Monday, March 11, 2019

Top 15 MLB Hothead Managers by Ejection Frequency

We've published the Top 10 MLB Hothead Players by Ejection Frequency, so now it's time to list the Top 15 Hothead Managers in Major League Baseball. Once again, the umpire sabermetric value Games Per Ejection (GPE) will be used to determine the most frequently ejected skippers in the game.

As we used David Ortiz's 175 GPE for the players' benchmark, we will use all-time managerial ejections leader Bobby Cox's mark of 161 ejections over 4,501 regular season + 136 postseason games, or 29 GPE as our basis for illustration.

Perhaps, however, the more apropos comparison for Cox's notably incessant managerial GPE of 29 is Milton Bradley's GPE of one ejection for every 55 games played.
Related PostDetermining The League's Biggest Hothead (It's Big Papi) (6/11/15).

Rick Renteria is the most-frequent skip ejectee.
Here are the results for the ten most-frequently ejected active managers (minimum 300 games managed). Because managing a team is very different from playing on one, we'll only include data from a person's time as a bona fide manager of a major league ball club. You can also click each skipper's name that appears in the accompanying table for that individual's UEFL ejection report history.

Note that the language used—Hothead Manager—is meant as a consistent title in concert with our Hothead Players feature. Many times, however, a manager—such as Cox—would be ejected not because of a "hothead" reason, but in order to protect a player, who might instead be the true "hothead."

Legend and Definitions
Ejection Rate: Measured in Games-Per-Ejection (GPE).
GPE: Games played divided by their ejections.
EPS: Ejections per Season, based on 162 GP.

Active MLB Managers with Highest Ejection Frequency
#Player NameGames Per Ejection
(GPE [GP/EJ])
Ejections Per Season
(EPS [E/GP*162])
1Rick Renteria276.05
2Ron Gardenhire295.53
3Joe Maddon404.05
4Brad Ausmus404.02
5Clint Hurdle413.96
6Don Mattingly453.63
7Brian Snitker503.25
8Craig Counsell523.18
9Bruce Bochy523.10
10Andy Green543.00
11Ned Yost552.92
12Bob Melvin562.89
13AJ Hinch572.83
14Bud Black582.79
15Terry Francona692.35
15Scott Servais692.33

To summarize:
> Alex Cora (81 GPE and 1.00 EPS), Aaron Boone (54 GPE and 1.50 EPS), and Mike Shildt (35 GPE and 4.70 EPS) didn't make the table because they had too few games of managerial experience.
> Joe Torre (65 GPE and 2.49 EPS), Joe Girardi (48 GPE and 3.37 EPS), and John Gibbons (30 GPE and 5.32 EPS) didn't make the table because they are no longer active managers.

Friday, March 8, 2019

MLB Posts Atlantic League Rules, Including Robot Ump

Major League Baseball and the Atlantic League announced a finalized list of experimental rules changes MLB will test in the AL, including the computer-assisted home plate umpire strike zone feature discussed earlier. Pitcher mound visits will go to zero, bases will get wider, and infielder-based defensive shifts will be banned in some of the other rule changes.

It's official: Computers are coming to ALPB.
In February, we first learned of MLB's partnership with the independent ALPB when the pair of professional baseball leagues published a joint press release.

At the time, I wrote that the move benefits MLB because it allows the highest level of baseball to test realistic and off-the-wall rules changes alike in an environment that features professional players, but is not subject to the confines of affiliated ball or the MLB Players Association.

For the Atlantic League, the move gives the league exposure, access to MLB's computer tracking software with a direct link to MLB scouts, and could potentially attract more talent to the ALPB, as the indy league hopes to open a pipeline to the MiLB draft and then-some. In short, MLB gets its sandbox while ALPB gets to sell itself as a partner of Major League Baseball.
Related PostMLB Taps Atlantic League for Reported Robot Ump Test (2/27/19).

Say goodbye to mound visits while you're at it.
Last time out, we wrote that MLB is looking to change—expansion, electronic zones, etc.—and that this partnership is an offer that ALPB can hardly afford to pass on, especially knowing that if it doesn't partner with affiliated ball, some other indy league will.

The top billed change—the electronic strike zone—will take the form of "assistance," as in the plate umpire will be "assisted" by the radar-based TrackMan PitchCast in calling balls and strikes. Naturally, and probably intentionally, the press release remains vague about what MLB/ALPB means by "assisted." Will players still be able to blame umpires since they're still in command or is this language just meant to placate egos?

As we said before, this will probably result in a lot more strikes on edge pitches—the "funny" ones.

The full list of rules changes MLB will test in the Atlantic League include:
  1. TrackMan will assist the home plate umpire in calling balls and strikes;
  2. No mound visits will be permitted other than in an actual pitching change or medical purpose;
  3. Pitchers must face at least three batters or end an inning before being replaced;
  4. 1B, 2B, and 3B will be increased in size from 15-inches square to 18-inches square;
  5. Institutes requirement that two infielders stand on each side of second base at time-of-pitch;
  6. Reduce time between innings and pitching changes from 2:05 to 1:45, a 20-second decrease;
  7. For 2nd half of season, extend distance between home plate and pitching rubber by 24 inches.
Gil's Call, Quick Takes:
  1. How many times do we have to say that circa-2019 electronic strike zones are flawed?
  2. MLB has already limited mound visits, so this move will test game impact by their elimination.
  3. This was a 2019 MLB rule change proposal that went nowhere...so it'll be tested in the ALPB.
  4. Lessens the likelihood of collision between runner and fielder (unless Manny Machado plays).
  5. There has been talk of MLB looking to eliminate defensive shifts and this rule is a test of that.
  6. Without directly saying "what happens if we get rid of one commercial break," this is that.
  7. This will give pitchers more chance to spin the ball while giving batters a split second to react.
According to MLB Senior Vice President of League Economics and Operations, MLB hopes to see the rule changes create more balls in play, defensive action, baserunning, and improved player safety."

This is the first of a three-season MLB and ALPB partnership.

Thursday, March 7, 2019

MLB Welcomes Betting by Tweaking Ump Release Info

In the wake of legalized nation-wide sports gambling subject to state adoption, MLB will change the way umpire and team lineup information is released. Instead of allowing clubs to release starting lineups in an unregulated manner, the clubs will now submit all information to the Commissioner's Office, which will reportedly hold the "confidential information" for 15 minutes before making it public by releasing it on an official feed, which it will share with sports data partner Sportradar and betting partner MGM Resorts.

MLB also announced plans to release umpire information in a similar manner. The idea is to "reduce the risk of confidential information being 'tipped.'"

Realistically, that means the coveted "first game of the series" umpiring lineup will go through MLB's central office/system, rather than simply being released via the stats stringer's MLBAM publishing to Gameday (website) or At Bat (app) for those outside the stadium, or via the team's press box lineup monitor for those inside the venue.

Major League Baseball wrote that the changes are meant to reduce "integrity risks" related to sports betting in the wake of a 2018 Supreme Court decision that led Joe West to conclude, "It scares me to death."
Related PostGambling Ban Reversal Has Joe West Scared "to Death" (5/17/18).

A 2018 lawsuit accuses LA owners of fraud.
Don't think sports and money is a big deal? Consider a 2018 class action lawsuit filed against Dodgers ownership group Guggenheim Partners alleging that it defrauded annuity investors by, amongst other things, "siphoning cash for purposes including [Mark] Walter's purchase of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team."

Albert Ogles and a group of investors sued the Dodgers ownership group for breach of contract, federal RICO violations, and unjust enrichment.

The suit, named Ogles v. Security Benefit Life Insurance Company et al (Guggenheim owns Security Benefit), charges that Guggenheim, Walter, then-Guggenheim president Todd Boehly, and Robert Patton Jr—all of whom appear on the Dodgers website as executives—used their insurers and customers as a "cash machine" to fund their record-setting $2.15 billion purchase of the Dodgers in 2012.

No wonder they could afford to buy out Frank McCourt! Allegedly.

Reuters noted, "the complaint...has drawn little media attention."

In November 2018, Walter, Magic Johnson, and several other associates pledged $20 billion of their personal wealth to prop up insurers associated with Guggenheim's purchase of the Dodgers. A CNBC report omitted to mention the 2018 lawsuit, but did mention that two annuity holders sued Guggenheim in 2014 over the Dodgers purchase, and similarly mentioned a regulatory investigation into Guggenheim's conduct.

Joe West expressed his disproval at the law.
Gil's Call: Sports betting's expansion in the United States has prompted states and federal entities alike to write and rewrite policies, procedures, and regulations akin to another event in US history—the expansion of the stock market.

In February 2019, The Daily Dose ran the headline, "Insider Trading Laws Are Coming ... To Sports Betting," in which several states with legalized sports gambling, as well as pending US Senate legislation, set to criminalize the use of "material nonpublic information" in sports betting, similar to the way the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 established the Securities & Exchange Commission, instructing the SEC to crack down on insider trading.

Yet at a time when sports betting is set to turn into a financial powerhouse like the stock exchange, independent bettors—including those who aren't partners with MLB like MGM and Sportradar—are crying foul, claiming MLB's new process ensures that only those entities handpicked by the league, such as MGM, will get lineup information before everyone else, which would lead to an unfair betting advantage.

Will MLB and related entities find themselves having to go through the government, similar to how the NYSE is overseen by the SEC?

In April 2018, Sportradar Head of Esports James Watson separated from the company after an internal investigation into Watson breaking company policy by placing bets on esports contests. While the company claimed there was no evidence of privileged information misuse or manipulation, several outsiders charged Watson with doing just that.

Baseball is becoming bigger business.
On February 24, 2019, Forbes posited that sports bettors leaked the Academy Award's winner for Best Director with widespread discussion that someone had inside information regarding the category. As a result, betting firms largely closed the Best Director option to new bets, but not before a handful of accounts already wagered on longshot and rumored winner Yorgos Lanthimos. Lanthimos ultimately lost to Alfonso Cuarón, leading to speculation as to potential manipulation, similar to price manipulation built on manufactured rumors in the stock market.

Watson, for instance, was found by Sportradar to have placed a series of low-value wagers, which doesn't sound like much, until the angle of manipulation comes into play.

