Tuesday, August 1, 2017

UEFL's MLB Umpire Sabermetrics - July 2017

UEFL's MLB Umpire Sabermetrics report for July 2017 is now available, featuring 118 ejections and 889 Replay Reviews through 1,574 games played.

Ejections and replays are both projected to decrease year-over-year, based on current rates.

The attached Most & Least Accurate Umpires, Replay Review contains the top and bottom of the Replay Review table ordinarily found in the "Read More" detailed section of the monthly report.

Summary, Ejections.
>> 118 Total Regular Season Ejections through July 31, 2017 (on pace for 182 ejections this season).
>> Umpires were 63.0% accurate on calls associated with ejection.
>> The Chicago White Sox led MLB in ejections. The Dodgers and Marlins tied for the NL lead.
>> Manager Rick Renteria led MLB in ejections. Don Mattingly led the NL in managerial ejections.
>> Umpires Bill Welke, Sam Holbrook, and Phil Cuzzi led all umpires in ejections.
>> Chief Sam Holbrook's crew led all umpire crews in ejections.
>> Most ejections occurred in the 8th inning; Ejections from 7th and on comprised 45% of all tosses.
>> Most ejections occurred on Saturdays. Weekend series (Fri-Sun) featured 50% of all heave-ho's.
>> The most common reason for ejection was Balls/Strikes, followed by Check Swing.
>> All else equal, a team tied at the time of ejection ended up winning the game 95.2% of the time.

Summary, Replay Reviews.
>> 889 Total Replay Reviews, of which calls were affirmed 51.2% of the time (48.8% overturned).
>> The Tampa Bay Rays used replay more than any other team, but were fairly unsuccessful.
>> The Kansas City Royals were the League's most successful team in review (17-for-23).
>> The BAL Orioles experienced fewer reviews than any other team, and were 2nd best in MLB.
>> The Blue Jays were the worst MLB team in terms of Replay success (8-of-27).
>> Umpire Doug Eddings had a league-leading 20 calls reviewed, and was above average in outcome.
>> Jeff Nelson's crew led all of baseball in replay activity, and performed at league average.
>> Umpire Chad Fairchild led in accuracy with all of his calls affirmed by replay (5/5).
>> Umpire Gerry Davis experienced the highest rate of his calls being overturned by replay (0/5).
>> The 7th inning had more reviews than any other inning. 33% of all reviews occurred from 7th-on.
>> Most reviews occurred on Sundays; Weekend series (Fri-Sun) featured 52% of all replays.
>> The most common reason for review was Out/Safe (Force - 1st) followed by Out/Safe (Tag - In).

Most & Least Accurate Umpires, Replay Review (sorted by Review Affirmation Percentage [RAP]).
1. Chad Fairchild, Pat Hoberg, Sean Barber, Dale Scott - 100% RAP.
5. Vic Carapazza - 81.8% RAP.
6. Alfonso Marquez - 78.6% RAP.
7. Bill Miller - 77.8% RAP.
8. Adam Hamari, Quinn Wolcott - 75.0% RAP.
10. Chris Guccione - 72.7% RAP.
85. Ron Kulpa, Dana DeMuth - 20.0% RAP.
87. Lance Barrett, Kerwin Danley, Brian O'Nora - 14.3% RAP.
90. Gerry Davis, John Libka - 0.0% RAP.

For detailed sabermetric analysis of MLB umpire ejections and instant replay review outcomes, including a Replay Review umpire leaderboard, follow the "read more" link below.
Total Games Played Through May 31, 2017: 1,574 of 2430 (64.8% of the season has been played).

Umpire Ejection Sabermetrics
Ejections: 118. (Compare to 120 through June 2016). Pace is 182 ejections / 2430 games played.
"Team most active" (Team with most Ejections): CWS 12; TOR 7; BOS, LAD, MIA, TB, TEX 6.
"Team least active" (Team with least Ejections): CLE 0; BAL, LAA, PHI 1.
"Manager ejections leader" (Most Ejections): Rick Renteria 6; Gibbons, Banister, Mattingly 4.
"Player ejections leader": Bryce Harper, Miguel Sano 2.
"Umpire leader" (Most Ejections): Bill Welke, Sam Holbrook, Phil Cuzzi 6; Will Little 5.
"Crew most active" (Crew with most Ejections): Holbrook 15; Hallion 11; Everitt 9; Emmel, West 8.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest QOC): Culbreth, Emmel (3 Y / 0 N + 1 U = 1.000 QOCY).
"Overall QOC percentage" (Overall QOC Y value): .630 (63 Y / 37 N) + 18 Irrecusable = 118 Total.
"Team Status Pre-Ejection" (Winning-Losing-Tied [W-L-T] Record prior to Ejection): 22-75-21.
"Team Status Post-Ejection" (Game Record [W-L]): 42-76. (Delta: 20-1; WPCT: .952).

By Inning: 8 (19); 5 (18); 7, 9 (17); 6 (16); 1 (10); 2, 4 (7); 3 (6); Extras (1).
By Reason: Balls/Strikes (65); Check Swing (8); Throwing At, Replay Review (7); Balk, Fighting (6).
By Day of Week: Sat (23); Sun (19); Wed, Thurs, Fri (17); Mon (14); Tues (11).

