Wednesday, October 7, 2015

2015 Season's End Umpire Sabermetrics

MLB Ejection & Instant Replay Review Statistics and Umpire Sabermetrics for the 2015 season are now available. Visit 2014's Instant Replay Review Statistics 101: Week 1 Sabermetrics for an introduction to Ejection & Replay Review definitions and terms, including Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP), also known as QOC (Quality of Correctness), Replay Percentage of Success (RPS), alternatively, 1.000 - RAP = RPS, and Manager's Challenge Success Percentage (CSP). Also included is Team Success Percentage (TSP), which includes all Replay Reviews; both Manager's Challenges and Crew Chief Reviews.

The following presentation includes summaries and detailed analysis for ejections and replay data gathered during baseball season's ceremonial first half.

Summary, Ejections.
>> 212 Total Regular Season Ejections through the conclusion of the 2015 regular season.
>> Umpires were 64.8% accurate on calls associated with ejection.
>> The Padres were ejected more often than any other team; the NL West led all MLB divisions.
>> The D-Backs, Braves & Marlins were ejected least often; the AL West trailed all divisions.
>> Managers Murphy, Gibbons, Maddon, Banister & Bochy tied to lead all managers in ejections.
>> Players Bryce Harper, Matt Kemp, Mike Napoli and Joey Votto led in player ejections.
>> Umpires Holbrook & West led all umpires; Tripp Gibson was the most accurate ejector.
>> John Hirschbeck's crew led all of baseball in ejection activity.
>> Most ejections occurred in the 7th inning; Ejections from 7th and on comprised 53% of all tosses.
>> Most ejections occurred on Sundays. Weekend series (Fri-Sun) featured 50% of all heave-ho's.
>> The most common reason for ejection was Balls/Strikes, followed by arguing a Check Swing.

Summary, Replay Reviews.
>> 1335 Total Replay Reviews, of which calls were affirmed 51.2% of the time (48.8% overturned).
>> The Tampa Bay Rays used replay more than any other team, but had below average accuracy.
>> John Hirschbeck's crew led all of baseball in replay activity by a significant margin.
>> Umpire Adam Hamari led the league in accuracy with all of his calls affirmed by replay.
>> Umpire Ben May experienced the highest rate of his calls being overturned by replay.
>> Most reviews occurred in the 7th inning.
>> Most reviews occurred on Friday; Calls were most often overturned in daytime conditions.
>> The most common reason for review was Safe/Out, followed by HR/Not HR and HBP/Foul.

For detailed sabermetric analysis of MLB umpire ejections and instant replay review outcomes, follow the "read more" link below. The advanced data below includes team and individual (by manager/player/umpire) ejection and replay review leaders and statistics, including manager's challenges and crew chief reviews. Complete listed ranking of least and most successful managers in challenging, most successful teams (manager's challenges + crew chief reviews) and review percentages by umpire are included.

Games Played to date: 2430 of 2430 (100% of the season has been played).

Umpire Ejection Sabermetrics
Ejections: 212.
"Team most active" (Team with most Ejections): SD 17; KC 12; TOR 11; BOS 10; CIN 9.
"Team least active" (Team with least Ejections): ARI, ATL, MIA 4; BAL, COL, CWS, MIN, OAK, PHI 5.
"Manager ejections leader" (Most Ejections): Murphy/Gibbons/Maddon/Banister/Bochy 5.
"Player ejections leader" (Player ejection leader): Bryce Harper/Matt Kemp/Mike Napoli/Joey Votto 3.
"Umpire leader" (Umpire with most Ejections): Sam Holbrook, Joe West 8; Hirschbeck/Gibson/Bellino 6.
"Crew most active" (Chief whose crew has most Ejections): John Hirscbheck 17; West/Hallion 13.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest Simple QOC): Tripp Gibson - QOCY 1.000 (5/5).
"Overall QOC percentage" (Overall QOC Y value): .648 (94 Y / 51 N) + 67 Irrecusable = 212 Total.
"Team Status Pre-Ejection" (Winning-Losing-Tied [W-L-T] Record prior to Ejection): 52-117-43.
"Team Status Post-Ejection" (Game Record [W-L]): 84-128. (Delta: 32-11; WPCT: .744).

By Inning: 7 (44), 8 (41), 5 (30), 9 (22), 6 (21), 3 (20), 4 (13), 2 (11), 1 (5), Extras (5).
By Reason: Balls/Strikes (96), Check Swing (29), Throwing At (23), Replay Review (14).
By Day of Week: Sunday (48), Wed (35), Sat (32), Tuesday (29), Friday (27), Thurs (22), Mon (19).

Umpire Instant Replay Review Sabermetrics
Replay Reviews & Decisions Rendered: 1335, .512 RAP (683/1335).
"Team Most Used" (Made use of Replay Review most often): TB 65; TOR 61; BOS, PIT 58; CHC 57.
"Team Least Used" (Least use of Replay): CLE 30; MIL 31; DET, MIA 32; NYY, OAK 34; BAL, CIN 35.
"Most successful team in review" (Team with highest TSP): Seattle Mariners - .692 (27/39).
"Least successful team in review" (Team with lowest TSP): Texas Rangers - .291 (16/55).
"Umpire most questioned" (Most Replay Reviews): Jordan Baker 16; CB Bucknor 15.
"Crew most questioned" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Reviews): Hirschbeck 83; Meals 71.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): Adam Hamari - .778 in 14/18.
"Ump of greatest overturn" (Umpire with lowest RAP): Ben May - .143 in 12/14.

Actual data (Raw Data for Replay Reviews):
- By Inning: 7 (179), 8 (166), 5 (150), 1 (149), 6 (139), 9 (132), 3 (129), 2 (115), 4 (113), Extras (x)...
- By Reason: Safe/Out (1057), HR/Not HR (111), HBP/Foul (66), HP Collision (24), Fair/Foul (19).
- By Day of Week: Fri (229), Sun (219), Sat (216), Wed (215), Tues (192), Mon (146), Thurs (118).


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