MLB's new Instant Replay Review process is sabermetrics personified: With 47 reviews through 101 games played, we can expect to see over 1,000 more Replay Reviews by Game 162 (or 2430, cumulatively). Such a relatively large data set will, in time, lend itself to extensive strategic analysis not seen with ejections, which often take five full seasons to accumulate to such a sample size. As the numbers and trends begin to form (albeit in a highly preliminary stage),
Close Call Sports and the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League provides the following Replay Review Sabermetrics primer. First, some key terms:
Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP): The percent of Replay Reviews in which an umpire's call is confirmed or upheld (stands). For instance, a RAP of .750 for n=4 indicates that three calls were affirmed (confirmed/stands) via Replay Review while the other was reversed (overturned). A higher figure (trending towards 1.000) indicates greater calling accuracy; a lower figure (trending towards .000) indicates a greater real-time call error rate.
Also known as QOC (Quality of Correctness).
Replay Percentage of Success (RPS): The percent of Replay Reviews in which a ball club and/or its Manager receives an overturned call that benefits the team. Includes both Crew Chief Reviews (initiated by the umpires) and Manager's Challenges (initiated by the teams). For instance, RPS of .333 for n=3 indicates that two calls were affirmed (confirmed/stands) via Replay Review while the other was reversed (overturned). Alternatively, 1.000 - RAP = RPS.
Manager's Challenge Success Percentage (CSP): A subset of RPS, this statistic considers just those Replay Reviews that were effected as the result of a Manager's Challenge. For both RPS and CSP, a higher number (1.000) indicates greater success in the Replay Review process; a lower figure (.000) indicates less successful outcomes.
With Week 1 of the MLB Regular Season in the books, the UEFL recaps professional baseball's "this time it counts" living experiment with Instant Replay Reviews.
Bearing in mind that with n=47, our sample size is relatively small and unreliable, here are the "early returns" numbers:
Key bullet points:
"Teams Most Used" (Made use of Replay Review most often):
Yankees & Athletics - 4
"Manager's Challenge Leaders" (Most challenges filed):
Rick Renteria, Brad Ausmus, Joe Maddon - 3.
"Most successful Manager" (Manager with highest CSP):
Fredi Gonzalez - 1.000 in 2/2.
"Least successful Manager" (Manager with lowest CSP):
Melvin, Gibbons & Williams - .000 in 0/2.
"Umpire most questioned" (Ump with most Replay Reviews):
Bob Davidson & Dana DeMuth - 3.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP):
Jerry Layne & Jim Wolf - 1.000 in 2/2.
"Umpire of greatest overturn %" (Umpire with lowest RAP):
Chris Conroy - .000 in 0/2.
"Overall affirmation or QOC percentage" (Overall RAP):
.660 (31/47 Affirmed Replay Reviews).
Team Status Pre-Review (Winning or Losing prior to review [Win-Loss-Tied]): 17-18-12.
Team Status Post-Review (Won or Lost the game [Wins-Losses]): 21-26. (Delta: 4-8; WPCT: .333).*
*This .333 winning percentage resembles the mid-.330s Win % associated with post-ejections.
Actual data: