A Look at Crew Chief Replay Review Statistics

Here at Closecallsports, replay guru TMAC has watched every single replay, charting each one since the inception of expanded video review. Besides needing a hobby, over the next few weeks TMAC will share that data with you in three parts. The first analysis was of all the MiLB Call-up umpires.  For that data look here: https://www.closecallsports.com/2023/01/2023-mlb-call-up-umpire-hiring-outlook.html

We now turn our attention to MLB crew chiefs. SPOILER ALERT: There may be some newly promoted names in the following list! We will formally announce the new chiefs at a later date.

In 2022 there were 670 calls overturned (OT) by the replay system, or one in every 3.63 games.  Remember there are four umpires assigned to regular season affairs so that comes to one OT, every 14.5 games as the average for each umpire.  If 14.5 is the barometer, you will notice some better and some not quite up to the MLB average.

Two Runners, One Base - Rules & Situation Handling Review

Two Duluth baserunners found themselves standing on the same base during a Northwoods League game at Rochester when the catcher tagged both players. The third base umpire declared one of them out, but rather than call the other out as well when he stepped off the base, incorrectly believing he was out, the play was declared dead. What happened?

With runners on second and third base and one out, the batter hits an infield ground ball, resulting in a rundown as lead/preceding baserunner R3 becomes stuck between home and third base. The defense runs R3 back to third base, where R2, having advanced, is now standing. The catcher tags both R2 and R3 while both runners are in contact with third base. As the umpire declares R2 out, R3 steps off the base (incorrectly believing he was out), resulting in yet another tag by the catcher.

Although the umpire initially called "Time" instead of calling R3 out for being tagged while off of a base, the crew convened to discuss the play, correctly opting to reverse the erroneous "Time" call and declare R3 out, resulting in an inning-ending double play.

Tmac takes us through the game management sequence that follows, including discussing the outcome of the play with the aggrieved manager. The relevant rule is Official Baseball Rule 5.06(a)(2): "Two runners may not occupy a base, but if, while the ball is alive, two runners are touching a base, the following runner shall be out when tagged and the preceding runner is entitled to the base, unless Rule 5.06(b)(2) applies" (OBR 5.06(b)(2) simply states that if there is a FORCE PLAY wherein the trailing runner [R2 in this scenario] is forced to advanced by the virtue of the batter becoming a runner, then the TRAILING RUNNER [R2] would be entitled to the base and R3 would be out of if tagged while in simultaneous contact with the bag while R2 was standing on it).

Video as follows:

Pirates & Orioles Play Without Umpires in 9th Inning

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles played a half inning without MLB umpires present after the officiating crew left the field in the middle of the 9th inning. Why did the umpires leave before the teams called it a day? It all has to do with the Official Baseball Rules.

Pittsburgh held a 7-4 lead over Baltimore in the top of the 9th inning when a groundout resulted in the third out and thus conclusion of the inning's top half.

Under normal circumstances, the third out of the top of the 9th inning when the home team is leading results in the end of the game: "The game ends when the visiting team completes its half of the ninth inning if the home team is ahead" (OBR 7.01(g)(1)). However, Pittsburgh and Baltimore wanted to play out the bottom of the 9th inning to get more field time in during Spring Training. Surely the umpires could have stayed to officiate three more outs, right?

Wrong. Umpires are tasked with enforcing the rules as written, and the rules state the game is over pursuant to OBR 7.01(g)(1)—three outs in the top of the 9th inning when the home team is ahead.

OBR 8.01(a) makes this responsibility clear: "The umpires shall be responsible for the conduct of the game in accordance with these official rules and for maintaining discipline and order on the playing field during the game."

By rule, the game ended after the third out in the top of the 9th inning, meaning the umpires' in-game duties—such as calling balls and strikes, safes and outs, and fairs and fouls—had ended.

Related Post: Cleveland-Giants Play Without Umpires - Scrimmage? (3/14/21).

