Monday, June 18, 2018

Ejected Duffy Makes it Personal in KC vs Tumpane Claim

Royals pitcher Danny Duffy, ejected for arguing balls and strikes on Sunday, took to the media to call out home plate umpire John Tumpane, stating his belief that Tumpane's call selection disproportionately harms Kansas City.
I’m personally tired of getting punked by Tumpane. I think we all are. And I think it needs to be looked at. I’m not saying there’s bias there but I’m sure it will go back to whoever it needs to go back to.
For what it's worth, Duffy was ejected arguing a series of correctly-ruled pitches during Sunday's game.
Related PostMLB Ejections 063-64 - John Tumpane (3-4; KC x2)

Royals' Duffy has called out Tumpane.
Of Tumpane's last 10 ejections, five have featured members of the Royals, approaching numbers resembling Toronto's purported feud with Vic Carapazza, when the Blue Jays at one point comprised six of eight consecutive Carapazza ejections.

The Quality of Correctness associated with all five of these Tumpane-KC ejections is QOCY (QOC% = 100%).

Gil's Call: The accuracy of a statement like Duffy's is difficult to evaluate—the numbers indicate Tumpane's strike zone Sunday did not favor either team at a statistically significant level (+1 HOU...if an odd number of samples are given, one team must come out ahead by a minimum of one; +1 is statistically a draw)—and not even the Moustakas play at home plate proved conclusive on video review.

However, thanks to our Replay Review database, there is one statement Duffy made that can be better analyzed for its accuracy: "We get punked by replay all the time."
Related PageMLB Umpire Replay Review Statistics and Sabermetrics

KC leads the league in Replay TSP.
Other than belying Duffy's extensive vocabulary, the assertion that Kansas City is disproportionately placed at a disadvantage by Replay Review is categorically false by a significant margin.

Entering Sunday, Kansas City was the most successful team in the league at replay, with video coordinator Billy Duplissea helping guide his club to an MLB-best 17 overturned calls out of 20 chances (.850 TSP) entering Sunday.

Now, that statline reads 17-of-21 (.810 TSP), which is still tops in baseball ahead of second-place San Francisco (13-of-17, .765 TSP). Actually, Kansas City is so good at not getting "punked by replay all the time" that Duplissea is closing in on his third-straight season of navigating the Royals to the top spot in Replay Review success.

The conclusion here—two-plus seasons of first place in Replay notwithstanding—is that Kansas City, definitively, does not "get punked by replay all the time."

Alas, it appears this is just another case of umpire scapegoating and sour grapes, which ultimately means nothing and has no real merit.

When Todd Frazier did it in May, he masked a hitting slump that featured a .250 batting average over the five games pre-complaint, with an umpire accuracy of 95.3% relative to called strikes. In the four games following his complaint, Frazier produced a .125 average while umpires were 97.7% accurate.
Related PostTodd Frazier - "These Umpires Have Got to Get Better" (5/3/18).
Related PostAnalysis - Catching Up With Todd Frazier 5 Days Later (5/7/18).

When Ian Kinsler did it to Angel Hernandez in 2017, he masked an 0-for-2 performance and another loss in a season of Detroit Tigers losses.
Related PostMLB Ejections 134-35 - Angel Hernandez (1-2; DET x2) (8/14/17).

When Detroit did it to Quinn Wolcott in September, it concerned correctly ruled pitches and another Detroit loss.
Related PostMLB Ejections 172-173 - Quinn Wolcott (McCann, Ausmus) (9/13/17).
Related PostDid Detroit Throw at Umpire Wolcott? A Visual Analysis (9/14/17).

For more on scapegoating and why players or coaches may turn to umpire abuse, visit the following link:
Related PostLet's Talk - Mental Health in an Abusive Environment (10/10/17).

So what could Duffy possibly be scapegoating the umpires for this time around?
Well, the Royals are on a six-game losing streak and hold the second-worst win-loss record in baseball.


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