Friday, June 2, 2017

UEFL's MLB Umpire Sabermetrics - May 2017

The May edition of UEFL's MLB Umpire Sabermetrics for the 2017 regular season is now available and features 56 ejections and 443 Replay Reviews through 790 games played.

Ejections and replays are both projected to decrease year-over-year, based on current rates.

New to the Sabermetrics update are two sections. First, Most & Least Accurate Umpires, Replay Review contains the top and bottom of the Replay Review table ordinarily found in the "Read More" detailed section of the monthly report. Second, Summary, Vince's Plate Performers contains the year-to-date leaderboard for the Vince's Plate Performers page.

Summary, Ejections.
>> 56 Total Regular Season Ejections through May 31, 2017 (on pace for 172 ejections this season).
>> Umpires were 61.4% accurate on calls associated with ejection.
>> The Blue Jays, Rays, A's, Yankees & Red Sox led the AL in ejections. The Marlins led the NL.
>> Managers Don Mattingly (Marlins) and John Gibbons (Blue Jays) led all managers in ejections.
>> Umpires Bill Welke led all umpires in ejections.
>> Chief Tom Hallion's crew led all umpire crews in ejections.
>> Most ejections occurred in the 7th inning; Ejections from 7th and on comprised 52% of all tosses.
>> Most ejections occurred on Saturdays. Weekend series (Fri-Sun) featured 52% of all heave-ho's.
>> The most common reason for ejection was Balls/Strikes, followed by Throwing At.
>> All else equal, a team tied at the time of ejection ended up winning the game 62.5% of the time.

Summary, Replay Reviews.
>> 443 Total Replay Reviews, of which calls were affirmed 53.1% of the time (46.9% overturned).
>> The Tampa Bay Rays used replay more than any other team, but were fairly unsuccessful.
>> The Kansas City Royals were the League's most successful team in review (10-for-13).
>> The Oakland A's experienced fewer reviews than any other team, and were not too successful.
>> The Athletics were the worst MLB team in terms of Replay success (2-of-9).
>> Umpire Tim Timmons had a league-leading 12 calls reviewed, and was average in outcome.
>> Mike Winters' crew led all of baseball in replay activity, and performed at league average.
>> Umpire Alfonso Marquez led in accuracy with all of his calls affirmed by replay (9/9).
>> Umpire Gerry Davis experienced the highest rate of his calls being overturned by replay (0/3).
>> The 7th inning had more reviews than any other inning. 46% of all reviews occurred from 7th-on.
>> Most reviews occurred on Sundays; Weekend series (Fri-Sun) featured 49% of all replays.
>> The most common reason for review was Out/Safe (Force - 1st) followed by Out/Safe (Tag - In).

Most & Least Accurate Umpires, Replay Review (sorted by Review Affirmation Percentage [RAP]).
1. Alfonso Marquez, Vic Carapazza, Bill Welke, Dale Scott - 100% RAP.
5. Joe West - 87.5% RAP.
6. Chris Guccione - 83.3% RAP.
7. Marty Foster, Mike Everitt - 80.0% RAP.
9. Alan Porter - 77.8% RAP.
10. Hoye, Hamari, T Gibson, Baker - 75.0% RAP.
69. Iassogna, Hallion, Drake, Bellino - 20.0% RAP.
73. Sam Holbrook - 16.7% RAP.
74. Gerry Davis, Nic Lentz, Ben May - 0% RAP.

Summary, Vince's Plate Performers.
Throughout the season, contributor Vince will track the best and worst daily plate performances. Year-to-Date, here is the Vince's Plate Performers leaderboard:
>> Best: Will Little has appeared on the "Best" list 3 times, more often than any other umpire.
>> Worst: Ron Kulpa has appeared on the "Worst" list 3 times, more often than any other umpire.

For detailed sabermetric analysis of MLB umpire ejections and instant replay review outcomes, including a Replay Review umpire leaderboard, follow the "read more" link below.
Total Games Played Through May 31, 2017: 790 of 2430 (32.5% of the season has been played).

Umpire Ejection Sabermetrics
Ejections: 56. (Compare to 65 through May 2016). Pace is 172 ejections / 2430 games played.
"Team most active" (Team with most Ejections): MIA 5; TOR, TB, OAK, NYY, BOS 4.
"Team least active" (Team with least Ejections): (8 Tied) 1.
"Manager ejections leader" (Most Ejections): Don Mattingly 4; John Gibbons 3; (7 Tied) 2.
"Player ejections leader": (21 Tied) 1.
"Umpire leader" (Most Ejections): Bill Welke 5; Barry, Cuzzi, Fletcher, Porter, Torres 3.
"Crew most active" (Crew with most Ejections): Hallion 8; Everitt 6; Emmel 5; West, Marquez 4.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest QOC): Alan Porter (2 Y / 0 N + 1 U = 1.000 QOCY).
"Overall QOC percentage" (Overall QOC Y value): .614 (27 Y / 17 N) + 12 Irrecusable = 56 Total.
"Team Status Pre-Ejection" (Winning-Losing-Tied [W-L-T] Record prior to Ejection): 17-31-8.
"Team Status Post-Ejection" (Game Record [W-L]): 22-34. (Delta: 5-3; WPCT: .625).