To borrow from the SEC's case book, stock manipulation can be based on inside information, or with no actual information whatsoever (instead, the simple illusion of information can be enough to manipulate the market or even cause a panic [what is a fear-driven rush to sell?]). When it comes to low-price stocks, penny stock fraud commonly takes the form of "pump-and-dump" schemes wherein manipulators buy shares of penny stocks so as to create a public drive-to-buy. As soon as the manipulated penny stock/microcap reaches a certain price point, the fraudsters dump the shares, earning massive profits while leading duped consumers holding the bag with a largely worthless stock.

The ballpark formerly known as Enron Field.
This brand of manipulation sounds very similar to what occurred with the 2019 Academy Awards, and considering its ties to sports betting, there is a great risk it may try to make an appearance in a professional sports league, in some form.

And last but not least, it should come as no surprise that alleged manipulation plays a prominent role in Ogles' lawsuit against Dodgers ownership.

Sidebar Trivia: Just like 2017 World Series foe Los Angeles, the Houston Astros are forever connected to insider trading, as that club still plays at a stadium once known as Enron Field, named for the Texas company taken down by a massive fraud, money laundering, insider trading, and conspiracy scandal (though Enron never owned the Astros).

In other words, the 2017 World Series featured two clubs—the Dodgers and the Astros—with connections to fraud, though only the Dodgers' connection concerns a current lawsuit, and the club's actual ownership.

The Good: MLB's desire to control the release of this information is not an overreaction, just as Joe West's line—"it scares me to death"—is not an overreaction. Sports has become big business and betting has the potential to rival the stock market, one day in the distant future (remember, securities have a massive head start), and it behooves leagues to get smart about the way their game-day information is being used.

It's a good thing that MLB will address betting.
The Bad: Cries from non-MLB partners are valid as well. We have yet to see how MLB's new release-of-information system will function, but if Sportradar and MGM are favored over other entities with info-release, that itself could be deemed a manipulative act that places non-preferred gamblers at a disadvantage, which at some point down the road, depending on future state and federal legislative action, could be illegal and lead to lawsuits.

Sidebar: That means ejection statistics will now be sports betting fodder. Sports betting may be legal, but the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League remains free.

Conclusion: As West and MLBPA representatives alike said back in May 2018, the gambling ban reversal is not good for athlete and umpire safety. While it may prove financially beneficial for the league in the short run, it could provoke Tim Donaghy-level controversy and tarnish the league's reputation if a system safeguard were to fail, whether or not a bad actor exists inside or outside the league office.

That said, no private sports league is above the law, so MLB must do its best to adapt to it. That's largely what has happened here, with MLB seeking to create a central repository and controlled-release system for lineup information. The only issue is whether the league has gotten too greedy with its preferred partners in Sportradar and MGM, who I'm sure would pay top dollar for even a two-second advantage, or whether it will level the playing field by making an official feed available to everyone, at the same time.

Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Pace of Play in Hernandez-MLB Lawsuit Slows to Crawl

As Spring Training kicks into high gear and we prepare for a third MLB season touched by the pending lawsuit of an umpire alleging racially-motivated discrimination, we catch up with the offseason docket activity for Angel's Hernandez v. The Office of the Commissioner of Baseball et al suit.

Quick Recap: In the fall of 2018, we discussed the merits of Hernandez's July 2017 case against the league from a statistical point of view: we found that Hernandez's Replay Review performance as measured by strict quantity of overturned calls outpaced that of at least five other crew chiefs in 2015, 2016, and 2017, and was better than two other chiefs in 2014. As for 2018, Hernandez's regular season Replay performance placed him better than three other crew chiefs, but add in the postseason, even with the three overturns-in-a-game, and one other crew chief still experienced more overturns.
Related LabelUEFL History for MLB Umpire "Angel Hernandez"

Former MLB VP Bob Watson also spoke out.
In fact, Hernandez has never led the crew chief list in overturned calls since replay expanded, and has always performed better than at least one crew chief promoted in his place. Hernandez's original complaint indicated that his ball/strike numbers were better than league average.

Given former MLB VP of Rules and On-Field Operations Bob Watson's prior complaint about MLB's purported lack of diversity in leadership roles (and Crew Chief is a leadership role), we previously concluded that we need more data in order to seek explanation for MLB's decision not to promote Hernandez, and that Hernandez's amended complaint requesting more information from the League would help in accomplishing this analysis. In other words, Hernandez's charges aren't entirely out of left field and they merit investigation.

As we said in July 2017, whether Hernandez is a "good" or "bad umpire," or otherwise is a red herring. As evidence to support charges of unlawful discrimination, Hernandez produced data alleging that MLB has a habitual pattern of not hiring minorities. When it comes to the regular Crew Chief role, Hernandez's complaint indicated that MLB virtually shut out any and all people of color since Rich Garcia chiefed in the 1990s. The gravity of such a charge goes far beyond Hernandez and can't be dismissed by the very tired, "he's just a bad umpire" argument.
Related PostAngel Hernandez, MLB, and Discrimination (Part 1) (7/12/17).
Related PostAngel Hernandez, MLB, and Discrimination (Part 2) (7/13/17).