More a concern at lower levels of play, the concept of officials' liability thus takes center stage. In general, a sports official such as a referee or umpire enjoys certain organizational protections—whether afforded by the league, conference, association, and/or insurance network—throughout the scope of their ordinary duties, which includes adhering to the rules as written.

Any playing action that occurs after the game is considered ended/over pursuant to the rules is thus considered unofficial—a scrimmage, a forfeit, etc. Due to liability—risk of injury, risk of controversy, risk of other damages—sports officials are generally not covered during unsanctioned gameplay, which is what Pittsburgh-Baltimore's bottom of the 9th ultimately was. And for that reason, Chief Chad Fairchild called in his crew and they dutifully left the playing field at the conclusion of the game, as delineated by the rules.

You might also notice that the official scorer likewise recorded this game as final following the top of the ninth inning.

Box: Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates (Spring Training), 2/28/23 | Video as follows:

Pitcher Pitch Clock Violations & Balks Join Spring

Not to be outdone by batter violations of MLB's pitch clock rule, a smattering of pitcher violations for failing to begin delivery prior to the expiration of time, exceeding step-offs, and no-stop balks to try and beat the timer joined Spring Training, giving umpires even more pace of play calls to make due to baseball's new timing and procedure rules.

As previously discussed, batter pitch clock violations occur when the 30- (between batters), 20- (between pitches with runners on base), or 15-second (between pitches with the bases empty) pitch clock reaches the eight-second mark while the batter isn't yet ready and alert to the pitcher—namely, looking in the pitcher's direction while standing in the batter's box and in a hitting stance or a position that can immediately transform into a hitting stance. A batter's violation of the pitch clock rule results in an automatic strike added to the count.

Related Post: MLB Game Ends on Critical Pitch Clock Violation's Auto-K3 (2/26/23).

Related Post: Pitch Clock Violation Strikes on 1st Day of Spring Training (2/25/23).

Pitchers can also violate the rule by allowing the clock to reach zero seconds without starting their delivery to the batter or stepping off/disengaging the rubber. The pitcher is allowed up to two 'free' step-offs per at-bat with runners on base, provided that the pitcher may technically throw over a third time but if they fail to pickoff or otherwise retire the runner on that third time, the umpire shall call a balk. The disengagement limit "resets" to two in the event a runner advances (e.g., due to a stolen base or balk).

A pitcher's violation of the pitch clock rule results in an automatic ball. This video highlights a defensive pitch clock violation by the White Sox, a non-reset of the clock when Guardians pitcher James Karinchak wanted a new baseball (was this call correct? we break down the rule!), and a three-disengagement violation with the Red Sox.

Related Post: MLB Announces Rules Changes for 2023 - A Review (9/9/22).

Finally, umpires should also be aware of the potential for pitchers to more frequently commit pre-existing old-fashioned balk infractions, namely violations of the "stop" requirement with runners on base. For instance, a pitcher with runners on base and sensing a pitch clock is about to expire might rush through Set Position without stopping, as is required, which would result in a balk. This is what occurred when Seattle pitcher Logan Rinehart tried beating the clock and rushed through delivery, resulting in a no-stop balk.

Video as follows:

MLB Game Ends on Critical Pitch Clock Violation's Auto-K3

Atlanta's 9th inning rally fell short Saturday when the Braves' three-run comeback bid abruptly ended on a two-out, 3-2 count, bases loaded...automatic strike call due to batter Cal Conley not being in the box and alert to Red Sox pitcher Robert Kwiatkowski prior to the eight-second mark of the pitch clock's 20-second (with runners on base) countdown.

Atlanta had scored three runs turning a 6-3 deficit into a tied game when Conley threatened to win the game for the Braves, what with baserunner Eli White representing the winning run at third base. Instead, HP Umpire John Libka called "Time" and imposed an automatic strike upon batter Conley due to the pitch clock violation, resulting in the at-bat's third strike, inning's third out, and—because of Spring Training—the game's conclusion with a 6-6 tie.

