Gil "R.O." said...

There are more points to hand out with the Postseason Awards (see Nominations to cast your vote). We will begin handing out the awards and assigning points on Sunday, so make sure your votes are in by midnight! Voting for your own umpire(s), of course, is allowed, though don't expect the same umpire to win every single category...

Anonymous said...

Thanks for live tracking the strike zones this postseason, guys. Really enjoyed it. Pity about Jerry Layne's Game 7, though, he's not a terrible umpire at all, he just had a bad day IMO. Who knows, he might have been influenced by the St. Louis fans and Molina's complaining early on and that's just how it went from there.

You know, it'll just be swept under the rug eventually. The umpires and MLB will know, but that's about it. Rangers don't care, I mean they flat out lost this series by losing Game 6 first. No matter how many pitches the home plate umpire was going to blow in Game 7, they would have lost. They just weren't able to override home field advantage in St. Louis.

Anonymous said...

Before the game, a Texas news source wrote about Jerry Layne:

In the last five years, St. Louis Cardinals are 8-1 with a 2.00 ERA when Layne works home plate. In the same span, the Texas Rangers are 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA.

I guess after today it's STL: 9-1 and TEX: 1-7.... that's not very fair...

Anonymous said...

Always, there are more than one reason a game is won or lost...however 14 of 17 missed calls went against the Rangers? The Cards are 9-1 with Layne behind the plate, the rangers are 1-7 with Layne behind the plate?? No matter how you personally may want to spin that, catagorically, these are NOT statistically insignificant numbers. That is beyond chance, and tragically unfortunate for game 7 of the world series.

Anonymous said...

Gil, outstanding article in BR! As for Jerry Layne's zone, some of it can also be attributed to the talents of each team's catcher, Molina is one of the best framing catchers in the game, he most often keeps the pocket of the glove right on the edge & catches the pitch in his web, rarely moving his glove, Napoli has the habit of moving the glove & many HP umpires are influenced by that factor.
Also, I wouuld be very surprised if several umpires did not have records like the ones listed previously with certain teams, am almost certain Joe West's record would be similar against the White Sox during Ozzie's managerial reign.
Liked that you mentioned the home team situation for the WS, but you left out 1 major point, if CJ hadn't pitched so poorly & lost the All Star game the AL may have had home field advantage, just an added thought or salt on the Ranger fans wounds.

Gil "R.O." said...

One thing I've realized is that the idea of not blaming the umpire is a tough sell, even tougher with the 14-of-17 misses for STL and 8-1/1-6 records. I think for some emotional fans, it's tough to differentiate between the concepts of "influenced part of the game" and the more extreme "completely and solely to blame."

And as you can see by the comments, there are indeed Cardinals fans who think Layne called a pro-Rangers plate...

tmac said...

There are certain pitches you just can't miss. A 3-2 inning ender that results in runs being scored because you miss the pitch is one of them. I can forgive a lot of missed pitches but Layne's miss may have been a game changer. a 3-2 game is pitched and so much differently then a 5-2 game Gil i hope you know that.
I mean if a leadoff double is hit in the 7th by texas they would obviously bunt him over. The idea that well Texas didn't score another run so clearly the call didn't matter in the scheme of the game is beyond insane.
These are the games I love because as an umpire you have a chance to define your career just like a player would (SEE JACK MORRIS circa 1991). Layne defined it all right. An average major league umpire who got a push because he was friends with the bosses.
The ump was a factor in game 7 of the world series. Nobody will EVER know if he was the deciding factor.. but that one HUGE missed call will taint the great 2011 series forever.

JT Morris said...

I think there are a lot of fans who don't truly grasp situational baseball. The difference between the eventual outcomes of a 2-1 count versus a 1-2 count are monumental in both pitchers and hitters ensuing approaches. Or think about a 3-1 count versus a 2-2 count in a pressure situation.

If the difference in those counts is an umpire's blown call, then the outcome of that at-bat has been influenced greatly. String enough of these calls together and you have an overall outcome that is greatly influenced. Unfortunately these missed calls are unquantifiable, but I believe some people here are way underestimating the importance of ”pitchers counts” versus ”hitters counts”. Since the 2000 season, hitters have hit north of .340 in 3-1 counts and almost .370 in 2007, versus south of .195 in 2-2 counts; north of .339 in 2-1 counts versus south of .180 in 1-2 counts.