When faced with an impending request to open its secret files, MLB filed and was granted a request for confidentiality, and at last we spoke, we awaited the two parties to continue discovery and figure out exactly what documents would be shared.
Related PostHernandez's Lawsuit Seeks Replay - A Review of Our Stats (12/4/18).

Where We are Now: Since December 2018, MLB filed more motions to dismiss the suit, answered the amended complaint, Hernandez's team opposed MLB's motion to dismiss, etc.—rather boiler plate legal mumbo jumbo.

January looked like a scene from Boston Legal.
There was a rather amusing sequence in January 2019 when a plaintiff's attorney tried getting himself approved to appear in New York, the court replied that his motion was deficient, and this back-and-forth continued on for about two weeks with more attempts before an amended motion was ultimately granted.

But after this comic relief, the parties got down to business.

In February, Judge J. Paul Oetken referred elements of the case to Magistrate Judge Gabriel W. Gorenstein, and the magistrate subsequently denied without prejudice Hernandez's motion for discovery.

In other words, on January 28, Hernandez's team requested certain documents from MLB. MLB responded on January 30, and the court subsequently denied Hernandez's motion for discovery on February 5.

In the month since this denial (2/5/19 to 3/5/19), there was no activity in this case, which tends to follow the speed of this trial ever since it was first filed in the US District Court for the Southern District of Ohio on July 3, 2017, though transferring it to New York at the conclusion of the regular season in 2018 spurred some activity, albeit temporarily.

Conclusion: Here we are—Hernandez wants sensitive documents and MLB doesn't want to give them to him (why would an employer want to share confidential documents anyway?). That means we have a stalemate and, more to the point, an increasing possibility bearing mention that this case won't make much meaningful progress before Hernandez's Crew Chief and World Series windows—from a statistical/performance standpoint—are slammed shut by Father Time.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor at a Yankees game.
The Judge's Chambers at Yankee Stadium could render a quicker verdict...but it probably wouldn't be all that fair.

Most likely, the money matter is not MLB's most pressing issue, compared to the optics of having Hernandez serve as an on-field Crew Chief or World Series umpire in contravention of the Chief Baseball Officer's desires. If the league is planning to pay the plaintiff, it'd likely prefer to do so in a way that would limit Hernandez's on-field exposure as -cc or -ws.

Succinctly, this lawsuit has encountered a rain delay, and Hernandez might get called in early by curfew before much significance comes of it.

To be clear, we don't know at present whether MLB has violated any laws or otherwise civilly harmed Hernandez because the very trial designed to answer that question is stuck in a holding pattern. Hernandez accused MLB of wrongdoing, and we're somewhere in the middle of trying to figure that out in a stalled process slower than an extra-inning at-bat featuring Javier Baez, David Ortiz, and Don Mattingly as a coach.

Thus, in a sport that has recently placed such a strong emphasis on pace of play, it would appear that in this situation, we might just be observing an attempt to run out the clock.

Monday, March 4, 2019

Of Bullpen Cups & Balls - A Baseball Magic Trick

What is the rule when a batted baseball lodges in a paper cup sitting in a foul-territory bullpen? Is the ball dead for a two-base award or do we play on when the fielder tries to throw it back in? Such a play occurred in Spring Training's Grapefruit League as Cardinals batter Jeremy Martinez's hit to Marlins right fielder Magneuris Sierra took a detour into St. Louis' first-base dugout.

What is the ruling for a ball entering a cup?
The Play: With two on (R1, R2) and two out, batter Martinez hit a fair ground ball down the right field line, whereupon it entered the on-field bullpen in foul territory down the right-field line. Outfielder Sierra ran to play the ball, throwing it toward second base as it became apparent that the "ball" was actually wedged in a discarded paper cup, the force of the projectile bouncing on the infield dirt enough to dislodge the ball as R1 and R2 scored, with batter-runner Martinez jogging into third base.

The Call: Martinez wound up at second base while both runners were permitted to score. Read on for the proper ruling.

The Rule: Generally, a ball remains in play until an umpire calls "Time." All that we need to know here is whether the ball fell out of play by going into the bullpen or lodging in the cup. Official Baseball Rule 5.06(b)(4)(F) discusses base awards for balls falling out of play, with the relevant provisions of this rule as follows:
Two bases, if a fair ball bounces or is deflected into the stands outside the first or third base foul lines; or if it goes through or under a field fence, or through or under a scoreboard, or through or under shrubbery or vines on the fence; or if it sticks in such fence, scoreboard, shrubbery or vines.
The batted ball appeared to enter, but not immediately exit via rebound, an on-field bullpen. The Universal Ground Rules do not address on-field bullpens, but individual stadiums with such features generally discuss the on-field bullpen in their ballpark-specific ground rules. For example, the following San Francisco's bullpen rule:
A ball is deemed to be lodged if, in the umpire’s judgment, it has become unplayable by going behind equipment, the seating area or otherwise.
Ball enters the bullpen seating area and rebounds out of the seating area back onto the playing field: In Play. 
The language is identical for Oakland and Tampa Bay. Chicago's Wrigley Field had a similar rule before the Cubs relocated the on-field bullpen to below the right-field stands.