This the second consecutive day since Spring Training began that a pitch clock violation resulted in an automatic strike, albeit the first time that a pitch clock violation effectively ended a ballgame at the major league level. On Friday, HP Umpire Ryan Blakney called Padres batter Manny Machado for an auto-strike due to the batter failing to be ready and alert at the eight-second mark of the countdown clock.

Related Post: Pitch Clock Violation Strikes on 1st Day of Spring Training (2/25/23).

To review, a batter must be ready to go (in the box and alert to the pitcher) at the eight-second mark while the pitcher must be ready to go (the pitching motion must begin) prior to the zero-second mark of the countdown clock. A batter's violation results in an automatic strike while a pitcher's violation results in an auto-ball.

Related Post: MLB Announces Rules Changes for 2023 - A Review (9/9/22).

The countdown timer is 30 seconds between batters, 20 seconds between pitches with runners on base (clock starts when pitcher receives return ball), and 15 seconds between pitches with the bases empty.

Video as follows:

Pitch Clock Violation Strikes on 1st Day of Spring Training

Padres batter Manny Machado was penalized for violating MLB's new pitch clock rules on the first day of 2023 Spring Training, with HP Umpire Ryan Blakney awarding an automatic strike during Friday's Seattle-San Diego game when Mariners pitcher Robbie Ray was unable to deliver his pitch to Machado because batter Machado was not ready to receive it in time.

With one out and none on in the bottom of the 1st inning, Machado failed to appear in the batter's box and alert to the pitcher (ready for the pitch) with eight seconds remaining in the pitch clock countdown timer, which is the new rule's requirement. As a result, Blakney called "Time" and awarded an automatic strike, making the count 0-1. The at-bat continued in short order with Machado getting a base hit.

To review, the 2023 Pitch Clock rules for Major League Baseball are:

30-second timer will be used between batters;

20-second timer will be used between pitches with runners on base;

15-second timer will be used between pitches with zero runners on base.

The clock begins when the umpire declares "Play", the pitcher receives the ball (if time is already in), or the prior play concludes (as applicable).

The batter must be ready to go (in the box and alert to the pitcher) at the eight-second mark.

The pitcher must be ready to go (the pitching motion must begin) by the zero-second expiration of time.

Batter violation penalty: Automatic Strike / Pitcher violation penalty: Automatic ball.

Penalty for Arguing: Ejection.

Related Post: MLB Announces Rules Changes for 2023 - A Review (9/9/22).

Video as follows:

Carlson's Read Step on Awkward Throw at 1st Base

For this Teachable, 1B Umpire Mark Carlson demonstrates the light touch of a read step to adapt and adjust to an awkward throw at first base, as Cubs batter-runner Willson Contreras attempts to avoid Twins fielder Miguel Sano's tag on Josh Donaldson's off-line throw.

In officiating this play, Carlson trusts his instincts to move from the focal point of Sano's foot, which comes off the bag, to follow the ball toward Contreras' batting glove, which is tagged prior to the batter-runner arriving at first base. Carlson's call of "out" was confirmed via Replay Review.

Video as follows:

Runner's Lane Interference - A Mechanics Review

HP Umpire Nathan Hall did not hesitate to call runner's lane interference after deeming that a batter veered out of the running lane on a play to first base, a definitive decision from the very beginning that features in our Play Breakdown, sponsored by Umpire Placement Course (umpcourse.com), gateway to job placement across several professional leagues, including the Northwoods League, where this play took place.

With two out and two on (R1, R2) in the top of the 8th inning of the Wausau Woodchucks vs Traverse City Pit Splitters, a ground ball back to the pitcher's mound turned into an eventful few seconds for HP Umpire Hall as he first cleared the catcher to signal the batted ball fair before setting up along the foul line between home plate and first base.

