Monday, May 26, 2014

MLB Ejection & Replay Review Stats: Week 8 Sabermetrics

Ejection & Instant Replay Review Statistics and Sabermetrics are now available for MLB Week 8. As the numbers and trends begin to form, Close Call Sports and the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League continues with the strategic statistics reporting, the first measure of umpire-centric sabermetrics in professional baseball. Visit Instant Replay Review Statistics 101: Week 1 Sabermetrics for an introduction to Ejection & Replay Review definitions and terms, including Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP), also known as QOC (Quality of Correctness), Replay Percentage of Success (RPS), alternatively, 1.000 - RAP = RPS, and Manager's Challenge Success Percentage (CSP). Also included is Team Success Percentage (TSP), which includes all Replay Reviews; both Manager's Challenges and Crew Chief Reviews.

With Week 8 of the MLB Regular Season in the books, the UEFL recaps traditional ejections, plus professional baseball's "this time it counts" living experiment with Instant Replay Reviews.

NEW! We begin this week's sabermetric analysis with umpire ejections. Our sample size is n=60.
"Team most active" (Team with most Ejections): Tampa Bay Rays, NY Yankees - 5.
"Team least active" (Team with least Ejections): 9 Tied - 1.
"Manager ejections leader" (Manager ejected most often): Rick Renteria - 3 (1.000 QOC Y).
"Player ejections leader" (Player ejected most often): Daniel Murphy - 2 (.500 QOC Y).
"Umpire leader" (Umpire with most Ejections): Toby Basner, Fieldin Culbreth - 4 (Both 1.000).
"Crew most active" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Ejections): Fieldin Culbreth - 8 (.750).
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest Simple QOC): Basner, Tim Timmons - 1.000 in 3/3.
"Overall QOC percentage" (Overall QOC Y value): .750 (33 Y / 11 N) + 16 Irrecusable = 60 Total.
"Team Status Pre-Ejection" (Winning-Losing-Tied [W-L-T] Record prior to Ejection): 11-32-17.
"Team Status Post-Ejection" (Game Record [W-L]): 19-41. (Delta: 8-9; WPCT: .471).

Next up is the category of Instant Replay Reviews. Our sample size is n=375.

Key bullet points:
"Team Most Used" (Made use of Replay Review most often): Chicago Cubs, Oakland A's - 20.
"Team Least Used" (Least use of Replay): Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles - 6.
"Manager's Challenge Leaders" (Most challenges filed): Rick Renteria - 19 (.526 CSP)
"Most successful Manager" (Manager with highest CSP): Mike Redmond - .909 in 10/11.
"League average Manager" (Average CSP for all Managers): .522
"Least successful Manager" (Manager with lowest CSP): Bryan Price - .250 in 2/8.
"Most successful team in review" (Team with highest TSP): Atlanta Braves - .800.
"Least successful team in review" (Team with lowest TSP): Cincinnati Reds - .182.
"Umpire most questioned" (Most Replay Reviews): Jim Reynolds - 12 (.583 RAP).
"Crew most questioned" (Crew Chief whose crew has most Reviews): Larry Vanover - 24 (.292).
"Most accurate umpire" (Umpire with greatest RAP): Bellino, Carapazza - 1.000 in 5/5.
"Umpire of greatest overturn" (Umpire with lowest RAP): Hoberg, Scott, Tumpane - .000 in 0/3.
"Overall affirmation or QOC percentage" (Overall RAP): .517 (194/375 Affirmed Replay Reviews).
Team Status Pre-Review (Winning or Losing prior to review [Win-Loss-Tied]): 124-156-93.
Team Status Post-Review (Game Record [W-L]): 181-192. (Delta: 57-36; WPCT: .613).

Actual data (Raw Data for Replay Reviews):
Games Played: 744 of 2430.
Replay Reviews & Decisions Rendered: 375 (on pace for 1,224 [+69 from last wk] Replay Reviews)
- Crew Chief Reviews (Replay Reviews initiated by the Umpire Chief): 55 (15%), .842 RAP.
- Manager's Challenges (Replay Reviews initiated by the Club Manager): 320 (85%), .467 RAP.

