Sunday, May 18, 2014

MLB Instant Replay Review Statistics: Week 7 Sabermetrics

Instant Replay Review Statistics and Sabermetrics are now available for MLB Week 7. As the numbers and trends begin to form, Close Call Sports and the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League continues with the strategic statistics reporting, the first measure of umpire-centric sabermetrics in professional baseball. Visit Instant Replay Review Statistics 101: Week 1 Sabermetrics for an introduction to Replay Review definitions and terms, including Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP), also known as QOC (Quality of Correctness), Replay Percentage of Success (RPS), alternatively, 1.000 - RAP = RPS, and Manager's Challenge Success Percentage (CSP). Also included is Team Success Percentage (TSP), which includes all Replay Reviews; both Manager's Challenges and Crew Chief Reviews.

With Week 7 of the MLB Regular Season in the books, the UEFL recaps professional baseball's "this time it counts" living experiment with Instant Replay Reviews. Our sample size is n=310.

Key bullet points:
"Team Most Used" (Made use of Replay Review most often): Chicago Cubs, Oakland A's - 18.
"Team Least Used" (Least use of Replay): Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles - 4.
"Manager's Challenge Leaders" (Most challenges filed): Rick Renteria - 17 (.529 CSP)
"Most successful Manager" (Manager with highest CSP): Mike Redmond - .889 in 8/9.
"League average Manager" (Average CSP for all Managers): .534
"Least successful Manager" (Manager with lowest CSP): John Farrell - .200 in 1/5.
"Most successful team in review" (Team with highest TSP): Atlanta Braves - .833.
"Umpire most questioned" (Most Replay Reviews): Jim Reynolds - 10 (.500 RAP).
"Crew most questioned" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Reviews): Larry Vanover - 20 (.300).
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): Bellino, Carapazza - 1.000 in 5/5.
"Umpire of greatest overturn" (Umpire with lowest RAP): T Welke, Scott, Tumpane - .000 in 0/3.
"Overall affirmation or QOC percentage" (Overall RAP): .516 (160/310 Affirmed Replay Reviews).
Team Status Pre-Review (Winning or Losing prior to review [Win-Loss-Tied]): 101-135-74.
Team Status Post-Review (Game Record [W-L]): 151-159. (Delta: 50-24; WPCT: .676).

Actual data:
Games Played: 652 of 2430.
Replay Reviews & Decisions Rendered: 310 (on pace for 1,155 [+8 from last wk] Replay Reviews)
- Crew Chief Reviews (Replay Reviews initiated by the Umpire Chief): 46 (15%), .842 RAP.
- Manager's Challenges (Replay Reviews initiated by the Club Manager): 264 (85%), .467 RAP.

- By Inning: 9 (45), 8 (42), 7 (40), 6 (35), 5 (34), 3 (28), 4 (26), 1 (25), 2 (24), Extras (11).
- By Type: Safe/Out (239), HR/Not (24), Rule 7.13 (14), HBP/Foul (13), Fair/Foul - Catch/Trap (6).
- By Day of Week: Sun (61), Mon (47), Wed (46), Fri (43), Sat (45), Thurs (35), Tues (33).

Teams Most Used - Quantity of Replay Reviews (both Crew Chief & Manager's Challenge)
1. Oakland Athletics: 18 (9 Crew Chief Reviews [.778 RAP], 9 Challenges [.667 RAP]).
1. Chicago Cubs: 18 (1 Crew Chief Review [1.000 RAP], 17 Challenges [.471 RAP]).
3. Tampa Bay Rays: 16 (16 Challenges [.688 RAP]).
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 15 (15 Challenges [.400 RAP]).
5. New York Yankees: 14 (2 Crew Chief Reviews [1.000 RAP], 12 Challenges [.250 RAP]).

Most Successful Managers - Managers with Highest CSP
1. Mike Redmond (Miami Marlins): .889 (8/9 Challenges Overturned).
2. Bud Black (San Diego Padres): .857 (6/7 Challenges Overturned).
3. Fredi Gonzalez (Atlanta Braves): .833 (5/6 Challenges Overturned).
4. Joe Girardi (New York Yankees): .750 (9/12 Challenges Overturned).
4. Buck Showalter (Baltimore Orioles): .750 (3/4 Challenges Overturned).
6. Ned Yost (Kansas City Royals): .714 (5/7 Challenges Overturned).
7. Bo Porter (Houston Astros): .700 (7/10 Challenges Overturned).
8. Brad Ausmus (Detroit Tigers): .667 (6/9 Challenges Overturned).
9. Bruce Bochy (San Francisco Giants): .667 (6/9 Challenges Overturned).
10. Clint Hurdle (Pittsburgh Pirates): .600 (9/15 Challenges Overturned).

Least Successful Managers - Managers with Lowest CSP
1. John Farrell (Boston Red Sox): .200 (1/5 Challenges Overturned).
2. Mike Matheny (St. Louis Cardinals): .250 (1/4 Challenges Overturned).
3. Joe Maddon (Tampa Bay Rays): .313 (5/16 Challenges Overturned).
4. Bryan Price (CIN), Terry Francona (CLE), Bob Melvin (OAK), John Gibbons (TOR): .333.
8. Robin Ventura (Chicago White Sox): .375 (3/8 Challenges Overturned).
9. Matt Williams (Washington Nationals): .429 (3/7 Challenges Overturned).
10. Walt Weiss (COL), Ron Washington (TEX): .444.

Team Success Percentage - TSP
1. Atlanta Braves - .833
2. Baltimore Orioles - .750
3. Houston Astros - .700
4. Miami Marlins - .692
5. Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres - .667
8. New York Yankees - .643
9. Kansas City Royals - .625
10. Pittsburgh Pirates - .600
11. Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, New York Mets - .571
14. Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers - .546
16. Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks - .500
League Average - .484
18. Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers - .455
21. Chicago White Sox - .400
22. Seattle Mariners, Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals - .333
25. Tampa Bay Rays - .313
26. Toronto Blue Jays - .294
27. Boston Red Sox - .286
28. Oakland Athletics - .278
29. Cleveland Indians - .273
30. Cincinnati Reds - .222

Umpire Accuracy - Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP Ranking)
1. Dan Bellino, Vic Carapazza - 1.000 (5/5)
3. Clint Fagan, Chris Guccione, Mike Estabrook - 1.000 (4/4)
6. Jordan Baker - 1.000 (3/3)
7. Chris Segal, Jim Wolf, Adam Hamari - 1.000 (2/2)
10. Scott Barry, Fieldin Culbreth, Tom Hallion, John Hirschbeck, Ron Kulpa, Al Porter - 1.000 (1/1)
16. Greg Gibson - .857 (6/7)
17. Tim Timmons - .833 (5/6)
18. Tripp Gibson - .800 (4/5)
19. Jerry Meals, Mark Wegner, Hunter Wendelstedt - .750
...
62. Kerwin Danley, Gerry Davis, Mike DiMuro, Marty Foster, Toby Basner - .250
67. CB Bucknor, Angel Hernandez - .200 (both 1/5)
69. Bill Welke - .143 (1/7)
70. Tim Welke, Dale Scott, John Tumpane, Pat Hoberg, Mike Muchlinski, Andy Fletcher, Jeff Kellogg, Bill Miller, Stu Scheurwater, Tom Woodring - .000.

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