|This angle hides the glove and is inconclusive.|
Confirmed: Video and/or audio evidence was sufficient to verify the on-field ruling as correct.
Stands: Evidence failed to clearly and convincingly suggest the call was correct or incorrect.
Overturned: Evidence clearly and convincingly suggested the on-field ruling was incorrect.
Over the course of the 2016 regular season, approximately 26% of all replay outcomes were "Call Stands," compared to 23% confirmed and 51% overturned. "Stands" is nothing new: this is but one of hundreds.
|There are a few potential touches to consider.|
As written back in July, "From the very beginning, Replay Affirmation Percentage (RAP) was designed to be a low number." Even 49% (26% Stands + 23% Confirmed) is too high. 23% Confirmed, itself, is too high.
|This angle similarly is obstructed and unclear.|
So let's flip the page and talk about Game 4 of the NLCS and Angel Hernandez ruling Adrian Gonzalez out on a close play at home plate. (Quick recap: Dodgers batter Andrew Toles hit a line drive to right field, fielded on a bounce by Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward, who threw to catcher Willson Contreras as Dodgers baserunner R2 Adrian Gonzalez slid into home plate.)
As the following analysis will indicate, Adrian Gonzalez in his post-game comments got it 100% right when he said, "Unfortunately, this turned into a trial and there was not enough evidence."
|At this point, no one has touched anything.|
Meanwhile, the high right field foul angle (pictured to the left) is inconclusive, but potentially helpful: Although two consecutive frames on this camera conclusively feature neither Gonzalez nor Contreras touching anything of relevance (first frame) and both players touching the plate or the player, as applicable (second frame), this angle does suggest that Contreras did not tag Gonzalez's left arm, which is suggested by the reverse left field line camera angle, pictured above.
|This angle turns out to be inconclusive, too.|
|This still photo suggests upward fingers.|
PHOTO: Getty Images, CBS
Accordingly, this bang-bang play, which is anything but the type of "obvious miss" Replay Review was initially installed to correct, receives a "Call Stands" ruling by Replay Official Paul Nauert, because the aforementioned replay angles—including the combination of the high right field foul angle and the low reverse left foul line angle—do not clearly and convincingly show fingers on home plate with no tag having been made, nor do they clearly and convincingly show a mitt on the jaw with no touch of home plate having been made.
Thanks to Replay Review, this "game of inches" has turned into a "game of millimeters." [Video via "read more"]