- By Inning: 6|7 (49), 9 (48), 8 (47), 5 (43), 3 (33), 1|2 (31), 4 (29), Extra Innings (13).
- By Type: Safe/Out (287), HR/Not (29), Rule 7.13 (15), HBP/Foul (13), Catch/Trap (9), Fair/Foul (8).
- By Day of Week: Sun (70), Wed (58), Sat (56), Fri (52), Mon (50), Thurs (44), Tues (43).

Teams Most Used - Quantity of Replay Reviews (both Crew Chief & Manager's Challenge)
1. Oakland Athletics: 20 (10 Crew Chief Reviews [.800 RAP], 10 Challenges [.600 RAP]).
1. Chicago Cubs: 20 (1 Crew Chief Review [1.000 RAP], 19 Challenges [.474 RAP]).
3. Toronto Blue Jays: 19 (2 Crew Chief Reviews [1.000 RAP], 17 Challenges [.706 RAP]).
4. Tampa Bay Rays: 18 (18 Challenges [.667 RAP]).
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: 17 (1 Crew Chief Review [1.000 RAP], 16 Challenges [.438 RAP]).

Most Successful Managers - Managers with Highest CSP
1. Mike Redmond (Miami Marlins): .909 (10/11 Challenges Overturned).
2. Bud Black (San Diego Padres): .857 (6/7 Challenges Overturned).
3. Fredi Gonzalez (Atlanta Braves): .800 (8/10 Challenges Overturned).
4. Joe Girardi (New York Yankees): .750 (9/12 Challenges Overturned).
5. Bruce Bochy (San Francisco Giants): .667 (8/12 Challenges Overturned).
5. Buck Showalter (Baltimore Orioles): .667 (4/6 Challenges Overturned).

Least Successful Managers - Managers with Lowest CSP
1. Bryan Price (Cincinnati Reds): .250 (2/8 Challenges Overturned).
2. John Gibbons (Toronto Blue Jays): .294 (5/17 Challenges Overturned).
3. Terry Francona (Cleveland Indians): .300 (3/10 Challenges Overturned).
3. Robin Ventura (Chicago White Sox): .300 (3/10 Challenges Overturned).
5. Joe Maddon (Tampa Bay Rays): .333 (6/18 Challenges Overturned).

Team Success Percentage - TSP
1. ATL - .800
2. MIA - .733
3. BAL, SD, SF - .667
6. NYY - .643
7. HOU - .583
8. COL, DET - .571
10. MIL - .556
11. LAD - .546
12. TEX - .534
13. PIT - .529
14. BOS, CHC, KC, LAA, NYM - .500
League Average - .483
19. PHI - .462
20. MIN - .444
21. STL - .429
22. WAS - .417
23. ARI, CWS, SEA, TB - .333
27. CLE - .308
28. OAK - .300
29. TOR - .263
30. CIN - .182

Umpire Accuracy - Review Affirmation Percentage (RAP Ranking)
1. Dan Bellino, Vic Carapazza - 1.000 (5/5)
3. Clint Fagan, Chris Guccione, Mike Estabrook - 1.000 (4/4)
6. Jordan Baker - 1.000 (3/3)
7. Chris Segal, Jim Wolf, Eric Cooper - 1.000 (2/2)
10. Scott Barry, John Hirschbeck, Angel Campos - 1.000 (1/1)
13. Greg Gibson - .857 (6/7)
14. Mark Wegner - .833 (5/6)
15. Tripp Gibson - .800 (4/5)
16. Tim Timmons, Rob Drake, Hunter Wendelstedt - .750
19. Manny Gonzalez, DJ Reyburn, Mark Ripperger - .714
...39. League Average - .520...
66. Adrian Johnson - .286
67. Toby Basner, Gerry Davis, Mike DiMuro, Ed Hickox - .250
71. CB Bucknor, Kerwin Danley, Marty Foster - .200
74. Angel Hernandez - .167 (1/6)
75. Pat Hoberg, Dale Scott, John Tumpane, Stu Scheurwater, Jeff Gosney, Jeff Kellogg, Tom Woodring - .000

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