Monday, October 28, 2013

Forum: 2013 MLB World Series

As the 2013 World Series gets underway, we again open the umpire forum to discussion. Notes include home plate umpire performance according to pitch f/x and UEFL Rules 6-2-b-a (horizontal bound, "Kulpa Rule") and 6-2-b-b (vertical strike zone, "Miller Rule"). Plays include significant plays, if such plays occur. For future games, notes include home plate umpire probables. Call +/- also included/highlighted.

- 10/23, STL@BOS 1, HP Umpire John Hirschbeck: pfx (91/96 Balls, 48/56 Strikes = 139/152 = 91.4%) +1 STL.
- 10/24, STL@BOS 2, HP Umpire Mark Wegner: pfx (112/113 Balls, 45/50 Strikes = 157/163 = 96.3%) +0 NU.

- 10/26, BOS@STL 3, HP Umpire Dana DeMuth: pfx (110/114 Balls, 44/56 Strikes = 154/170 = 90.6%) +2 STL.
- 10/27, BOS@STL 4, HP Umpire Paul Emmel: pfx (111/113 Balls, 46/58 Strikes = 157/171 = 91.8%) +0 NU.
- 10/28, BOS@STL 5, HP Umpire Bill Miller: pfx (74/74 Balls, 35/44 Strikes = 109/118 = 92.4%) +0 NU.

- 10/30, STL@BOS 6, HP Umpire Jim Joyce: pfx (99/101 Balls, 45/52 Strikes = 144/153 = 94.1%) +2 BOS.
Series Complete: World Series Red Sox defeat Cardinals (4-2), net advantage St. Louis, +1 pitch (lost series)

Plays
- STL@BOS, WS 1: 2B Umpire Dana DeMuth overturns his erroneous out call; JH: "Our job is to get it right"
- STL@BOS, WS 1: 3B Umpire Paul Emmel rules Robinson safe at third after fielding error in left
- STL@BOS, WS 1: 1B Umpire Mark Wegner rules Freese safe on attempted assist by RF Victorino
- STL@BOS, WS 2: 1B Umpire Dana DeMuth calls Descalso out at first on an off-balance throw by Drew
- BOS@STL, WS 3: 3B Umpire Jim Joyce calls obstruction, DeMuth awards Craig the walk-off score
- BOS@STL, WS 4: 1B Umpire Bill Miller rings up Kolton Wong on Uehara pick off to seal Game 4
- BOS@STL, WS 5: 1B Umpire Jim Joyce rules Kozma out at first as David Ortiz fields Lester's throw
- BOS@STL, WS 5: HP Umpire Bill Miller bangs out Ross on lunging tag by Yadier Molina
- STL@BOS, WS 6: 1B Umpire John Hirschbeck calls Pedroia safe on Michael Wacha's pickoff attempt
- STL@BOS, WS 6: HP Umpire Jim Joyce calls Gomes safe on Victorino's bases clearing double

56 comments :

Gil Imber said...

Well, game one is in the books. There should be two "significant plays" to discuss. One was the blown call by DeMuth, the other was a very close play at first correctly called by Wegner. A third close play perhaps worthy of consideration was the 9th inning play at first where Victorino almost threw out a runner on a 9-3 play.


To the naked eye, Hirschbeck called a very nice game.

Gil Imber said...

Half of Hirschbeck's 8 strike calls made outside the zone were because they had a 8-0 game half way through. Can't fault him there....

Gil Imber said...

The overturned call by DeMuth is precisely why Hirschbeck is the crew chief. He was decisive and all he cared about was getting the call right. Well done.

Gil Imber said...

My numbers have Hirscbeck as 140/152. I have him as 90/96 on balls and 50/56 on strikes. What are the 2 strikes that you have as incorrect and which ball call that I have incorrect do you have as correct? These are my results.