14 of 17 missed ball/strike calls in favor of one team is the difference between scoring runs and stymied offense...possibly on the order of a 6-2 ballgame. We'll never know undeniably to what extent, but to say his performance had marginal effect on the outcome is just uneducated.

Anonymous said...

It looks like Layne called that one lower corner pitch that walked Molina a ball fairly consistently: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneplot.php?pitchSel=all&game=gid_2011_10_28_texmlb_slnmlb_1/&sp_type=1&s_type=7

Anonymous said...

Gil

Is there anyway to keep the "total counts" for the year on all MLB umpires (35) plate jobs like you did for each individual game of the series. Might be interesting for the yearly totals. Of course if you want to look at one particular game you can still pull that 1 game up on pitchf/x.
It would also be interesting to see the call ups totals for the year just like you did in the series. We might could tell by the numbers who the next call up might be to become a member of the MLBU staff. We might be able to tell if a call up with a 90% accuracy did not get the call due to another call up having a 96% accuracy. They say you drive the caddy with your plate work, so let's see what the call ups accuracy for the whole year year are. It would be interesting to see the percentages of those who fill the full time spots versus the ones who do not. Of course we know that MLB uses Zone evaluator for their metrics, but it would be interesting to see with your metrics. Maybe we could try and guess the playoff umpires based on their plate work during the season.

Anonymous said...

tmac said...

There are certain pitches you just can't miss. A 3-2 inning ender that results in runs being scored because you miss the pitch is one of them. I can forgive a lot of missed pitches but Layne's miss may have been a game changer. a 3-2 game is pitched and so much differently then a 5-2 game Gil i hope you know that.
I mean if a leadoff double is hit in the 7th by texas they would obviously bunt him over. The idea that well Texas didn't score another run so clearly the call didn't matter in the scheme of the game is beyond insane.
These are the games I love because as an umpire you have a chance to define your career just like a player would (SEE JACK MORRIS circa 1991). Layne defined it all right. An average major league umpire who got a push because he was friends with the bosses.
The ump was a factor in game 7 of the world series. Nobody will EVER know if he was the deciding factor.. but that one HUGE missed call will taint the great 2011 series forever.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

There shouldn't have been a 7th game. Those HUGE mistakes in game 6 by the Rangers will taint the great 2011 series forever.

Anonymous said...

tmac: is jerry layne a marsh/torre favorite? it sure seemed like that in the press conference

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

Always, there are more than one reason a game is won or lost...however 14 of 17 missed calls went against the Rangers? The Cards are 9-1 with Layne behind the plate, the rangers are 1-7 with Layne behind the plate?? No matter how you personally may want to spin that, catagorically, these are NOT statistically insignificant numbers. That is beyond chance, and tragically unfortunate for game 7 of the world series.
October 28, 2011 11:41 PM

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

What are the stats for these games. In the games that St. Louis won with Layne, was STL using their No. 1 and 2 pitcher and the other team using their 4 and 5 pitchers. Did the other team make errors that led to the runs. Did the other team have lots of players on the DL. Was STL in the middle of a winning streak and the losers in the middle of a losing streak. Did the other teams pitchers have lots of legitimate walks in those games that gave STL the potential to win when Layne was behind the plate. What are all the pitch F/X scores and the play by play on all of these games. Did the opposing manager make some wrong moves to lose the games when Layne worked the plate with STL. Where are all the intangibles that might not be mentioned.
Were all the Ranger games ones using the 1 and 2 starter or was it the 5 and 6 starter. Were the Rangers in a losing streak. Were several starters on the DL. Were there games when a lot of players that were call ups were used by the Rangers in September. Did the other teams throw their No. 1 and No. 2 guys against the Rangers. Was Verlander the pitcher if Layne had the Tigers against the Rangers. Let's see all the stats and pitch counts and what pitches were missed. Let's have all the stats, not just how many wins and loses.

I guess all the umpires were for the Braves during that streak where they went to the playoffs for 14 out of 15 years with that grumpy old guy who was always getting tossed. It must have been the whole umpiring staff who gave them way more wins (1363) than loses (883) to have them get to the playoffs that many years. What a disperity of games won versus lost with the whole umpiring staff. Guess the umps really wanted the Braves to win badly enough, so badly that they helped them win more than 60% of their games. That is way over a 50/50 split statistically speaking.

Anonymous said...

Gil

Where is the link to the fair/foul call in the 9th that you mentioned was missed? thanks.

Gil "R.O." said...