By Inning: 7 (11); 8 (10); 9 (8); 5 (7); 6 (5); 3 (5); 1 (5); 2 (3); 4 (2); Extras (0).
By Reason: Balls/Strikes (27); Throwing At (6); Balk, Check Swing, Fighting (4); Fair/Foul (2).
By Day of Week: Sat (11); Sun (10); Mon (9); Wed (8); Fri (8); Tues (6); Thurs (4).

Umpire Instant Replay Review Sabermetrics
Replay Reviews & Decisions Rendered: 443, .508 RAP (225/443). On pace for 1363 replays.
"Team Most Used" (Used Replay Review most often): TB 28; TEX 24; ATL, SD 20; TOR 19; STL 18.
"Team Least Used" (Least use of Replay): OAK 9; MIN, WAS 10; CWS, MIA, MIL 11.
"Most successful team in review" (Team with highest TSP): Royals - .769 (10/13).
"Least successful team in review" (Team with lowest TSP): A's - .222 (2/9).
"Umpire most questioned" (Most Replay Reviews): Tim Timmons 12; Tumpane 11; Conroy/Rackley 10.
"Crew most questioned" (Most Reviewed Crew): Mike Winters 33; Ted Barrett 30; Meals/Nelson 26.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): Alfonso Marquez - 1.000 (9 Y in 9 Total).
"Ump of greatest overturn" (Umpire with lowest RAP): Gerry Davis - .000 (0 Y in 3 Total).

Actual data (Raw Data for Replay Reviews):
- By Inning: 7 (77); 8 (64); 9 (46), 4 (46); 1 (41); 5 (40); 3 (39), 6 (39); 2 (36); Extras (15).
- By Reason: Out/Safe [Force - 1B] (116); Out/Safe [Tag - Into Base] (88); Out/Safe [Tag - SB] (38); Out/Safe [Pulled Foot] (33); HBP/No HBP (20); Out/Safe [Tag - Pickoff] (19), HR/In Play (19); Slide INT (18).
- By Day of Week: Sun (84), Tues (72); Fri (67); Sat (66); Thurs (55); Wed (54); Mon (45).

Umpire Replay Review Leaderboard
Umpire Accuracy in Replay Reviews (Ranked by Review Affirmation Percentage [RAP])

100.0%Marquez, Alfonso1
100.0%Carapazza, Vic1
100.0%Welke, Bill1
100.0%Scott, Dale1
87.5%West, Joe5
83.3%Guccione, Chris6
80.0%Foster, Marty7
80.0%Everitt, Mike7
77.8%Porter, Alan9
75.0%Hoye, James10
75.0%Hamari, Adam10
75.0%Gibson, Tripp10
75.0%Baker, Jordan10
71.4%Wolcott, Quinn14
71.4%Hudson, Marvin14
71.4%Cuzzi, Phil14
66.7%Nelson, Jeff17
66.7%Nauert, Paul17
66.7%Miller, Bill17
66.7%Culbreth, Fieldin17
66.7%Cederstrom, Gary17
66.7%Knight, Brian17
66.7%Barry, Scott17
63.6%Tumpane, John24
60.0%Rackley, Dave25
60.0%Kellogg, Jeff25
60.0%Fagan, Clint25
60.0%Barrett, Ted25
57.1%Wegner, Mark29
57.1%Gibson, Greg29
55.6%Scheurwater, Stu31
55.6%Eddings, Doug31
50.0%Timmons, Tim33
50.0%Hernandez, Angel33
50.0%Dreckman, Bruce33
50.0%Reynolds, Jim33
50.0%Little, Will33
50.0%Barksdale, Lance33
50.0%Wendelstedt, Hunter33
50.0%Torres, Carlos33
50.0%Randazzo, Tony33
50.0%Layne, Jerry33
50.0%Estabrook, Mike33
50.0%Emmel, Paul33
50.0%Cooper, Eric33
42.9%Vanover, Larry46
42.9%Meals, Jerry46
42.9%Carlson, Mark46
42.9%Blaser, Cory46
40.0%Conroy, Chris50
40.0%Wolf, Jim50
40.0%Gorman, Brian50
33.3%Winters, Mike53
33.3%Tichenor, Todd53
33.3%Ripperger, Mark53
33.3%Morales, Gabe53
33.3%Gonzalez, Manny53
33.3%Danley, Kerwin53
33.3%Basner, Toby53
28.6%Woodring, Tom60
28.6%Muchlinski, Mike60
25.0%Reyburn, DJ62
25.0%O'Nora, Brian62
25.0%Fletcher, Andy62
25.0%DiMuro, Mike62
25.0%Diaz, Laz62
25.0%Bucknor, CB62
25.0%Barrett, Lance62
20.0%Iassogna, Dan69
20.0%Hallion, Tom69
20.0%Drake, Rob69
20.0%Bellino, Dan69
16.7%Holbrook, Sam73
0.0%May, Ben74
0.0%Davis, Gerry74
0.0%Lentz, Nic74


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