Having observed that the Woodchucks batter-runner appeared to run inside (to the left of) the runner's lane (sidebar: both "inside" and "outside" the lane are illegal; within the lane is legal), Hall called "Time" to indicate runner's lane interference, ruling that the runner's illegal positioning constituted interference when the Pit Splitters pitcher's throw to first base hit the runner's helmet before bouncing into right field.

Hall then discusses the play with Wausau's manager before the game resumes.

Video as follows:

MLB Hires 10 Call-Up Umpires to Full-Time Staff

After a consolidated-era 10 major league umpires retired following the 2022 season, MLB has hired 10 call-ups to fill the vacancies. The new full-time umpires on Major League Baseball's staff range in age from 31 (Brennan Miller) to 40 (Nick Mahrley) and bring a combined 2,608 games of MLB experience during their service as MiLB call-up umpires. 

The most experienced new-hires (Shane Livensparger and Mahrley) began their minor league careers in 2009 while Edwin Moscoso began working in professional baseball most recently (2014). Livensparger and Mahrley tie for the most games of MLB experience at their 2023 hiring (382 games apiece) while Malachi Moore has the least games worked at the major league level (156).

In the table below, we have summarized these data, along with stats and ranks for replay overturn rate and plate scores (listed below the table). For both the Replay Rank and Plate Rank columns, the highest attainable rank is one, the lowest 24, and are compared to the field of all 2022 call-up umpires for whom we have data.

Name	Age	First Year of MiLB	MLB Experience	Replay Overturn Rate	Replay Rank	Plate Score	Plate Rank
Bacchus, Erich	32	2012	234	12.3	14	93.5	19
Beck, Adam	34	2013	253	18.1	5	94.4	4
Ceja, Nestor	35	2012	253	11.5	16	93.7	15
Livensparger, Shane	38	2009	382	9.3	21	94.3	7
Mahrley, Nick	40	2009	382	10.6	19	93.6	17
Miller, Brennan	31	2013	195	16.3	6	93.5	18
Moore, Malachi	32	2012	156	11.1	17	92.1	24
Moscoso, Edwin	33	2014	333	15.1	9	94.6	2
Tosi, Alex	34	2011	187	9.1	22	94.5	3
Valentine, Junior	35	2011	233	13.1	13	94.3	6

Plate Score Accuracy Rank, 2022 MiLB Call-Ups [Compiled Data is Career-Based]

1. Ballou, Brock: 94.8;

2. Moscoso, Edwin: 94.6;

3. Tosi, Alex: 94.5;

4. Beck, Adam: 94.4 [94.39];

5. Riggs, Jeremy: 94.4 [94.35];

6. Valentine, Junior: 94.3 [94.33];

7. Livensparger, Shane: 94.3 [94.31];

8. MacKay, Alex: 94.2;

9. Williams, Lew: 94.2;

10. Wills, Ryan: 94.1;

11. Merzel, Dan: 94.0;

12. Bacon, John: 93.8;

13. Vondrak, Clint: 93.7 [93.74];

14. Tomlinson, Nate: 93.7 [93.66];

15. Ceja, Nestor: 93.7 [93.65];

16. Ramos, Charlie: 93.6 [93.64];

17. Mahrley, Nick: 93.6 [93.55];

18. Miller, Brennan: 93.5 [93.53];

19. Bacchus, Erich: 93.5 [93.52];

20. Clemons, Paul: 93.4;

21. Arrieta, David: 93.2;

22. Rosenberg, Randy: 93.1;

23. Navas, Jose: 92.9;

24. Moore, Malachi: 92.1.

Video as follows:

2023 MLB Call-Up Umpire Hiring Outlook

Here at Closecallsports, our replay guru TMAC has watched every single replay and charted it since the inception of expanded replay.  Besides needing a hobby, over the next few weeks TMAC will share that data with you in three parts.  The first will be an analysis of all the MILB Call-up umpires.  MLB will be announcing 10 new hires soon!  