His missed strikes: (1 for Boston, 5 for St Louis)
Lester- Strike 1 on Batter ID 59 (7th inning)
Wainwright- Strike 1 on Batter ID 8 (1st inning)
Wainwright- Strike 2 on Batter ID 21 (2nd inning)
Axford- Strike 1 on Batter ID 48 (6th inning)
Axford- Strike 2 on Batter ID 49 (6th inning)
Martinez- Strike 1 on Batter ID 62 (8th inning)




His Missed Balls: (2 for Boston, 4 for St Louis)
Lester- Ball 1 on Batter ID 12 (2nd inning)
Lester- Ball 1 on Batter ID 13 (2nd inning)
Wainwright- Ball 2 on Batter ID 11 (1st inning)
Wainwright- Ball 2 on Batter ID 18 (2nd inning)
Wainwright- Ball 3 on Batter ID 19 (2nd inning)
Waiwright- Ball 1 o Batter ID 41 (5th inning)

Gil Imber said...

If you watch the Wegner's call in one of the slow motion replays, doesn't it look like he was about to call him out, and switched to safe just in time? Watch the stop and start of the right arm. That being said, the call was absolutely correct.

Gil Imber said...

Not sure what DeMuth was looking at on that play, but I'm glad all the umpires got together and got the call right. That's what you like to see. I love the sound bite from Hirschbeck, taking charge of the situation. That's why he's the crew chief.

Gil Imber said...

I am reading into the play but it looked like he did "too good" of a job using his eyes. He focused on the bag and listened for the catch. Once he heard the catch and saw that his foot was on the bag he started to look for possession but the ball was already coming out of his glove. He then used the theory that if the ball drops straight down it fell out of the glove on its own - but if the ball falls out "backward" he must have been pulling the ball out and therefore he had possession. He then ruled him out. Usually that type of mistake comes from being too close to the play but he looked like he was a good distance from the bag.
I think he made the mistake because he thought the play / catch was going to be easy so he lacked a bit of focus and then made his call too quickly before letting the "whole" play sink in.
On a side note - I think everyone in this situation behaved admirably! The player - asked his question respectfully then left the field. The manager - came out and spoke with the umpire instead of just getting himself dumped. The umpires - gathered every umpire on the whole field together to make the call. The crew-chief - took responsibility for dealing with / explaining to the other manager. I hope I handle my next situation this smoothly!!!

Gil Imber said...

From a laypersons viewpoint it's hard to understand what DeMuth was (or wasn't) looking at, but as an umpire who works three and four man regularly I can understand what happened on that play. If you watch the video closely you can see that DeMuth is focusing on the base and making sure that the 2B's foot is in contact with the base. Right or wrong, he isn't focusing on making sure the ball is caught. When he starts to look up at the glove & ball it's already off the glove and ricocheting away and the 2B's hand is making the natural motion associated with transferring the ball to throw. I would bet he would tell you that instinctively he thought and ruled that it must be on the transfer as it was an all-around clean and straight forward play up until that point.


I don't know if I am articulating myself very well, but based on my experience this seems likely.

Gil Imber said...

I like it when you show the % of accuracy. You didnt do that with Hirschbeck's numbers

Gil Imber said...

Steve, umpires do not make calls based in the score .

Gil Imber said...

Math

Gil Imber said...

I thought the sw thing.

Gil Imber said...

Its about a 91% accuracy.

Gil Imber said...

In my opinion Wegner has been world's better than Hirschbeck last night. I really think Mark gets undervalued. Congratulations on his first WS.

Gil Imber said...

Riiiiiiight......

Gil Imber said...

Not sure how practical this would have been, but a few steps away from a play like this make a world of difference in how you perceive it. Denkinger ('85 WS kicked call) always said he was too close to the play. I wonder if Demuth would agree on his.

Gil Imber said...

This has been one of DeMuth's worst games ever in Game 3 of the World Series.... I mean ridiculously inconsistent, so much so that even Tim McCarver who usually complements umpires has been left perplexed.