Did (and if so, when) the ball fall out of play?
Analysis: There are two separate issues regarding this play, the second of which relies on the outcome of the first.

First, we must determine whether the ball has become stuck in a bullpen. There's a strong chance that Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium doesn't cover the issue as San Francisco/Oakland/Tampa does, which sets us up for an umpiring elastic clause decision.

In general, however, the SF/OAK/TB provision about a ball becoming unplayable should apply here; we see our 1B Umpire signaling "safe," as if to say, that ball is still playable and thus live.

With our umpire having ruled the ball live, we turn to issue #2, which is the ball-in-cup problem.

The ball and cup break apart after bouncing.
We know that the MLB Umpire Manual interpretation concerning a ball that enters a player's uniform states that "Time" should be called and the umpire should then use common sense and fair play to place the runners in a "nullify the act" standard. We also know this interpretation doesn't apply to a ball lodging in a player's glove, which instead should be treated as a live ball.

But what of a cup?

The MLBUM interpretation for 5.06(b)(4)(F) holds that a ball should be deemed lodged if it "sticks in a fence, scoreboard, shrubbery or vines located on the playing field...[or if it] goes behind a field tarp or wall padding without leaving the playing field."

Johnny Damon drew a cup lodge 2B in 2001.
Precedent: In 2001, Athletics batter Johnny Damon hit a ball that rolled into and became stuck in a plastic cup at the Oakland Coliseum. While Boston outfielder Trot Nixon tried to throw the ball/cup contraption, Damon circled the bases for an apparent inside-the-park home run until umpires ordered Damon back to second base, ruling the play dead under the auspices of this very same lodged-ball rule.

Conclusion: The proper call here is a dead-ball two-base award for a lodged ball. If the umpire deems the ball playable in the bullpen—and that's a judgment call that hinges on your interpretation of "playable" (I'm personally not looking to have an outfielder fish out a ball from behind a steel bench...I can't even guarantee that's the same ball)—we play on, but if the umpire deems it unplayable because it rolled behind the bullpen bench/equipment, we treat it as a lodged ball as in 5.06(b)(4)(F). Assuming that the ball was deemed playable, we have a ball-in-a-cup being thrown toward the infield. By rule and interpretation, for both possibilities (bullpen lodge or cup lodge), this is a lodged ball and is treated in the same fashion: two-bases pursuant to 5.06(b)(4)(F). Score R2, place R1 at third base, and put the batter at second.

Wrap: Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Spring Training), 3/2/19 | Video as follows:

Thursday, February 28, 2019

Top 10 MLB Hothead Players by Ejection Frequency

On the occasion of Bryce Harper's Phillies contract, we revisit the subject of baseball's biggest hothead player, as measured by the umpire ejection sabermetric value, Games Per Ejection (GPE). Using our historic benchmark of David Ortiz's 175 GPE (aka "the Papi line"), we crown MLB's leading active hothead position player.

History: We first tracked hothead statistics in 2015, finding that dugout phone-smashing David Ortiz held the league lead amongst active players for ejection frequency.

At the time of our June 2015 study, Big Papi's one ejection per 197 games played led all players with at least 2,000 games played, a number of minimum games that limited our study's scope to veteran ballplayers.
Related PostDetermining The League's Biggest Hothead (It's Big Papi) (6/11/15).

In 2016, we repeated the study on the occasion of Ortiz's impending retirement from the game, but dropped our minimum games played barrier from 2,000 to just 500. Accordingly, we found that youngster Bryce Harper had taken over the top spot, by a significant margin, followed by Matt Kemp, Yunel Escobar, BJ / Melvin / Back to BJ Upton, Manny Machado, and Joey Votto had all eclipsed the Ortiz benchmark, which had increased in frequency to 175 GPE, thanks to additional ejection activity after the 2015 study (also see the related post for a note as to why we don't include pitchers).
Related PostPassing the Torch - Papi Out, Harper In as Biggest Hothead (5/13/16).

Harper keeps his crown as MLB's #1 Hothead.
After taking the past few seasons off, we revisit the hothead discussion for active position players. Here are the results (minimum 500 games played). You can also click each player's name that appears in the accompanying table for their UEFL ejection report history.

Legend and Definitions
Ejection Rate: Measured in Games-Per-Ejection (GPE).
GPE: Games played divided by their ejections.
EPS: Ejections per Season, based on 162 GP.

Active MLB Position Players with Highest Ejection Frequency
#Player NameGames Per Ejection
(GPE [GP/EJ])
Ejections Per Season
(EPS [E/GP*162])
1Bryce Harper841.92
2Matt Kemp991.63
3Yunel Escobar1101.47
4Marwin Gonzalez1331.22
5BJ / Melvin Upton1471.10
6Ian Kinsler1640.99
7Josh Donaldson1770.92
8Yasiel Puig1780.91
9Joey Votto1970.82
10Russell Martin2010.80