@1:50pm, I believe you're referring to the call in Game 1 that FOX decided to use infrared to prove: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19923669

Anonymous said...

Honestly, this stat about St Louis being 9-1 with Layne and Texas being 1-7 with Layne is pretty insignificant without further details. A lot of things go into play to determine who wins a game, not just one umpire. Whose pitching, how the batters bat, errors, etc. can all play a point.

Anonymous said...

I mean, by that logic, the umpires are all biased against the Astros because the Astros have a terrible record with those umpires.

Seriously, have you ever heard the phrase "correlation doesn't necessitate causation"?

Gil "R.O." said...

Is there anyway to keep the "total counts" for the year on all MLB umpires (35) plate jobs like you did for each individual game of the series. Might be interesting for the yearly totals
--

In regards to tracking every plate job in baseball, it could be done. Unfortunately, the time commitment would be very significant, and that's just not possible right now.

--

To put Layne's last 10: Cardinals 8-2 / Rangers 3-7 record in perspective (not including Game 7)...
Cardinals were expected to go 4-6 in those games, so their actual was +4 wins
Rangers were expected to go 4-6 in their games, so their actual was -1 win

Putting them together, Layne's last 19 STL/TEX games (taking out one game for the Game 1 when STL-TEX played each other [so as to avoid counting games twice]) resulted in the Cardinals going +5.5 wins OR (not and) Texas going -5.5 wins.

That's using betting lines which take the Carpenters, Hollands, and other SP into account.

However, when you remove all games decided by more than four runs (ie: TEX was expected to win a game with KC that they ended up losing by 9 runs... that blowout game is removed from the data), TEX comes out with +0 wins (out of 5 games), STL comes out with +1 wins (out of 7 games).

Putting it in context, Layne's effect on Texas over the last 5 close games was +0, his effect on STL over the last 5 close games was also +0 (+1 in the last 7 games).

INTERESTING FACT: Layne called Carpenter's games on 10/19/11, 5/14/06 and 5/12/01. Carp was predicted to win all three. Instead, Carp's team won only the 10/19/11 game. As for Harrison, Layne's 4/17/09 call on Harrison was a 12-3 blowout.

Anonymous said...

Gil "R.O." said...

Is there anyway to keep the "total counts" for the year on all MLB umpires (35) plate jobs like you did for each individual game of the series. Might be interesting for the yearly totals
--

In regards to tracking every plate job in baseball, it could be done. Unfortunately, the time commitment would be very significant, and that's just not possible right now.
++++++++++++++++++++

OK--how about the call ups since there are not as many, and they do not work as many games? No live stuff like you had during the playoffs, just end of the year. That way we could see the correlation between the plate job percentages for those that move up to full time and those that do not.
Oh yes, I totally understand the time constraints, etc. Just asking.

Anonymous said...

Gil

Were the teams that played against the Cardinals during those Cardinal wins, using their 1,2 pitchers or 4,5, or fill in minor leaguer's. Did the other team make crucial errors, or have a lot of walks. Were the games during September and maybe earlier against teams that were already out of the playoffs and using a lot of 40 roster players. Were there a lot of games with the other teams at less than full strength, and major players on the DL? Did the manager make any boneheaded moves. What were the pitch statistics of those games. Did Layne call all those games with 15 out of 18 close pitches for the Cardinals in those games also.

Same questions for Texas. Did Texas throw their 1,2 pitchers in their loses or did they throw 4,5,and minor league call up. Did the other team throw their 1,2 or throw their 4,5, and minor leaguers during loses. Were the pitchers ahead in the count? Did they make any crucial errors to give up runs. Were any significant players for Texas on the DL during these loses? Were there discrepancies in Laynes pitches like 14 out of 18 against the Rangers in these loses. Did Washington make any boneheaded mistakes in these loses? Did the Texas players miss signs. Did they miss putting down a bunt to move players over that could have led to runs. Did they leave a lot of runners on base and have a lot of game 6's during these loses also.
We don't just want the significance of loses versus the 50/50 or who was sitting in seat 102B during loses versus non loses. We want these other things addressed including any others that I may have missed.

Scott said...

Hey guys, maybe if we all pool in and set up some sort of donation thing we can pay Gil to do all this statistics work...seriously?? It is all stuff you can find out yourself if you want to spend the time doing it for free as Gil does.

Anonymous said...