Gil Imber said...

Agreed...haven't seen the numbers yet, but he has looked terrible (i.e. the freeze AB in the 5th- totally all over the place)...really uncharacteristic for DeMuth.

Gil Imber said...

Maybe some of the DeMuth slappies on the site will finally wake-up and see his best days are WAY behind him.

Gil Imber said...

It's always fun to watch Dana DeMuth behind the plate! I think he has very good mechanics. And his strike 3 call is really a stand-out.

Gil Imber said...

He's great...if you don't give a shit about accuracy. All hat, no cattle.

Gil Imber said...

What a call to end Game 3. It was the correct call, but I do not recall ever seeing a call like that ending a game. Cannot believe the Catcher tried for the double play when the worst case was 1st and 3rd with 2 outs

Gil Imber said...

Agreed. Excellent call and an inexplicable throw by Salty.

Gil Imber said...

Amazing finish tonight!! Nailed the call.

Gil Imber said...

I guess I expect Craig to be out the rest if the series. He wasn't ok walking off. But if that was his only contribution it reminds me of Kirk Gibson's HR in '88 when he could hardly walk and didn't appear again after his HR.

Gil Imber said...

ISU cyclone?

Gil Imber said...

I agree. I love how there was absolutely no hesitation on the part of Joyce and DeMuth when making the call. Textbook way to call obstruction.

Gil Imber said...

Yes but my question is who was doing the color? It couldn't have been Tim McCarver because he got a ruling correct and further more emphasized the correct part of the rule.
I am shocked, shocked I tell you to see Timmy and Joe get a rule like that correct.

Gil Imber said...

he had an injured foot/ankle he suffered in early september that was still bothering him during the world series so he probably re-aggravated it

Gil Imber said...

If I'm not mistaken, it was another play in the World Series involving the Red Sox (1975, Game 3, Ed Armbrister) that resulted in MLB eliminating intent from the obstruction rule. Or did that only apply to the batter/runner? In any case, Jim Joyce nailed the call and the Sox have literally thrown 2 games away in this World Series.

Gil Imber said...

Correct because McCarver said so? Runner tripped over himself. Forget that T Joyce's best days are behind him can we put to rest that Demuth is actually a good umpire, and his bias through three games does not make his abilitities the issue?

Gil Imber said...

there still brutal announcers

Gil Imber said...

haha nope.

Gil Imber said...

Hey even the worst baseball team of all time won 1 out of 4 times. If it were ESPN they'd be screaming because the play went against their beloved Sox.

Gil Imber said...

Bring on the robots

Gil Imber said...

From the press conference it is pretty clear that the call was right. However, it's a terrible rule if it is that black and white. No place for Middlebrooks to go and Craig could easily have avoided him if he had bothered to look.

Gil Imber said...

Joe kept saying that it was "interference" on Middlebrooks. McCarver was making up some BS about signals between Joyce and DeMuth, and even giving DeMuth credit for the call. I wouldn't say the words were quite descriptive of reality.

Gil Imber said...

I don't think it's "BS"--Joyce signaled obstruction like he was supposed to, and Demuth saw the signal. That fits the definition of there being "signals between them".

Gil Imber said...

Yeah the downside is that his zone is low and outside. And the consistency wasn't there.

Gil Imber said...

Now I understand why Hirschbeck is crew chief

Gil Imber said...

I laid on as much sarcasm as I could in text. I am just very happy to hear Tim is retiring, I almost have to put the game on mute, and have at times.


I will concede that they did say "interference" a few times but after a few times it was only obstruction, and the "signals" Tim was referring to were "kind of" there. Jim Joyce did signal and DeMuth did see it, however Tim was trying to make it sound like they were doing some sort of super secret long distance hand shake that only he could decipher as a signal, when in reality it was just a normal signal of a point that happens many times during a season, there just normally is no need for further involvement as the "awarded" bases are achieved anyway.
To me it seamed like an automatic call to make.

