Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Major League Umpiring Debut: Seth Buckminster (67)

Umpire Seth Buckminster made his MLB debut during the Angels-Mariners game April 8 in Seattle. Buckminster joined crew chief Mike Winters' crew, serving as Tuesday's third base umpire alongside 2B Umpire Andy Fletcher, 1B Umpire Winters and home plate umpire Mike Muchlinski.

Photo: George Tuley
Buckminster is on the International League umpire roster for the 2014 season, which is his third year in Triple-A, having started his Minor League umpiring career in 2006, working the Arizona, Appalachian, South Atlantic, Florida Instructional, California, Arizona Instructional and Texas Leagues before his promotion to AAA. He worked the 2012 Arizona Fall League and was selected to that year's Arizona Fall League Championship Game.

Buckminster resides in Fort Worth, Texas and wears the sleeve uniform number 67. The 6-foot-4, 210-pound Buckminster, who makes his MLB debut at the age of 32, ejected Mariners Manager Eric Wedge on March 27 for arguing a ball three call (QOC = Irrecusable).

MLB Instant Replay Review 048: Mike Estabrook (01)

Instant Replay Review confirmed HP Umpire Mike Estabrook's out call in the top of the 8th inning of the Astros-Blue Jays game. With one out and two on, Astros batter Dexter Fowler hit a 0-1 curveball from Blue Jays pitcher Brett Cecil on the ground back to Cecil, who threw to catcher Dioner Navarro as Astros baserunner R3 L.J. Hoes arrived at home plate. Upon Instant Replay Review as the result of a challenge by Astros Manager Bo Porter, Estabrook's ruling that Navarro tagged Hoes while Hoes was off his base was affirmed, the call was correct. At the time of the review, the Blue Jays were leading, 5-2. The Blue Jays ultimately won the contest, 5-2.

This is Mike Estabrook (83)'s first Instant Replay Review of 2014.
Mike Estabrook is now 1/1 (1.000 Affirmation Rate) in Instant Replay Reviews during 2014.
Crew Chief Jerry Layne's crew is now 4/6 (.667 Affirmation Rate) in Replay Reviews during 2014.

This is the 48th Instant Replay Review of the 2014 MLB Regular Season.
Astros Manager Bo Porter is now 0/1 (.000 Success) in Instant Replay Reviews during 2014.
Umpires are now 32/48 (.667 Affirmation Rate) in Instant Replay Reviews during the 2014 MLB season.

Wrap: Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 4/8/14
Video: Play stands; Hoe is confirmed out on play at the plate following Instant Replay Review (TOR)

Michael, Son of John Hirschbeck, Passes Away at 27

MLB Umpire John Hirschbeck's son Michael died of unknown causes, the Associated Press announced Tuesday.

According to Poland, Ohio's NBC-WFMJ, Michael suffered from an inherited neurological condition, a rare brain disease known as adrenoleukodystrophy (ALD).

Hirschbeck, who was scheduled to work the San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Indians interleague series in Ohio instead flew home to be with his family. MiLB's John Tumpane was called up to fill in for the bereaved Hirschbeck, who now has lost his second child in the past 20 years.

In 1993, Hirschbeck's 8-year-old son John Drew died of ALD.

Said, family friend and United Way President Bob Hannon, "Anytime you lose a child it's devastating, but now John and [wife] Denise have lost two children. I think there's no question there will be a lot of people that will be there for the family and help them get through this."

After missing the entire 2008 season following back surgery, Hirschbeck was diagnosed with testicular cancer in 2009, resulting in more time on umpiring's Injured List. He returned to work the 2010 season before the cancer returned ahead of 2012: Hirschbeck announced he was once again cancer-free in August 2012 and returned to baseball in 2013.

His 2014 crew includes Bob Davidson, Brian O'Nora and James Hoye.