I just came from umpire-empire because they're arguing about the 17 missed, 14 for the Cardinals statistic. They're pissed because of facts that show their precious Jerry Layne had a bad day.

Gil, you're a great debater. Game, set, match to the UEFL. Gil, it's not you. It's them. They suck. They look so stupid trying to say that science is wrong, that umpires don't make mistakes, that it's impossible that the calls were lopsided.

Good news UEFL! You have a new fan. I thought an umpire discussion board website would give me a fresh perspective on the game. They have, and not in a good way. THANK GOODNESS that this fantasy league website exists to tell the TRUTH and not to pander to the umpiring "good old boys club."

I think this alone is why baseball needs replay for help with some of their calls, but still not balls and strikes. I just never realized how dense some umps can be. I heard before that there's no accountability. Now I know what that really means.

jrd said...

I think we UEFLers should try to take this thing to the next level next year:

One idea:

-Trying to track nightly pitch f/xs for points in UEFL fantasy league

I know its a time committment, but if Gil and Jeremy could get some help maybe its possible.
This would lead people to take both ejection happy umps and accurate plate umps.

Gil "R.O." said...

It's an interesting idea. re: regular season pitch f/x. As some umpires will tell you, though, as 6:54PM alluded to, even a computer proven to be 100% accurate is not accurate when it comes to officiating. I'll be glad to further discuss the idea during the Rules Summit after we give out Postseason Awards and finalize the standings.

@3:35PM, you're welcome to request a summary like we did for the post-season, just be sure to tell me who you'd like to see and on what day they worked the plate. Just be prepared for a slight delay.

@3:54 PM, Ah, I must have misread your first post. No problem. Those are quite a handful of variables, I can help you out with some, but it would just take too long to research all of them for every game. Line data is from Covers.com, zone data has been calculated. Zone +/- means net missed calls that ended up helping (+) or hurting (-) the team. For instance, Game 7 would read +11 for STL or -11 for TEX (14 STL - 3 TEX = 11). Zone data unavailable prior to 2007, with some stadiums not offering Pitch f/x during the 2007 season. Not all Stadiums were outfitted and standardized with the technology until the 2008 season. *Indicates unexpected winner.

Please note the following category labels:
HOME - AWAY, HOME SP/AWAY SP, EXPECTED/ACTUAL WINNER, DATE, Zone +/-

Layne, vs. Rangers
STL 3 - TEX 2, Carpenter/Wilson, STL/STL, 10/19/11, +0
TEX 11 - DET 7, Lewis/Galarraga, TEX/TEX, 9/15/10, +2
TB 5 - TEX 4, Garza/Hunter, TB/TB, 8/22/09, -4
TEX 3 - KC 12, Harrison/Meche, TEX/KC, 4/17/09*, -3
SEA 5 - TEX 1, Batista/Millwood, SEA/SEA, 9/29/07, -4
DET 4 - TEX 1, Jurrjens/McCarthy, DET/DET, 9/11/07, +5
TB 4 - TEX 3, Sheilds/McCarthy, TB/TB, 5/15/07, N/A
DET 3 - TEX 11, Verlander/Millwood, DET/TEX, 9/13/06*, N/A
KC 2 - TEX 6, Elarton/Millwood, TEX/TEX, 6/06/06, N/A
TEX 5 - MIN 15, Millwood/Silva, TEX/MIN, 5/09/06*, N/A
Average: -.667

Layne vs. Cardinals
STL 3 - TEX 2, Carpenter/Wilson, STL/STL, 10/19/11, +0
STL 2 - PHI 3, Garcia/Hamels, PHI/PHI, 10/04/11, -4
STL 7 - FLA 5, McClellan/Sanchez, STL/STL, 5/03/11, +1
ARI 2 - STL 8, Enright/McClellan, STL/STL, 4/11/11, -2
DET 4 - STL 9, Pitchers N/A, DET/STL, 3/16/11*, N/A
ATL 2 - STL 1, Pitchers N/A, ATL/ATL, 3/10/11, N/A
STL 5 - PHI 1, Garcia/Blanton, STL/STL, 7/21/10, -7
STL 11 - DET 2, Wainwright/Verlander, DET/STL, 6/16/09*, -3
ATL 3 - STL 5, Vazquez/Wainwright, ATL/STL, 4/29/09*, -6
LAD 0 - STL 4, Penny/Lohse, LAD/STL, 5/24/08*, +3
Average: -2.25

The data suggests that on the average (last 6 TEX, last 8 STL games), Layne has had a net -.667 calls go against Texas, while a net -2.25 calls have gone against St. Louis. That should rule out the idea of historical bias toward St.Louis/against Texas.