In 2022 there were 670 calls overturned (OT) by the replay system, or one in every 3.63 games.  Remember there are four umpires assigned to regular season affairs so that comes to one OT every 14.5 games as the average for each umpire.  If 14.5 is the barometer, you will notice some better and some not quite up to the MLB average.  That average takes into account ALL umpires, both Full-Time, and MILB Call-Ups! 

We will sort each umpire in two ways!  The top chart is by games worked and the lower is by fewest overturns per game.  There is no analysis on total replay reviews.  We only concentrate on overturned calls.  Over the long haul, OTs are the best way to determine who has the best judgement on calls not only that are eligible for replay review, but decisions that encompass all aspects of the game with the exception of handling situations and balls and strikes!    

Nick Mahrley: 476 Games/45 OTs Overturn Rate 1 in 10.6 games

Shane Livensparger: 382/41 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/9.3

Edwin Moscoso: 332/22 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/15.1

Jeremy Riggs: 263/10 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/26.3

Adam Beck: 253/14 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/18.1 

Nestor Ceja: 253/22 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/11.5

Ryan Wills: 250/19 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/13.2

Dan Merzel: 241/6 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/40.2

Junior Valentine: 235/18 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/13.1

Eric Bacchus 234/19 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/12.3

Brennan Miller: 195/12 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/16.3

Alex Tosi: 191/21 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/9.1

Malachi Moore: 156/14 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/11.1

John Bacon: 149/14 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/10.6

Charlie Ramos: 138/10 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/13.8

Clint Vondrak: 133/11 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/12.1

Jose Navas: 130/8 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/16.3

Nate Tomlinson: 92/6 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/15.3

Paul Clemons: 73/4 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/18.3

Alex MacKay: 47/5 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/9.4

Randy Rosenberg 39/5 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/7.8

David Arrieta: 39/1 OT: Overturn Rate 1/39

Brock Ballou: 30/5 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/6

Lew Williams 28/2 OTs: Overturn Rate 1/14

1) Dan Merzel: Overturn Rate 1 Overturn per 40.2 Games (1/40.2)

2) David Arrieta: 1/39

3) Jeremy Riggs: 1/26.3

4) Paul Clemons: 1/18.3

5) Adam Beck: 1/18.1

T6) Brennan Miller: 1/16.3

Jose Navas: 1/16.3

8) Nate Tomlinson: 1/15.3

9) Edwin Moscoso: 1/15.1

10) Lew Williams: 1/14

11) Charlie Ramos: 1/13.8

12) Ryan Wills: 1/13.2

13) Junior Valentine: 1/13.1

14) Eric Bacchus: 1/12.3

15) Clint Vondrak: 1/12.1

16) Nestor Ceja: 1/11.5

17) Malachi Moore: 1/11.1

18) John Bacon: 1/10.6 (10.64)

19) Nick Mahrley: 1/10.6 (10.58)

20) Alex MacKay: 1/9.4 

21) Shane Livensparger: 1/9.3

22) Alex Tosi: 1/9.1

23) Randy Rosenberg: 1/7.8

24) Brock Ballou: 1/6

Notes: 

- David Arrieta wasn’t flipped until his 29th MLB game and he’s on a stretch now of 10 straight.  

- Nate Tomlinson was OT’d three times in his first MLB game, but in his 91 since, he’s been wrong via review only three times also! 

- Brock Ballou’s body of work is small so after one year it’s best to wait for more complete data.

- Dan Merzel’s one overturn in every 40 + games is the best for a call-up at the end of a season since replay began (minimum 50 total MLB games).

- Edwin Moscoso had a breakthrough 2022 season with four flips in 145 games or 1/36.3

This data is by no means the be all and end all but combined with ball-strike success rate it would be a great way to point yourself in the right direction when selecting the newest full-time MLB umpires.  

In our next data drop, we’ll do the same with the replay stats, but we’ll apply our breakdown to the Crew Chiefs!  The data may just surprise you!