To summarize:
> Bryce Harper remains the league's biggest hothead player, from 77 GPE in 2016 to 84 GPE in 2018. This is significant, because Gary Sheffield now reclaims the #2 all-time hothead mark, minimum 500 games played, with 78 GPE. For those wondering, #1 belongs to Milton Bradley (55 GPE).
> Matt Kemp and Yunel Escobar have increased their ejection frequency (EPS) since 2016.
> Marwin Gonzalez, Josh Donaldson, and Yasiel Puig had too few games played to be included on the 2016 hothead list. Because these three players kept their ejection frequency up, they are featured in the 2019 list's Top 10 MLB Hothead Players.
> Slots #6 Kinsler and above have been ejected more frequently than David Ortiz. #7 Donaldson and below fall on the less-frequent side of the Papi Line of 175 GPE.
> Here are the 2019 rankings for others who appeared on the 2016 list, but have since fallen out of the Top 10: 5 Manny Machado: #14 (232 GPE), 7 Troy Tulowitzky: #11 (214 GPE), 8 AJ Pierzynski: Retired (187 GPE), 9 Justin Upton: #19 (243 GPE), 10 Carlos Gomez: #17 (238 GPE).
> Mike Trout retains his crown as Cool & Collected. Trout and many other MLB'ers have never been ejected in their playing careers.

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

MLB Taps Atlantic League for Reported Robot Ump Test

MLB is reportedly one step closer to robot umpires, signing an agreement with the independent Atlantic League to test rule changes, including robo-umps to call balls and strikes. Trackman radar devices will be installed at all eight stadiums of the independent Atlantic League in anticipation of the techno-umpire experiment, which is just one expected element of the Trackman incorporation.

Although Baseball America's report sounds quite progressive—as Atlantic League of Professional Baseball President Rick White said, "We kind of had this happy intersection of our intentions and [MLB's] initiatives where it is now formalized"—it's far from a finished product and does more for White's league than simply calling balls and strikes as the ALPB makes a deal with MLB it can hardly refuse.

Prepare for an increase in edge strike calls.
Trackman is the name of MLBAM Statcast's field-tracking component, of which PitchCast is the ball/strike module, and is the successor to SportVision's pitch f/x technology.

As such, Trackman itself helps White in his goal of getting his players seen by big league teams. Because Trackman keeps tabs on athletes, mainly in the pitching and hitting department, such as measuring spin rate or other pitch/hit metrics, it should give scouts a better chance at analyzing players as they already do with those in affiliated ball, who play at minor league stadiums with Trackman installed.

MLBAM is also set to take over the electronic scorekeeping function of the Atlantic League, meaning that all league stats will be transmitted to all 30 MLB teams, another boost for scouting athletes who play in the independent league. That alone should be good for business, another draw for athletes hoping to crack the MiLB barrier.

Most relevant, however, is the concept of impending MLB and MiLB expansion, which MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred discussed in 2016, before more recently revisiting the issue in 2018, anticipating an expansion and naming several potential cities, including Portland (Oregon), Las Vegas, Charlotte (North Carolina), Nashville, Montreal, Vancouver, and even the country of Mexico.

PCL's Aviators (formerly 51s) plays in Vegas.
If baseball expands from 30 to 32 teams, its minor league feeder system will grow as well, leading to a cascading expansion draft that will turn to the independent leagues, as expansion outpaces scholastic-based matriculation (by comparison, the NFL has 32 teams, NHL has 31 [will be 32 in 2021], NBA has 30, and MLS has 24).

Accordingly, this could be ALPB's chance to set itself apart from the independent American Association, CanAm, and Pecos Leagues by cozying up to affiliated ball, further drawing in expansion-minded scouts.

Link: Introduction to UEFL f/x.
But for every give, there's also a take, and for Rob Manfred's MLB, that take is rules experimentation, including the expected regular use of Trackman's PitchCast module to call balls and strikes during live gameplay for the first time in professional baseball history.

As we've mentioned several times, problems arise when raw data from PitchCast, or Pitch f/x before it, are taken at face value. Simply put, there are too many variables prone to error—px, pz, sz_bot, sz_top—to, at this time, render a consistently accurate output.

In 2018, we rolled out UEFL f/x to address the shortcomings of the PitchCast technology when it comes to evaluating whether an umpire has properly officiated a ball or strike call based on the premise that an umpire cannot be deemed to have missed a call that evidence cannot conclusively prove was incorrect.
Related PostAsk UEFL - About Close Call Sports' Strike Zone QOC (8/1/18).

UEFL f/x incorporates our long-standing Kulpa and Miller Rules (UEFL Rule 6-2-b-1 and -2), which acknowledge the margin-of-error SportVision admitted was prevalent in its Pitch f/x product. MLBAM, on the other hand, has kept PitchCast's errors largely under wraps.
Related PostUEFL f/x vs K-Zone and the Player-Umpire Disconnect (10/4/18).

SMT SportVision sued Major League Baseball Advanced Media in May 2018, claiming that MLBAM stole its proprietary and patented PFX technology and incorporated the infringing information into Trackman's PitchCast, which powers BAM's Gameday data. Accordingly, we would understand the motivation to play PitchCast's inner-workings rather close to the vest.
Related PostPitch f/x SMT Sportvision Sues MLBAM for StatCast 'Theft' (5/21/18).