Monday, April 7, 2014

Instant Replay Review Statistics 101: Week 1 Sabermetrics

MLB's new Instant Replay Review process is sabermetrics personified: With 47 reviews through 101 games played, we can expect to see over 1,000 more Replay Reviews by Game 162 (or 2430, cumulatively). Such a relatively large data set will, in time, lend itself to extensive strategic analysis not seen with ejections, which often take five full seasons to accumulate to such a sample size. As the numbers and trends begin to form (albeit in a highly preliminary stage), Close Call Sports and the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League provides the following Replay Review Sabermetrics primer. First, some key terms:

Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP): The percent of Replay Reviews in which an umpire's call is confirmed or upheld (stands). For instance, a RAP of .750 for n=4 indicates that three calls were affirmed (confirmed/stands) via Replay Review while the other was reversed (overturned). A higher figure (trending towards 1.000) indicates greater calling accuracy; a lower figure (trending towards .000) indicates a greater real-time call error rate. Also known as QOC (Quality of Correctness).

Replay Percentage of Success (RPS): The percent of Replay Reviews in which a ball club and/or its Manager receives an overturned call that benefits the team. Includes both Crew Chief Reviews (initiated by the umpires) and Manager's Challenges (initiated by the teams). For instance, RPS of .333 for n=3 indicates that two calls were affirmed (confirmed/stands) via Replay Review while the other was reversed (overturned). Alternatively, 1.000 - RAP = RPS.

Manager's Challenge Success Percentage (CSP): A subset of RPS, this statistic considers just those Replay Reviews that were effected as the result of a Manager's Challenge. For both RPS and CSP, a higher number (1.000) indicates greater success in the Replay Review process; a lower figure (.000) indicates less successful outcomes.

With Week 1 of the MLB Regular Season in the books, the UEFL recaps professional baseball's "this time it counts" living experiment with Instant Replay Reviews. Bearing in mind that with n=47, our sample size is relatively small and unreliable, here are the "early returns" numbers:

Key bullet points:
"Teams Most Used" (Made use of Replay Review most often): Yankees & Athletics - 4
"Manager's Challenge Leaders" (Most challenges filed): Rick Renteria, Brad Ausmus, Joe Maddon - 3.
"Most successful Manager" (Manager with highest CSP): Fredi Gonzalez - 1.000 in 2/2.
"Least successful Manager" (Manager with lowest CSP): Melvin, Gibbons & Williams - .000 in 0/2.
"Umpire most questioned" (Ump with most Replay Reviews): Bob Davidson & Dana DeMuth - 3.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): Jerry Layne & Jim Wolf - 1.000 in 2/2.
"Umpire of greatest overturn %" (Umpire with lowest RAP): Chris Conroy - .000 in 0/2.
"Overall affirmation or QOC percentage" (Overall RAP): .660 (31/47 Affirmed Replay Reviews).
Team Status Pre-Review (Winning or Losing prior to review [Win-Loss-Tied]): 17-18-12.
Team Status Post-Review (Won or Lost the game [Wins-Losses]): 21-26. (Delta: 4-8; WPCT: .333).*
*This .333 winning percentage resembles the mid-.330s Win % associated with post-ejections.

Actual data:

MLB Instant Replay Review 047: Quinn Wolcott (01)

Instant Replay Review upheld 1B Umpire Quinn Wolcott's out call in the top of the 8th inning of the Rays-Royals game. With two out and none on, Rays batter Will Myers hit a 1-0 change up from Royals pitcher Jason Vargas to second baseman Danny Valencia, who threw to first baseman Eric Hosmer as Myers arrived at first base. Upon Instant Replay Review as the result of a challenge by Rays Manager Joe Maddon, Wolcott's ruling that Hosmer caught the ball and tagged first base prior to Myers' touch arrival was affirmed, the call was correct. At the time of the review, the Royals were leading, 4-0. The Royals ultimately won the contest, 4-2.

This is Quinn Wolcott (81)'s first Instant Replay Review of 2014.
Quinn Wolcott is now 1/1 (1.000 Affirmation Rate) in Instant Replay Reviews during 2014.
Crew Chief Gerry Davis' crew is now 2/2 (1.000 Affirmation Rate) in Replay Reviews during 2014.
Listed Replay Official Crew Chiefs: Larry Vanover, Jeff Kellogg.

This is the 47th Instant Replay Review of the 2014 MLB Regular Season.
Rays Manager Joe Maddon is now 2/3 (.667 Success) in Instant Replay Reviews during 2014.
Umpires are now 31/47 (.660 Affirmation Rate) in Instant Replay Reviews during the 2014 MLB season.