Anonymous said...

If I am not mistaken, the 9/15/10 involved a Jerry Layne ejection of Jim Leyland.

Anonymous said...

YGTBSM

Come on Gil

2 spring training games put into the mix of the Cardinals going 8-1 with Layne. That's totally Bush League.

Do we need to discuss that the Stl/Fl game had one unearned run scored when Sanchez walked the guy in on a pitch that wasn't even close or that he gave up a 2 run dinger to Holladay on a pitch right down broadway. There's 3 runs that never should have been. Nothing looked out of ordinary on pitches for both starters.

Arizona-Stl 8-2 Really??? with that score.
On Enright he missed 2 balls that were strikes but they were # 1 pitches. Pitch to ring up Shumacher was out of the zone.
McClelland walked 4. He called 2 strikes a ball #1 pitches and gave 2 strikes 1 a #1 pitch the other a #3 pitch neither of which rung anyone up.

Stl/Phl 5-1. Really again. Stl 2 unearned runs off Blanton on throw by catcher. Missed 5 strikes on Blanton that were called a ball, all in upper area of zone but all were #1 pitch or # 2 pitch.
Missed 8 of those on Garcia 5 #1 pitches and 2 #2 and 1#4 none of which caused a walk.

Stl/Det---11-2--really.
Verlander said he felt fatigued in bullpen warming up---with runner on 2nd Leyland walked Pujols intentionally and then Verlander gave up 3 consecutive hits including 2 back to back doubles.

LA/Stl==4-0---really again. Losche had 4 ball called a strike 3 were #1 pitches one a #4. Penny had one ball called a strike a #4 pitch.

Nothing looked out of ordinary on these wins.

We do not care about the line in Vegas and any umpire could have had these same results. Just because a team has this record of wins and losses means nothing. Maybe if you could show the 14 for 18 pitches against a team on every game you would have an anomaly, but this string of games could have happened to any umpire that was put in these same games.

We want the other things shown when umpires work the games a record like this, not just what the line in Vegas says that a team should not be that lucky with Layne. The other teams caused these loses upon themselves. Jerry or anyone else would have had the same results. Just luck of the draw that STL played and won these games with him.

Once again 2 spring training games= Bush League.
Your better than that. And yes, all umpires miss calls.

Umpire school starts in a couple months. Takes about 8 years in the minors and you go up in your 9th season like Bellino. Thats less time than becomming a Doctor. You start around 120k and end around 365k at the end of 26 years, so a 10k raise each year.

Gil "R.O." said...

As I mentioned before, all I do is provide data. I do not filter material from Covers/Dallas nor do I draw conclusions from the data. I present facts, occasionally calculate or dissect figures into categories, but I do not draw conclusions. I believe data often speaks for itself, and it is more productive to let others draw their own conclusions.

Keep in mind I referenced 8-1 as something Dallas news came up with. Dallas referred to Covers, left out a second loss, and neglected to mention the missed call +/-.

As I painstakingly pointed out above, Layne's net missed calls that harmed Texas are -.667 over their past 6 games, for St. Louis it is -2.25 over their past 8 games (-2.5 over their past 6). Both figures look pretty routine and rule out the possibility of any suspicious patterns against any particular team.

tmac said...

I was asked earlier if Layne is a Torre/Marsh Fav:

Layne is a Marsh Fav, but i can't speak for Torre. I do know that Torre is greatly influenced with what Randy Marsh tels him. Take that for what it's worth.

To gil and Jeremy: great work this year: I look forward to a fun offseason and this site's continued future success in helping umpires young and old in a thoughtful process of dialogue

Anonymous said...

Gil

From Anonymous at 10:53

Thanks for what you do, do. It took me 10 times as long as it would have taken you to look into those games, so although I wanted to point those games out, I do understand, even though I am not a statiscian or speller for that matter most of what you are saying. Thanks for your time to do this site.

Anonymous said...

Agreed. This is the best umpire website on the internet, bar none. I loved the live tracking for the playoffs this year. I can only imagine how time consuming that must have been.

It's like MLB Fan Cave for Umpires, that's what this site is, how devoted to MLB Umpiring news coverage this is. I dig it. A lot.

Can't wait for 2012 UEFL and for the rest of the postseason awards and rules summit.

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