An exaggerated illustration of sz_bot/top error.
We have also detailed—several times over—baseball's habitual problem when it comes to calculating a batter's vertical strike zone (the sz_bot and sz_top values). Despite Commissioner Manfred's May 2018 comments regarding robot umpires, and his claim that PitchCast's accuracy is "way up—way better than what it was a year ago," the fundamental problem remains: Manfred refers to a pitch calling accuracy that, by its very definition, assumes that sz_bot and sz_top are accurate to begin with (when they most assuredly are not).

In other words, Manfred, when talking about accuracy, is referring to PitchCast variables such as px (horizontal pitch location) and pz (vertical location), and not sz_bot/sz_top, which we know are problematic.
Related PostManfred Talks Robot Umps - Tech is "Way Up" (5/30/18).

The two leagues will now have to work out a complex set of procedures and parameters for implementing Trackman PitchCast into live gameplay. For instance, what happens when the computer misses a pitch in the first inning and is then rendered useless for the remainder of the game? When will an umpire be authorized to overrule the technology?

In 2016, for instance, Pitch f/x malfunctioned ahead of an ejection, and the mistake wasn't corrected until well after the game's conclusion. If PitchCast is to call balls and strikes in real-time, these sorts of mistakes would prove catastrophic, and worse, undetectably so, if the pitcher were repeatedly peppering the same part of the zone.
Related PostDude, What Happened Last Night? About Pitch f/x Error (8/30/16).

MLB's agreement with the Atlantic League does not specify a timeframe as to the incorporation of the expected Trackman experiment, although the ALPB will begin introducing some of these changes at MLB's direction ahead of the 2019 season. The MLB-ALPB joint press release referred to the Arizona Fall League as an example of the type of experimental rule implementation methodology MLB plans to institute.

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

2019 UEFL Draft Prospectus - Umpire Stats Recap

As the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League Draft kicks into gear, we present the annual UEFL Draft Prospectus, including statistics and sabermetrics for ejections and Replay Review outcomes for MLB and MiLB call-up umpires eligible for the 2019 season.

Remember, the final day to register for the 2019 UEFL season is March 27, 2019, though the final day to submit unrestricted umpire selections in all classifications (one Crew Chief, two Primary Umpires, and two Secondary Umpires) is March 19. For more information as to UEFL Draft procedures and to register your umpire crew, visit the accompanying link.
Related Post2019 UEFL Draft and Registration Now Open (2/20/19).

Additional related links include the 2019 MLB Umpire Crew List and the UEFL Umpire Roster & Profiles page, which also includes game assignment history for the MiLB call-up umpires.

Historical Information and Draft Prospectus - 2019 UEFL Season
The following section provides statistics regarding top points-getter umpires and other leaders during past UEFL seasons. This information may also be found via the UEFL Portal's Historical Data page, which has been updated through the 2018 season. Umpires with names in strikeout are retired or otherwise ineligible for selection in the UEFL Draft.

General Information
Most Ejections Since 2005: 74 (Joe West), 67 (Marty Foster), 60 (Sam Holbrook).
Most Ejections Since 2014: 26 (Will Little), 24 (West), 23 (Vic Carapazza), 19 (Foster, Holbrook, Bill Welke, John Tumpane), 18 (Dan Bellino, Greg Gibson, Mark Ripperger).

2018 Umpire Leaderboard
"Perfect Crew" (Most Points): -cc Welke (19 pts), P1/2 West (31 pts) & Brian Gorman (25 pts), S1/2 Tumpane (21 pts) & Ted Barrett (21 pts).
Ejections: Little (9); Fletcher, G Gibson, Gorman, Hamari, Wendelstedt (6); Cooper, West (5).
Replay Points: Fieldin Culbreth (9); Chad Fairchild, Gorman (8); Tumpane (7).
[Most Replays Experienced]: Gorman, Carapazza, Carlos Torres, Chris Guccione (24).
Review Accuracy-RAP: Fairchild (.722); Culbreth, Tim Timmons (.714); Tumpane (.684).
Total Points: West (31); Gorman, Tumpane (25), Tripp Gibson (23), T Barrett (21).
Crew Chief Points: Welke (19); Gorman (14); Jerry Meals (13).
UEFL Awards: Best-T Barrett, Promising-Hamari & Blaser, Honorable-T Barrett & Cuzzi.

2017 Umpire Leaderboard
"Perfect Crew" (Most Points): -cc West (23 pts), P1/2 Little (26 pts) & Carapazza (22 pts), S1/2 Mark Wegner (23 pts) & Fairchild (18 pts).
Ejections: 10 (Torres), 7 (HolbrookWelke).
Replay Points: 9 (Fairchild, Wegner, West), 8 (Carapazza).
[Most replays Experienced]: 29 (G Gibson), 26 (Larry Vanover), 25 (Jim Reynolds).
Review Accuracy-RAP: 100.0% (Dale Scott), 87.5% (Pat Hoberg & Ryan Blakney), 81.8% (Fairchild).
Total Pts: 26 (Little), 24 (Wegner), 22 (Carapazza), 21 (Fairchild), 20 (Chris Segal).
Crew Chief Pts: 23 (West), 18 (T Barrett & Tom Hallion), 16 (Reynolds), 13 (Paul Emmel).
UEFL AwardsBest-WegnerPromising-Blaser/FairchildHonorable-Tumpane.