Wrap: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals, 4/7/14
Video: Play stands; Bang-bang play at first is reviewed and kept as an inning-ending groundout (TB)

MLB Instant Replay Review 046: Jordan Baker (01)

Instant Replay Review upheld 2B Umpire Jordan Baker's safe call in the bottom of the 1st inning of the Rangers-Red Sox game. With one out and one on, Red Sox batter David Ortiz hit a 0-0 fastball from Rangers pitcher Tanner Scheppers to second baseman Donnie Murphy, who threw to shortstop Elvis Andrus as Red Sox baserunner R1 Daniel Nava arrived at second base. Upon Instant Replay Review as the result of a challenge by Rangers Manager Ron Washington, Baker's ruling that Andrus did not catch or possess the ball and legally tag second base prior to Nava's arrival was affirmed, the call was correct. At the time of the review, the contest was tied, 0-0. The Red Sox ultimately won the contest, 5-1.

This is Jordan Baker (71)'s first Instant Replay Review of 2014.
Jordan Baker is now 1/1 (1.000 Affirmation Rate) in Instant Replay Reviews during 2014.
Crew Chief Jerry Meals' crew is now 2/4 (.500 Affirmation Rate) in Replay Reviews during 2014.
Listed Replay Official Crew Chiefs: Larry Vanover, Jeff Kellogg.

This is the 46th Instant Replay Review of the 2014 MLB Regular Season.
Rangers Manager Ron Washington is now 1/2 (.500 Success) in Instant Replay Reviews during 2014.
Umpires are now 30/46 (.652 Affirmation Rate) in Instant Replay Reviews during the 2014 MLB season.

Wrap: Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox, 4/7/14
Video: Play stands; Rangers are denied request for an out due to transfer call in the first inning (TEX)

MLB Instant Replay Review 045: Vic Carapazza (01)

Instant Replay Review upheld 1B Umpire Vic Carapazza's foul ball (no HR) call in the top of the 3rd inning of the Athletics-Twins game. With one out and none on, A's batter Jed Lowrie hit a 3-2 changeup from Twins pitcher Kevin Correia to deep right field and past the foul pole. Upon Instant Replay Review as the result of a request by A's Manager Bob Melvin and initiation by crew chief Bill Miller, Carapazza's ruling that the ball left the playing field in foul territory (to the right of the foul pole) was affirmed, the call was correct. At the time of the review, the A's were leading, 2-1. The A's ultimately won the contest, 8-3.

This is Vic Carapazza (19)'s first Instant Replay Review of 2014.
Vic Carapazza is now 1/1 (1.000 Affirmation Rate) in Instant Replay Reviews during 2014.
Crew Chief Bill Miller's crew is now 1/1 (1.000 Affirmation Rate) in Replay Reviews during 2014.
Listed Replay Official Crew Chiefs: Larry Vanover, Jeff Kellogg.

This is the 45th Instant Replay Review of the 2014 MLB Regular Season.
Athletics Manager Bob Melvin is now 0/4 (.000 Success) in Instant Replay Challenges/Reviews during 2014.
Umpires are now 29/45 (.644 Affirmation Rate) in Instant Replay Reviews during the 2014 MLB season.

Wrap: Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins, 4/7/14
Video: Play stands; Foul ball call remains after a four-minute review of foul pole, shadows (OAK)

Sunday, April 6, 2014

MLB Instant Replay Review 044: Jim Reynolds (01)

Instant Replay Review confirmed 1B Umpire Jim Reynolds' out call in the bottom of the 4th inning of the Mariners-Athletics game. With one out and none on, Athletics batter Sam Fuld hit a 0-1 fastball from Mariners pitcher Erasmo Ramirez on a fly ball to center fielder Abraham Almonte, deflected to shortstop Brad Miller, who threw to first baseman Justim Smoak as Fuld dove back into first base after rounding the bag. Upon Instant Replay Review as the result of a challenge by Athletics Manager Bob Melvin, Reynolds' ruling that Smoak successfully tagged Fuld while he was off his base was affirmed, the call was correct. At the time of the review, the contest was tied, 3-3. The Athletics ultimately won the contest, 6-3.