Umpire Instant Replay Review Sabermetrics
Replay Reviews & Decisions Rendered: 889, .512 RAP (455/889). On pace for 1372 replays.
"Team Most Used" (Used Replay Review most often): TB, TEX 47; ATL 40; PIT 39; CHC 38; TOR 37.
"Team Least Used" (Least use of Replay): BAL 19; MIA 20; PHI, WAS 21; CWS, KC 23; SF, NYY 24.
"Most successful team in review" (Team with highest TSP): Royals - .739 (17/23).
"Least successful team in review" (Team with lowest TSP): Blue Jays - .297 (11/37).
"Umpire most questioned" (Most Replay Reviews): Doug Eddings 20; Fagan 18; (3 Tied) 16.
"Crew most questioned" (Most Reviewed Crew): Jeff Nelson 55; Winters 52; T Barrett 49.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): Chad Fairchild - 1.000 (5 Y in 5 Total).
"Ump of greatest overturn" (Umpire with lowest RAP): Gerry Davis - .000 (0 Y in 5 Total).

Actual data (Raw Data for Replay Reviews):
- By Inning: 7 (101); 8 (96); 9 (78); 4, 6 (67); 1 (65); 5 (60); 3 (58); 2 (57); Extras (20).
- By Reason: Out/Safe [Force - 1st] 227; Out/Safe [Tag - Into Base] 154; Out/Safe [Tag - Stolen Base] 93; Out/Safe [Pulled Foot] 67; Out/Safe [Tag - Pickoff] 44; HR/In Play 40; HBP/No HBP 38.
- By Day of Week: Sun (178); Sat (147); Fri (135); Tues (123); Wed (109); Thurs (101); Mon (96).

Umpire Replay Review Leaderboard
Umpire Accuracy in Replay Reviews (Ranked by Review Affirmation Percentage [RAP])
100.0%Barber, Sean1
100.0%Fairchild, Chad1
100.0%Hoberg, Pat1
100.0%Scott, Dale1
81.8%Carapazza, Vic5
78.6%Marquez, Alfonso6
77.8%Miller, Bill7
75.0%Hamari, Adam8
75.0%Wolcott, Quinn8
72.7%Guccione, Chris10
71.4%Foster, Marty11
71.4%Cuzzi, Phil11
70.0%Baker, Jordan13
69.2%Rackley, Dave14
66.7%Blakney, Ryan15
66.7%Ortiz, Roberto15
66.7%Segal, Chris15
66.7%Little, Will15
66.7%Carlson, Mark15
66.7%Gibson, Greg15
64.3%Porter, Alan21
64.3%Tumpane, John21
64.3%West, Joe21
62.5%Reynolds, Jim24
61.5%Cooper, Eric25
60.0%Livensparger, Shane26
60.0%Barrett, Ted26
60.0%Bucknor, CB26
60.0%Meals, Jerry26
60.0%Wegner, Mark26
60.0%Eddings, Doug26
58.3%Dreckman, Bruce32
57.1%Hoye, James33
57.1%Layne, Jerry33
55.6%Cederstrom, Gary35
55.6%Drake, Rob35
55.6%Gibson, Tripp35
55.6%Gorman, Brian35
54.5%Culbreth, Fieldin39
53.8%Hudson, Marvin40
53.8%Whitson, Chad40
50.0%Wendelstedt, Hunter42
50.0%De Jesus, Ramon42
50.0%Johnson, Adrian42
50.0%Diaz, Laz42
50.0%Kellogg, Jeff42
50.0%Welke, Bill42
50.0%Estabrook, Mike42
50.0%Everitt, Mike42
50.0%Wolf, Jim42
50.0%Emmel, Paul42
50.0%Nauert, Paul42
50.0%Scheurwater, Stu42
46.7%Muchlinski, Mike54
46.7%Timmons, Tim54
46.2%Blaser, Cory56
45.5%Nelson, Jeff57
45.5%Tichenor, Todd57
44.4%Barksdale, Lance59
44.4%Bellino, Dan59
42.9%Morales, Gabe61
41.7%Vanover, Larry62
40.0%Barry, Scott63
40.0%Knight, Brian63
40.0%Hallion, Tom63
40.0%Hernandez, Angel63
40.0%May, Ben63
40.0%Torres, Carlos63
38.9%Fagan, Clint69
37.5%Conroy, Chris70
37.5%Holbrook, Sam70
33.3%Buckminster, Seth72
33.3%Lentz, Nic72
33.3%Hickox, Ed72
33.3%Reyburn, DJ72
33.3%Winters, Mike72
33.3%Woodring, Tom72
30.8%Ripperger, Mark78
28.6%Fletcher, Andy79
25.0%Basner, Toby80
25.0%DiMuro, Mike80
25.0%Iassogna, Dan80
25.0%Gonzalez, Manny80
22.2%Randazzo, Tony84
20.0%DeMuth, Dana85
20.0%Kulpa, Ron85
14.3%Barrett, Lance87
14.3%Danley, Kerwin87
14.3%O'Nora, Brian87
0.0%Davis, Gerry90
0.0%Libka, John90


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