Gil Imber said...

Emmel's zone was awful. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?month=10&day=27&year=2013&game=gid_2013_10_27_bosmlb_slnmlb_1%2F&prevGame=gid_2013_10_24_slnmlb_bosmlb_1%2F&prevDate=1027

Gil Imber said...

He had the same problem Demuth did with the low pitches.

Gil Imber said...

Considering that he was moving for the duration of the play, I think Bill Miller can count himself lucky for getting the call at the plate right.

Gil Imber said...

The home plate ump in game 5 was terrible. He called Matt Carpenter out twice on called 3rd strikes and neither pitch was a strike. The first time the pitch was 6-8 inches off the inside of the plate and the ump was set up on that side....how do you miss this pitch? The pitch in the 8th was 6 inches outside. He also missed 3-4 strikes early when Wainright was hitting the outside corner but the ump was set up on the inside...... bad bad job. I've noticed that MLB will hardly show the strike tracker in the bottom right hand corner when the Cardinals are pitching....but when the Red Sox are pitching they show it all the time. They should leave it up every pitch to show how bad the home plate ump was last night. The Cards had runner on 2nd and Carpenter should of walked to give them a threat.... but the ump took the bat out of his hands on a ball way inside. Makes one curious....

Gil Imber said...

The data disagree with you, at least as far as your intimations of bias.

Gil Imber said...

But, if Craig had avoided him he would have scored easily. I don't see the problem.

Gil Imber said...

You are wrong Troy! The 3-2 pitch to Carpenter was way outside and the data says so as well. At the same time I love Bill Miller as an umpire because of his big strike zone and his consistency.

Gil Imber said...

Troy said that the data disagrees with Fan32's "intimations of bias". In what way does your single pitch example disprove that statement?

Gil Imber said...

see, I have a hard time with big strike zones. That's why I like Joe West's zone. It is relatively small, yet he is amazingly consistent. The game is slanted to the pitchers (I say this because if any batter gets a hit more than a a quarter of their at-bats, we find them to be great hitters) I take grief from games that I do because my zone is slightly smaller than most. As long as an umpire is consistent, I really don't care about what pitch FX says.

Gil Imber said...

The summary numbers up top are wrong. Total should be 72/74 Balls, 33/44 Strikes, 105/118 = 89.0%
Missed Balls:
AB ID #8 0-0 pitch: px = 0.437 pz = 3.503 sz_top = 3.66
AB ID #35 0-0 pitch: px = 0.531 pz = 3.504 sz_top = 3.61
Both are Lester's pitches.


I also count 11 missed strikes. 7 for BOS,
5 of the 7 were off the left corner of the plate, one of them both off the plate and low. Lester's called strike 3 against Carpenter was about 7 inches off, Koji's was about 3.5 inches off.


Of similarly valued px pitches for STL, (Less than 3.5 inches off left side of plate) STL got 3 pitches called as balls. Perhaps its no coincidence that 12/15 or 80% of Koji's pitcher were to that edge of the plate(As opposed to 10/26 or 38.4% in the rest of the series), earning him two unearned strikes, and two swinging strikes on two seamers that were close enough before breaking sharply. Carpenters AB made it clear they had to

Gil Imber said...

So now that more data has been presented regarding bias no response?


I look forward to the day these discussions are irrelevant, bring on the robo umps!

Gil Imber said...

Why would I need to respond? If you are correct then the numbers are indeed lopsided and you have disproven Troy's statement, ending the discussion.

Gil Imber said...

Apology accepted...

Gil Imber said...

???

Gil Imber said...

I know you meant to say:


"My apologies, I mistakenly assumed Troy had bothered to look at the data before making his statement. Clearly that was not the case, and I found myself in a Russian nesting doll situation, with my foot in my mouth and my head up my ass, which prevented me from responding."

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