This is Jim Reynolds (77)'s first Instant Replay Review of 2014.
Jim Reynolds is now 1/1 (1.000 Affirmation Rate) in Instant Replay Reviews during 2014.
Crew Chief Fieldin Culbreth's crew is now 3/3 (1.000 Affirmation Rate) in Replay Reviews during 2014.
Listed Replay Official Crew Chiefs: Larry Vanover, Jeff Kellogg.

This is the 44th Instant Replay Review of the 2014 MLB Regular Season.
Athletics Manager Bob Melvin is now 0/3 (.000 Success) in Instant Replay Challenges/Reviews during 2014.
Umpires are now 28/44 (.636 Affirmation Rate) in Instant Replay Reviews during the 2014 MLB season.

Wrap: Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics, 4/6/14
Video: Play stands; Fuld's out trying to stretch a single is confirmed after unsuccessful challenge (OAK)

MLB Instant Replay 043: Mike Muchlinski (01)

Instant Replay Review overturned 1B Umpire Mike Muchlinski's out call in the bottom of the 1st inning of the Diamondbacks-Rockies game. With none out and none on, Rockies batter Charlie Blackmon hit a 1-2 slider from Diamondbacks pitcher Wade Miley on the ground to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who threw to Miley as Blackmon (and Miley) arrived at first base. Upon Instant Replay Review as the result of a challenge by Rockies Manager Walt Weiss, Muchlinski's ruling that Miley caught the ball and tagged first base ahead of Blackmon's sliding arrival was reversed, the call was incorrect. At the time of the review, the contest was tied, 0-0. The Diamondbacks ultimately won the contest, 5-3.

This is Mike Muchlinski (76)'s first Instant Replay Review of 2014.
Mike Muchlinski is now 0/1 (.000 Affirmation Rate) in Instant Replay Reviews during 2014.
Crew Chief Mike Winters' crew is now 2/4 (.500 Affirmation Rate) in Replay Reviews during 2014.
Listed Replay Official Crew Chiefs: Larry Vanover, Jeff Kellogg.

This is the 43rd Instant Replay Review of the 2014 MLB Regular Season.
Rockies Manager Walt Weiss is now 1/3 (.333 Success) in Instant Replay Challenges/Reviews during 2014.
Umpires are now 27/43 (.628 Affirmation Rate) in Instant Replay Reviews during the 2014 MLB season.

Wrap: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies, 4/6/14
Video: Play overturned; Replay overturns first base call out of the gate (COL)

MLB Instant Replay Review 042: CB Bucknor (01)

Instant Replay Review confirmed 1B Umpire CB Bucknor's out call in the top of the 5th inning of the Phillies-Cubs game. With none out and two on, Phillies batter Chase Utley hit a 1-1 changeup from Cubs pitcher Carlos Villanueva back to Villanueva, to shortstop Starlin Castro, who threw to first baseman Anthony Rizzo as Utley arrived at first base. Upon Instant Replay Review as the result of a challenge by Phillies Manager Ryne Sanberg, Bucknor's ruling that Rizzo caught the ball and tagged first base prior to Utley's touch arrival was affirmed, the call was correct. At the time of the review, the Cubs were leading, 4-0. The Cubs ultimately won the contest, 8-3.

This is CB Bucknor (54)'s first Instant Replay Review of 2014.
CB Bucknor is now 1/1 (1.000 Affirmation Rate) in Instant Replay Reviews during 2014.
Crew Chief Dale Scott's crew is now 1/2 (.500 Affirmation Rate) in Replay Reviews during 2014.
Listed Replay Official Crew Chiefs: Larry Vanover, Jeff Kellogg.

This is the 42nd Instant Replay Review of the 2014 MLB Regular Season.
Phillies Manager Ryne Sandberg is now 0/1 (.000 Success) in Instant Replay Challenges/Reviews during 2014.
Umpires are now 27/42 (.643 Affirmation Rate) in Instant Replay Reviews during the 2014 MLB season.

Wrap: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs, 4/6/14
Video: Play stands; Bucknor's punch out at first base is confirmed after Phils' challenge (PHI)