Tuesday, August 2, 2016

UEFL's MLB Umpire Sabermetrics Update - July 2016

MLB Umpire Sabermetrics are now available for all games played through the end of July, featuring 120 ejections and 966 Replay Reviews through 1,558 games played.

We presently expect 187 ejections this season, and 1,507 Replay Reviews. As previously noted, ejections dropped off after the Joe Torre memo, but so too did Replay Reviews, which, on July 27, made MLB history when the seasonal number of overturned calls outnumbered those upheld by instant replay for the first time since not only expanded replay was introduced in 2014, but since limited replay was introduced in 2008, as well.

Summary, Ejections.
>> 120 Total Regular Season Ejections through July 31, 2016 (on pace for 187 ejections this season).
>> Umpires were 67.1% accurate on calls associated with ejection.
>> The Blue Jays were ejected more often than any other team (a trend which continues in July).
>> Manager John Gibbons of the Toronto Blue Jays continued to lead all managers in ejections.
>> Player Yunel Escobar of the LA Angels led all players in ejections.
>> Umpire Dale Scott led all umpires in ejections.
>> Chief Dale Scott's crew led all umpire crews in ejections.
>> Most ejections occurred in the 8th inning; Ejections from 7th and on comprised 46% of all tosses.
>> Most ejections occurred on Sundays. Weekend series (Fri-Sun) featured 54% of all heave-ho's.
>> The most common reason for ejection was Balls/Strikes, followed by Throwing At.
>> All else equal, a team tied at the time of ejection ended up winning the game 90.5% of the time.

Summary, Replay Reviews.
>> 966 Total Replay Reviews, of which calls were affirmed 49.6% of the time (50.4% overturned).
>> The Colorado Rockies used replay more than any other team, and beat the league average.
>> The Kansas City Royals were the League's most successful teams in review.
>> The Oakland Athletics experienced fewer reviews than any other team.
>> Umpire Mark Carlson had 19 calls reviewed, more than any other umpire.
>> Jeff Nelson's crew led all of baseball in replay activity, and performed at about the league average.
>> Umpire Scott Barry led the league in accuracy with all of his calls affirmed by replay.
>> Umpire Dan Iassogna experienced the highest rate of his calls being overturned by replay.
>> The 7th inning had more reviews than any other inning. 42% of all reviews occurred from 7th-on.
>> Most reviews occurred on Sundays; Calls were most often overturned in daytime conditions.
>> The most common reason for review was Out/Safe, followed by Pulled Foot and HBP/No HBP.

For detailed sabermetric analysis of MLB umpire ejections and instant replay review outcomes, follow the "read more" link below.
Total Games Played Through July 31, 2016: 1558 of 2430 (64.1% of the season schedule).

Umpire Ejection Sabermetrics
Ejections: 120. At this pace (120 E / 1558 G), there will be 187 Ejections at regular season's end.
"Team most active" (Team with most Ejections): TOR 11; PIT 9; CWS 6; ATL, CIN 5.
"Team least active" (Team with least Ejections): CLE, NYY, SEA, STL 1; ARI, BAL, CHC, COL 2.
"Manager ejections leader" (Most Ejections): John Gibbons 6; Clint Hurdle 5; (4 Tied) 3.
"Player ejections leader" (Player ejection leader): Yunel Escobar 3; Josh Donaldson 2.
"Umpire leader" (Umpire with most Ejections): Dale Scott 6; Vic Carapazza, Jeff Kellogg 5.
"Crew most active" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Ejections): Scott 13; Hirschbeck, Everitt 8.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest QOC): Jeff Kellogg (3/3 + 2 U = 1.000 QOCY).
"Overall QOC percentage" (Overall QOC Y value): .653 (64 Y / 34 N) + 22 Irrecusable = 120 Total.
"Team Status Pre-Ejection" (Winning-Losing-Tied [W-L-T] Record prior to Ejection): 23-76-21.
"Team Status Post-Ejection" (Game Record [W-L]): 42-78. (Delta: 19-2; WPCT: .905).

By Inning: 8 (20), 5 (17), 6/9 (15), 7 (14), 3 (13), 4 (12), Extas (6), 1/2 (4).
By Reason: Balls/Strikes (68), Throwing At (11), Check Swing (8), Replay Review (7), Balk (6).
By Day of Week: Sun (25), Fri (22), Wed (19), Tues (18), Sat (18), Mon (10), Thurs (8).

Umpire Instant Replay Review Sabermetrics
Replay Reviews & Decisions Rendered: 966, .496 RAP (479/966). On pace for 1507 Replays.
"Team Most Used" (Used Replay Review most often): COL 44; STL, SD 42; TOR, MIA, BOS 41.
"Team Least Used" (Least use of Replay): OAK 19; MIN 22; CWS 23; DET, NYM 24; NYY 25.
"Most successful team in review" (Team with highest TSP): Royals - .630 (17/27).
"Least successful team in review" (Team with lowest TSP): Nationals - .333 (12/36).
"Umpire most questioned" (Most Replay Reviews): Mark Carlson 19; (8 Tied) 17.
"Crew most questioned" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Reviews): Nelson 60; Everitt 54; Hallion 50.
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): Scott Barry - 1.000 in 4/4 (only perfect ump).
"Ump of greatest overturn" (Umpire with lowest RAP): Dan Iassogna - .177 in 3/17.

Actual data (Raw Data for Replay Reviews):
- By Inning: 7 (138), 8 (132), 6 (108), 5/9 (103), 4 (98), 3 (96), 1 (87), 2 (69), Extras (32).
- By Reason: Out/Safe (654), Out/Pulled Foot (55), HBP/No HBP (31), HR/In Play (27), Tag/No Tag (24).
- By Day of Week: Sun (176), Sat (169), Tues (148), Wed (137), Fri (135), Mon (118), Thurs (83).

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