Sunday, May 4, 2014

Instant Replay Review Statistics: Week 5 Sabermetrics

Instant Replay Review Statistics and Sabermetrics are now available for MLB Week 5. As the numbers and trends begin to form, Close Call Sports and the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League continues with the strategic statistics reporting, the first measure of umpire-centric sabermetrics in professional baseball. Visit Instant Replay Review Statistics 101: Week 1 Sabermetrics for an introduction to Replay Review definitions and terms, including Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP), also known as QOC (Quality of Correctness), Replay Percentage of Success (RPS), alternatively, 1.000 - RAP = RPS, and Manager's Challenge Success Percentage (CSP).

With Week 5 of the MLB Regular Season in the books, the UEFL recaps professional baseball's "this time it counts" living experiment with Instant Replay Reviews. Our sample size is n=222.

Key bullet points:
"Team Most Used" (Made use of Replay Review most often): Oakland Athletics - 17.
"Team Least Used" (Least use of Replay): D-Backs, Braves, Orioles, Twins - 3.
"Manager's Challenge Leaders" (Most challenges filed): R Renteria - 14.
"Most successful Manager" (Manager with highest CSP): B Black - 1.000 in 4/4.
"Least successful Manager" (Manager with lowest CSP): J Gibbons - .000 in 0/6.
"Umpire most questioned" (Ump with most Replay Reviews): Davidson, Gibson - 6.
"Crew most questioned" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Reviews): T Welke, G Davis - 15.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): Bellino, Carapazza - 1.000 in 4/4.
"Umpire of greatest overturn" (Umpire with lowest RAP): Eddings, Bill Welke - .000 in 0/4.
"Overall affirmation or QOC percentage" (Overall RAP): .536 (119/222 Affirmed Replay Reviews).
Team Status Pre-Review (Winning or Losing prior to review [Win-Loss-Tied]): 68-91-62.
Team Status Post-Review (Game Record [W-L]): 107-114. (Delta: 39-23; WPCT: .629).

Actual data:
Games Played: 461 of 2430.
Replay Reviews & Decisions Rendered: 222 (on pace for 1,170 [+62 from last wk] Replay Reviews)
- Crew Chief Reviews (Replay Reviews initiated by the Umpire Chief): 39 (18%), .813 RAP.
- Manager's Challenges (Replay Reviews initiated by the Club Manager): 183 (82%), .511 RAP.

- By Inning: 8 (36), 9 (33), 6 (23), 3 (22), 7 (22), 5 (21), 2 (19), 4 (18), 1 (17), Extra (11).
- By Type: Safe/Out (163), HR/Not HR (19), Rule 7.13 (13), HBP/Foul (11), Fair/Foul (5).
- By Day of Week: Sun (43), Wed (39), Sat (33), Fri (31), Mon (29), Thu (25), Tue (22).

Teams Most Used - Quantity of Replay Reviews (both Crew Chief & Manager's Challenge)
1. Oakland Athletics: 17 (8 Crew Chief Reviews [.750 RAP], 9 Challenges [.667 RAP]).
2. Chicago Cubs: 15 (1 Crew Chief Review [1.000 RAP], 14 Challenges [.500 RAP]).
3. New York Yankees: 11 (2 Crew Chief Reviews [1.000 RAP], 9 Challenges [.222 RAP]).
3. Tampa Bay Rays: 11 (11 Challenges [.636 RAP]).
3. Miami Marlins: 11 (4 Crew Chief Reviews [.750 RAP], 7 Challenges [.143 RAP]).

Most Successful Managers - Managers with Highest CSP
1. Bud Black (San Diego Padres): 1.000 CSP (4/4 Challenges Overturned).
2. Fredi Gonzalez (Atlanta Braves): 1.000 CSP (3/3 Challenges Overturned).
3. Mike Redmond (Miami Marlins): .857 CSP (6/7 Challenges Overturned).
4. Bo Porter (Houston Astros): .800 CSP (4/5 Challenges Overturned).
4. Bruce Bochy (San Francisco Giants): .800 CSP (4/5 Challenges Overturned).

Least Successful Managers - Managers with Lowest CSP
1. John Gibbons (Toronto Blue Jays): .000 CSP (0/6 Challenges Overturned).
2. Robin Ventura (Chicago White Sox): .167 CSP (1/6 Challenges Overturned).
3. John Farrell (Boston Red Sox): .200 CSP (1/5 Challenges Overturned).
4. Bryan Price (Cincinnati Reds): .333 CSP (2/6 Challenges Overturned).
4. Terry Francona (Cleveland Indians): .333 CSP (2/6 Challenges Overturned).
4. Matt Williams (Washington Nationals): .333 CSP (2/6 Challenges Overturned).

Most Accurate Umpires - Umpire with greatest RAP
1. Dan Bellino, Vic Carapazza: 1.000 RAP (4/4 Replays Affirmed).
3. Chris Guccione: 1.000 RAP (3/3 Replays Affirmed).
4. Jordan Baker, Mike Estabrook, Clint Fagan, Chris Segal, Jim Wolf: 1.000 RAP (2/2 Affirmed).

Umpire of Greatest Overturn % - Umpire with lowest RAP
1. Doug Eddings, Bill Welke: .000 RAP (0/4 Replays Affirmed).
3. Gerry Davis, Tim Welke: .000 RAP (0/3 Replays Affirmed).
5. Paul Emmel, Pat Hoberg, Mike Muchlinski, Dale Scott, Larry Vanover: .000 RAP (0/2 Affirmed).

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