The new hires of Gonzalez, Porter, and Carapazza are bad news for four umpires: Mike Estabrook (100+ games last four years, 595 total since 2006), DJ Reyburn (387 total games, 130 in 2012), Angel Campos (549 games since 2007) and Mike Muchlinski (467 total, 132 last season). I expect the new young guns—Jordan Baker (72 MLB games in 1st year of AAA) and Lance Barrett (146 games in career; 104 last year)—to get continued cracks; for some reason, I don't think they are done figuring out John Tumpane either (84 games in three seasons; 10 last year).
Essentially, MLB (Marsh, et al.) is not stupid: League brass knows it needs familiar call ups.
Esta, DJ, Angel, and Mike M. will provide that. Next year, the newer guys who will work 30-45 games in 2013 will be ready to get more games in 2014. This will allow for the release of some AAA mainstay—I think the only one who has a shot at a full time job is Estabrook. Though MLB was not high on Mike M. going into the year, he stayed up (despite a delayed call up) for almost the entire year.
Here are a few things to look for: (1) What umpires will be up to start the season? Those guys are the ones MLB is highest on. (2) Notice the guys that are up for the 1st time. If they stay for a few weeks, MLB supers are high on that individual.
Broken down by umpire, here are my predictions. Included are # of MLB games & seasons worked.
Green represents most likely to be hired while red is most likely to be released. Yellow is the middle ground:
Jordan Baker (72 games in 2012, 72 overall in one season):
The next chosen one. Likely to be up 130+ contests in 2013.
Lance Barrett (104 games in 2012, 146 overall in three seasons):
Potentially would be No. 2 on this list by year's end. Has the highest upside.
Toby Basner (19 games in 2012, 19 overall in one season):
Under 30 and stock is rising!
Cory Blaser (104 games in 2012, 226 overall in three seasons):
Had such a quiet year that I almost left him off the list. Was up from Aug. 13 onward and had some meaningful plates. That's a good sign heading into the 2013 MLB season.
Angel Campos (76 games in 2012, 549 overall in six seasons):
Will continue to get phased out.
Chris Conroy (129 games in 2012, 212 overall in three seasons):
Here's another guy that showed a lot last season, but his clock is ticking as he'll be 39 during the year. Will there be enough jobs for him?
Mike Estabrook (120 games in 2012, 595 overall in seven seasons):
I expect Estabrook to be up 130+ in 2013. If there were to be three jobs in 2014, Esta will be in great shape.
Clint Fagan (16 games in 2012, 21 overall in two seasons):
Make it or break it year for Clint. Under 20 games would be a bad sign; over 60 would be promising.
Mark Lollo (2 games in 2012, 10 overall in two seasons):
Over 30 and stock is sinking.
David Rackley (50 games in 2012, 104 overall in three seasons):
His direction this year will determine his future. My hope is he gets 100+ games, but my fear is he's not in MLB's plans and is just a space filler until younger guys are ready.
DJ Reyburn (130 games in 2012, 387 overall in five seasons):
I don't think he's going to get as many games. I'm surprised he's had as long of a look as he has.
Mark Ripperger (12 games in 2012, 57 overall in three seasons):
Doesn't seem like he's part of MLB's plan going forward.
John Tumpane (10 games in 2012, 84 overall in three seasons):
I'm really confused by MLB's handling on Tumpane in 2012, but he is still young enough to get a long look.
Hal Gibson and Adam Hamari are still hoping to get "the call."
And a list wouldn't be complete without some power rankings (sleeve #, 2012 ejection count, residence):
14) Mark Lollo (#96, 0 Ejections in 2012, Ohio).
13) Mark Ripperger (#90, 1 Ejection in 2012, California).
12) Clint Fagan (#82, 1 Ejection in 2012, Texas).
11) Angel Campos (#84, 7 Ejections in 2012, Arizona).
10) John Tumpane (#74, 0 Ejections in 2012, Illinois).
9) David Rackley (#86, 1 Ejection in 2012, North Carolina).
8) Mike Muchlinski (#76, 1 Ejection in 2012, Washington).
7) DJ Reyburn (#70, 5 Ejections in 2012, Tennessee).
6) Cory Blaser (#89, 0 Ejections in 2012, Colorado).
5) Toby Basner (#99, 0 Ejections in 2012, Georgia).
4) Chris Conroy (#98, 1 Ejection in 2012, Massachusetts).
3) Mike Estabrook (#83, 3 Ejections in 2012, New Jersey).
2) Lance Barrett (#94, 5 Ejections in 2012, Texas).
1) Jordan Baker (#71, 3 Ejections in 2012, Oklahoma).
TBA: Hal Gibson (#73, Montana) and Adam Hamari (#78, Michigan).
There may be a couple of additions or deletions to this list. There is a possibility some might retire during spring training and a few new call-ups could get numbers very soon!