2016 Umpire Leaderboard
"Perfect Crew": -cc Mike Everitt (15), P1/2 Hoberg (29) & Little (24), S 1/2 Alan Porter (19) & Holbrook (19).
Ejections: 8 (Scott & Todd Tichenor), 7 (Hoberg), 6 (Everitt & West).
Replay Points: 9 (T Barrett & Quinn Wolcott), 8 (Hallion & Porter), 7 (DJ Reyburn).
[Most Replays Experienced]: 31 (Dan Iassogna), 30 (Timmons), 27 (Mark Carlson).
Review Accuracy-RAP: .800 (Wolcott), .750 (David Rackley), .722 (Hallion), .714 (T Barrett).
Total Pts: 29 (Hoberg), 24 (Little), 23 (Porter & West), 21 (Holbrook & Hamari).
Crew Chief Pts: 15 (Everitt), 14 (Kellogg & Winters), 13 (Gorman, Vanover & West).
UEFL Awards: Best-GuccionePromising-Holbrook/PorterHonorable-Rob Drake/John Hirschbeck.

The prospectus continues after the page break for years 2010-2015.

Monday, February 25, 2019

NCAA New Rule - Batter K'd for Intent-to-Draw HBP

The NCAA Baseball Rules Committee adopted a new rule for 2019, opting to penalize a batter who leans in to try and draw a HBP by having the umpire call a strike. One week into the season and it just happened, with an ejection for arguing it to boot, issued mere seconds after the head coach strolled out to question the umpire's decision.

Umpire prepares to eject a K-arguing coach.
The Play: It all happened during Army's second game of the young college baseball season against LSU when West Point batter Drake Titus fell behind in the count to LSU pitcher Chase Costello in the top of the 7th inning with one out and two on (R1, R3). With a 2-2 count, Drake's body made contact with Costello's pitch, HP Umpire Eddie Newsom ruling Drake out for, essentially, leaning into the pitch to bail himself out of a two-strike count. Army Head Coach Jim Foster found himself ejected from the game for arguing Newsom's decision.

The Rule (NCAA): NCAA changed Rule 8.2.d.1 after the 2018 season to penalize the batter with a strike and not awarding first base if, in the judgment of the umpire, the batter makes an intentional movement to be hit by a pitch, regardless of where the pitch is located. The guideline goes on to say that if a batter freezes in the box and is hit by the pitch, he shall be awarded first base (prior to 2019, the penalty would simply be a dead ball):
A batter may not make a movement to intentionally get hit by the pitch, regardless of the location of the pitch. He must also avoid being hit whenever possible, unless the pitch is within the batter's box occupied by the batter. If the batter's action is deemed intentional, then:
a) If the ball is in the strike zone when it touches the batter, or if the batter moves to intentionally get hit or freezes to allow a pitch that is not within the batter's box to hit him, the ball is dead, it shall be called a strike and the batter is not awarded first base.
The Rule (OBR): It should be noted that professional baseball (OBR) has no such rule concerning an automatic intentional HBP strike, but does require a batter to make an "attempt to avoid being touched by the ball." If an OBR batter fails to avoid being touched, the penalty is simply a dead ball and the pitch is called a ball or strike depending on pitch location (Rule 5.05(b)(2)).

The Rule (NFHS): High school is similar to pro in that "if [the batter] permits the pitched ball to touch him...the hitting of the batter is disregarded except that the ball is dead. It is a strike or ball depending on location of the pitch." One related baseball rules difference with NFHS is that if a pitched ball touches a batter's loose garment "not worn properly," the batter is not entitled to first base (whereas, for instance, under OBR, it would be a base award).


Umpire-in-Chief rules a HBP strike.
Analysis: There's really not much to analyze from the accompanying in regard to the umpire's judgment—if he deems the batter moved intentionally into the pitch, then the proper call is a strike (strike three in this case). Though the play was reviewed, this is still a judgment call and as a matter of principle, we don't pick apart judgment. Perhaps we might say this is a more likely occurrence with a two-strike count than with a batter-ahead count, but that's neither here nor there. The only analysis here is rather mechanical.

First, our umpire properly rules the play dead by announcing "Time"—the pitched ball has contacted the batter and the ball is dead. Next, he points to the batter's infraction at home plate and indicates the penalty for the violation; in this case, strike three. Because the ball is dead on strike three, the batter is out and all runners hold their positions. The batter walks back to the dugout without argument while the head coach arrives at home plate.

Did the batter place his elbow into the ball?
We see our plate umpire display a "stop sign" mechanic—both because issues of balls/strikes cannot be argued by a coach who has exited the dugout and, likely, in response to something the coach has said. The coach in this case shall be permitted an explanation and clarification as to the new-for-2019 ruling and the rule itself, but shall be warned upon any attempt to argue the call.

Leaving one's position to argue balls and strikes—and the related calls of check swings, warnings, balks, and HBP-related decisions—violates one of baseball's Standards for Removal from the Game.
Related PostEjections - What and Wherefore? Standards for Removal (3/29/17).

Video as follows: