Friday, September 2, 2016

UEFL's MLB Umpire Sabermetrics Update - August 2016

MLB Umpire Sabermetrics through August feature 147 ejections and 1,206 Replay Reviews through 1,987 games played.

We presently expect 180 ejections this season, and 1,475 Replay Reviews. As previously noted, ejections dropped off after the Joe Torre memo, but so too did Replay Reviews. After overturned Replays outnumbered affirmed rulings for the first time in MLB history, the trend not only continued, but accelerated in pace: overturned calls now make up over 51% of all Replay Reviews.

Summary, Ejections.
>> 147 Total Regular Season Ejections through August 31, 2016 (on pace for 180 ejections this season).
>> Umpires were 62.0% accurate on calls associated with ejection.
>> The Blue Jays were ejected more often than any other team.
>> Manager John Gibbons of the Toronto Blue Jays continued to lead all managers in ejections.
>> Player Yunel Escobar of the LA Angels continued to lead all players in ejections.
>> Umpires Dale Scott and Mike Everitt led all umpires in ejections.
>> Chief Dale Scott's crew led all umpire crews in ejections.
>> Most ejections occurred in the 8th inning; Ejections from 7th and on comprised 46% of all tosses.
>> Most ejections occurred on Saturdays & Sundays. Weekend series (Fri-Sun) featured 53% of all heave-ho's.
>> The most common reason for ejection was Balls/Strikes, followed by Throwing At.
>> All else equal, a team tied at the time of ejection ended up winning the game 84% of the time.

Summary, Replay Reviews.
>> 1206 Total Replay Reviews, of which calls were affirmed 48.6% of the time (51.4% overturned).
>> The Miami Marlins used replay more than any other team, and beat the league average.
>> The Kansas City Royals continued to be the League's most successful team in review.
>> The Minnesota Twins experienced fewer reviews than any other team, and were fairly successful.
>> The Washington Nationals continued to be the worst MLB team in terms of Replay success.
>> Umpire Dan Iassogna had a league-leading 26 calls reviewed, and was fairly inaccurate.
>> Jeff Nelson's crew led all of baseball in replay activity, and performed at about the league average.
>> Umpire Quinn Wolcott led the league in accuracy with most of his calls affirmed by replay.
>> Umpire Toby Basner experienced the highest rate of his calls being overturned by replay.
>> The 7th inning had more reviews than any other inning. 41% of all reviews occurred from 7th-on.
>> Most reviews occurred on Sundays; Calls were most often overturned in daytime conditions.
>> The most common reason for review was Out/Safe, followed by Pulled Foot and HBP/No HBP.

For detailed sabermetric analysis of MLB umpire ejections and instant replay review outcomes, follow the "read more" link below.
Total Games Played Through August 31, 2016: 1987 of 2430 (81.8% of the season schedule).

Umpire Ejection Sabermetrics
Ejections: 147. At this pace (147 E / 1987 G), there will be 180 Ejections at regular season's end.
"Team most active" (Team with most Ejections): TOR 14; PIT 12; DET 10; ATL, CWS 7.
"Team least active" (Team with least Ejections): MIL, PHI, STL 1; BAL, NYY, SEA 2; CHC, SD, TB 3.
"Manager ejections leader" (Most Ejections): John Gibbons 6; Clint Hurdle 5; (7 Tied) 3.
"Player ejections leader": Yunel Escobar 3; Donaldson, Harper, Caminero, Pierzynski 2.
"Umpire leader" (Umpire with most Ejections): Dale Scott, Mike Everitt 6; Kellogg, Carapazza 5.
"Crew most active" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Ejections): Scott 15; Everitt 13; Miller 9.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest QOC): Jeff Kellogg (3/3 + 2 U = 1.000 QOCY).
"Overall QOC percentage" (Overall QOC Y value): .620 (75 Y / 46 N) + 26 Irrecusable = 147 Total.
"Team Status Pre-Ejection" (Winning-Losing-Tied [W-L-T] Record prior to Ejection): 25-97-25.
"Team Status Post-Ejection" (Game Record [W-L]): 46-101. (Delta: 21-4; WPCT: .840).

By Inning: 8 (25); 5 (20); 6, 9 (18); 3, 7 (17); 4 (14); 1 (6); 2 (5); Extra Innings (7).
By Reason: Balls/Strikes (87); Throwing At (13); Check Swing, Replay Review (9); Balk (6).
By Day of Week: Sat, Sun (27); Wed (25); Fri (24); Tues (20); Mon (13); Thurs (11).

Umpire Instant Replay Review Sabermetrics
Replay Reviews & Decisions Rendered: 1206, .486 RAP (586/1206). On pace for 1475 Replays.
"Team Most Used" (Used Replay Review most often): MIA 53; COL, STL 51; CIN, PIT, SD 50; TOR 49.
"Team Least Used" (Least use of Replay): MIN 24; NYM 26; OAK, NYY 29; DET, LAD 32; CWS 34.
"Most successful team in review" (Team with highest TSP): Royals - .686 (24/35).
"Least successful team in review" (Team with lowest TSP): Nationals - .378 (17/45).
"Umpire most questioned" (Most Replay Reviews): Dan Iassogna 26; Carlson 23; Fagan 22.
"Crew most questioned" (Most Reviewed Crew): Nelson 66; Cederstrom, Everitt, Hallion 65; Davis 61.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): Quinn Wolcott - .769 (10 Y in 13 Total).
"Ump of greatest overturn" (Umpire with lowest RAP): Toby Basner - .167 (2 Y in 12 Total).

Actual data (Raw Data for Replay Reviews):
- By Inning: 7 (166); 8 (157); 9 (136); 6 (135); 5 (131); 3 (126); 4 (116); 1 (112); 2 (86); Exras (41).
- By Reason: Out/Safe (816); Out/Pulled Foot (68); HBP/No (36); HR/In Play (31); Tag/No Tag (29).
- By Day of Week: Sun (215); Sat (207); Tues (195); Fri (170); Wed (169); Mon (144); Thurs (106).

Umpire Replay Review Leaderboard (Only Includes Umpires with a Minimum of Six Replays)
Umpire Accuracy in Replay Reviews (Ranked by Review Affirmation Percentage [RAP])
0.7692307692Wolcott, Quinn1
0.7647058824Hallion, Tom2
0.7058823529De Jesus, Ramon3
0.7Everitt, Mike4
0.6875Gibson, Tripp5
0.6666666667Torres, Carlos6
0.6666666667Reyburn, DJ6
0.6666666667Barrett, Ted6
0.6666666667Marquez, Alfonso6
0.6666666667Hoberg, Pat6
0.65Nelson, Jeff11
0.6470588235Porter, Alan12
0.6428571429Layne, Jerry13
0.625Kellogg, Jeff14
0.6153846154Little, Will15
0.6153846154Hamari, Adam15
0.6Baker, Jordan17
0.6Holbrook, Sam17
0.6DeMuth, Dana17
0.5882352941Reynolds, Jim20
0.5833333333Winters, Mike21
0.5833333333Wendelstedt, Hunter21
0.5714285714Gibson, Greg23
0.5714285714Barry, Scott23
0.5625Blakney, Ryan25
0.5454545455Vanover, Larry26
0.5454545455Hickox, Ed26
0.5384615385Johnson, Adrian28
0.5333333333West, Joe29
0.5333333333Wegner, Mark29
0.5333333333Muchlinski, Mike29
0.5294117647Eddings, Doug32
0.5263157895Miller, Bill33
0.5238095238Conroy, Chris34
0.5Randazzo, Tony35
0.5Estabrook, Mike35
0.5Danley, Kerwin35
0.5Welke, Bill35
0.5Bucknor, CB35
0.5DiMuro, Mike35
0.4761904762Timmons, Tim41
0.4705882353Blaser, Cory42
0.4705882353Bellino, Dan42
0.4666666667Nauert, Paul44
0.4666666667Barksdale, Lance44
0.4615384615Cooper, Eric46
0.4615384615Carapazza, Vic46
0.4545454545Fagan, Clint48
0.4444444444Hirschbeck, John49
0.4444444444Foster, Marty49
0.4444444444Emmel, Paul49
0.4444444444Cederstrom, Gary49
0.4444444444Kulpa, Ron49
0.4444444444Gonzalez, Manny49
0.4375Culbreth, Fieldin55
0.4347826087Carlson, Mark56
0.4285714286Gorman, Brian57
0.4285714286Barber, Sean57
0.4166666667Knight, Brian59
0.4166666667Guccione, Chris59
0.4117647059Ripperger, Mark61
0.4117647059Hudson, Marvin61
0.4May, Ben63
0.4Fletcher, Andy63
0.4Wolf, Jim63
0.4Tumpane, John63
0.3846153846Hernandez, Angel67
0.3846153846Drake, Rob67
0.375Barrett, Lance69
0.3636363636Lentz, Nic70
0.3636363636Hoye, James70
0.3571428571Joyce, Jim72
0.3333333333Morales, Gabe73
0.3333333333Davidson, Bob73
0.3333333333Fairchild, Chad73
0.3333333333Diaz, Laz73
0.3333333333Whitson, Chad73
0.2941176471Scott, Dale78
0.2692307692Iassogna, Dan79
0.2631578947Davis, Gerry80
0.25Cuzzi, Phil81
0.2307692308Meals, Jerry82
0.2Tichenor, Todd83
0.1666666667Basner, Toby84


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